Scenario Simulations for the Peak of Provincial Household CO2 Emissions in China Based on the STIRPAT Model

As household CO2 emissions (HCEs) are a key source of China's CO2 emissions, exploring the mitigation potential of HCEs is significant to achieve China's 2030 emission target. However, rare literatures analyzed the future evolution of HCEs from the provincial perspective. Here, we employ the STIRPAT model and build three scenarios (i.e., baseline, low and high scenarios) to investigate the trajectories and peak times of HCEs in 30 provinces up to 2040. The results show that 25 provinces can peak HCEs before 2030 in at least one scenario, while 5 provinces cannot achieve the 2030 emission target in any scenarios. Moreover, Guangxi and Hainan will maintain growth up to 2040 in all three scenarios. At the national level, China's household sector can achieve HCEs peak in all three scenarios. Further reduction of emission intensity helps national HCEs reach the peak around 2025 in the high scenario at 1063 MtCO2. The findings suggest that Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Henan, Zhejiang and Anhui are key provinces for future HCEs reductions, because they account for more than 40% of national HCEs in 2040 in all three scenarios. Energy efficiency improvement and clean energy applications will be effective for emission reductions.