Within the scaling laws paradigm, which underpins the training of large neural networks like ChatGPT and Llama, we consider a supervised regression setting and establish a strong form of the model collapse phenomenon, a critical performance degradation due to synthetic data in the training corpus. Our results show that even the smallest fraction of synthetic data (e.g., as little as 1 per 1000) can still lead to model collapse: larger and larger training sets do not enhance performance. We further investigate whether increasing model size, an approach aligned with current trends in training large language models, exacerbates or mitigates model collapse. In a simplified regime where neural networks are approximated via random projections of tunable size, we both theoretically and empirically show that larger models can amplify model collapse. Interestingly, our theory also indicates that, beyond the interpolation threshold (which can be extremely high for very large datasets), larger models may mitigate the collapse, although they do not entirely prevent it. Our theoretical findings are empirically verified through experiments on language models and neural networks for images.
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