The Past, Present, and Future of the Siberian Grouse (falcipennis Falcipennis) under Glacial Oscillations and Global Warming

Global climate change has a significant effect on species, as environment conditions change, causing many species' distributions to shift. During the last three million years, the earth has experienced glacial oscillations, forcing some species to survive in ice-free refugia during glacial periods and then disperse postglacially. In this study, by assessing the potential distribution of Siberian Grouse (Falcipennis falcipennis), we used Global Circular Models and Representative Concentration Pathways to model their pattern of range changes during glacial oscillations and the potential impact of present global warming. We used 158 location records of Siberian Grouse to generate a full climate model using 19 bioclimate variables in MaxEnt. We discarded variables with a correlation coefficient larger than 0.8 and relatively lower modeling contributions between each pair of correlated variables. Using the remaining variables, we created a normally uncorrelated simple climate model to predict the possible distribution of Siberian Grouse from the most recent Ice Age to present and to 2070. Then we added geographical data and the human interference index to construct a multiple factor full model to evaluate which were important in explaining the distribution of Siberian Grouse. The Total Suitability Zone (P ​≥ ​0.33) of Siberian Grouse is about 243,000 ​km2 and the Maximum Suitability Zone (P ​≥ ​0.66) is 36,000 ​km2 and is confined to the Russian Far East. Potential habitat modeling suggested that annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and the distance from lakes are the most explanatory variables for the current distribution of Siberian Grouse. The distribution center moved to the southeast during the Last Glacial Maximum and spread back to the northwest after the ice melted and temperatures rose. The total area range of Siberian Grouse experienced a dramatic loss during the Last Glacial Maximum. Global warming is presently forcing the Siberian Grouse to migrate northward with a contraction of its range. There is an urgent need to protect its habitat, because little of its Maximum Sustainable Zone is protected, although there are some large reserves in that area.