Redirecting Capital to Overcome Global Renewable Energy Investment Imbalances for a Just Energy Transition

Misaligned investment between renewable generation and enabling technologies undermines a just energy transition. Here, we develop a machine-learning optimization framework to quantify how five enabling technologies shape three transition objectives-decarbonization, equity, and resilience-and to identify an efficiency-maximizing allocation. Our analysis reveals that investment distribution is decoupled from transition performance. Underfunded hydrogen infrastructure and energy storage drive three-dimensional progress, whereas heavily capitalized power grids and electrified transport alongside underfunded carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) impede decarbonization by locking in carbon-intensive systems. This imbalance stems from narrow climate policies that cause insufficient funding for enabling technology and a concentration of capital in short-term storage and grid expansion. We propose raising hydrogen infrastructure and storage to 6% of renewable investment and reallocating overcapitalized power grids and electrified transport surplus (96.77%) to CCUS (5.56%) and advanced storage (21.16%). This strategy strengthens technology synergies and provides intervention pathways to unlock just-transition potential.