Regional Variation in Residential Aged Care Provision in Australia: Targets and Trajectories

Background and objectives: Population-based planning targets have been a feature of the Australian aged care policy landscape for decades. Changes in the way places are allocated are being introduced that could put at risk equitable access to residential aged places. This study sets out the regional distribution of places and shows how this might worsen under new policy arrangements. Research design and methods: Population estimates and projections are combined with the locations of current and in-development aged care places to test six planning populations and two levels of supply across 336 small areas. Results: Over the next 10 years, virtually all regions will see an increase in the number of older people and an increase in the 85+ population as a share of the 70+ population. In 2023, there was a shortfall against the target of nearly 25,000 places nationally; with no new allocations and the lower interim target, this could be as high as 55,000 places in 2033. The 85+ planning population presents the most inequitable scenario. Discussion and implications:These results inform aged care planning by quantifying the effect of policy parameters on the regional distribution of residential aged care services. Policy imperatives suggested by the findings include strong regional stewardship of residential care supply, robust monitoring of equity objectives, and regular evaluation of other program objectives.