The Collapse of the Russian Energy Model and the Reorientation of Exports to Asian Markets

The relevance of the study is determined by the need for a comprehensive understanding of the consequences of the reorientation of Russian energy exports to Asia under the pressure of sanctions amid the transformation of global energy markets. The aim of the study was to identify the extent of compensatory potential of the Asian vector of Russian energy exports in relation to the loss of European premium markets and the long-term geo-economic risks for Russia. The methodological basis of the study was based on an interdisciplinary analytical approach that combined methods of structural-institutional and comparative analysis, as well as the application of SWOT analysis. As a result, it was found that Asian markets provided only partial compensation for physical export volumes, but did not restore the level of budget revenues characteristic of the European direction. It was found that the established system of Asian reorientation was accompanied by a persistent discount to global benchmarks, which undermined the profitability of Russian supplies. It was found that China and India occupied dominant negotiating positions, using monopsony mechanisms of pricing and political control over import volumes. It was proven that logistical and infrastructural constraints, in particular the lack of storage and regasification capacity for liquefied natural gas and dependence on the “shadow fleet”, reduce the effectiveness of adaptation. It has also been established that structural changes in exports have created a new configuration of long-term risks for the Russian Federation related to technological vulnerability, transport barriers and the instability of Asian demand. It was concluded that the Asian reorientation did not provide strategic compensation for the loss of European markets and led to increased economic and political dependence on a limited circle of importers. The practical significance of the study lies in its potential use for assessing the sustainability of trade strategies under sanctions and for forecasting long-term energy policy risks at the global level