Where Do Our Students Go? A Blueprint for Quantifying the Local Retention Effect and Its Reach by Tracking the Career Paths of Medical Students

Objectives: Demographic and structural changes in the healthcare sector have led to an increasing shortage of physicians in Germany in recent years, especially in rural areas. Medical schools are increasingly making curricular adjustments to enhance the appeal of urgently needed positions in the healthcare sector. Graduate tracking is essential for evaluating curricula and optimization efforts, and therefore for the targeted improvement of healthcare provision. Methods: Data on the professional activities of 333 medical graduates of the University of Witten/Herdecke (UW/H) were collected through online research based on the classification of the German physician statistics used by the German Medical Association (outpatient: employed or self-employed, inpatient: leading position or non-supervisory). Geographical analysis of the local retention effect was carried out using a geographic information system. Results: Tracking reveals a significantly higher proportion of graduates working in outpatient health care (49.7%), which is due to the 69% increase in the rate of self-employment compared to the national average. The geographical analysis reveals a strong concentration of alumni in close proximity of the alma mater (retention effect), i.e. a 207-fold increase of the alumni density within a distance of 6 km around the UW/H. The local retention effect ranges approximately 30 km, where the increase is still 12-fold. Conclusions: The methodological approach presented in this study provides a novel way for tracking alumni and quantifying their spatial distribution patterns. By demonstrating how such data can be systematically analyzed, the study offers a practical framework for the evaluation of medical faculties and can help estimating the potential impact of e.g. newly established medical faculties on local healthcare provision. Hence, this study can serve as a blueprint for similar alumni tracking approaches.