The Humid Republic in the Age of Trump: Changes in Southern Presidential Voting Patterns, 2016-2024

Since the late-twentieth century, the Southern United States has emerged as the beating heart of the modern Republican Party, providing it with political purpose, cultural identity, and a populous geographic base. The Republican transition to Trumpian populism did not alter the region's overwhelming allocation of electoral votes to the party in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections. Nevertheless, significant readjustments in local voting patterns unfolded across these three elections. Republicans deepened their support in Appalachian counties with White "ancestral Democratic" voting tendencies, racially mixed counties in the Deep South, and majority-Hispanic counties in Florida and Texas. Conversely, Democrats made inroads in "New South" counties experiencing demographic diversification and higher levels of affluence. Using a spatial error model, the author finds that the Hispanic population, educational attainment, age, income, and migration rates are strong predictors of Trump-era electoral shifts, while Black and conservative Christian population components are statistically insignificant. Voting readjustments during the Trump era have maintained Republican dominance in all Southern states with the exceptions of Virginia and Georgia, which appear increasingly favorable for Democrats.