The Effects of Public Pre-K for 3-Year-olds on Early Elementary Public School Enrollment: Evidence from the DC Centralized Lottery

Universal public prekindergarten programs increasingly include 3-year-olds, but evidence on their effects on public school enrollment remains limited. This study uses data on 4,561 applicants to the District of Columbia's (DC's) Pre-K3 program (2014-2017) and a centralized admissions lottery to estimate causal impacts on early elementary enrollment. Students offered seats in school-based Pre-K3 were more likely to remain in the public education system through kindergarten and stay in the same school, suggesting stronger school continuity. These effects become less precise in the first and second grades. We find no evidence that Pre-K3 attendance affects grade retention, a less frequent outcome for younger children. Overall, results suggest that Pre-K3 may strengthen early engagement with public schools, though effects were not significant across all measures.