Unsupervised Supervised Learning Concept for 24-Hour Load Forecasting

An application of artificial neural networks in short-term load forecasting is described. An algorithm using an unsupervised/supervised learning concept and historical relationship between the load and temperature for a given season, day type and hour of the day to forecast hourly electric load with a lead time of 24 hours is proposed. An additional approach using functional link net, temperature variables, average load and last one-hour load of previous day is introduced and compared with the ANN model with one hidden layer load forecast. In spite of limited available weather variables (maximum, minimum and average temperature for the day) quite acceptable results have been achieved. The 24-hour-ahead forecast errors (absolute average) ranged from 2.78% for Saturdays and 3.12% for working days to 3.54% for Sundays.