Whole-brain Modeling of Dynamic Causal Circuits in Human Cognition Using Amortized Variational Inference

Understanding dynamic mechanisms underlying cognition remains a major challenge in human neuroscience. Here, we develop, validate, and apply Multivariate Dynamical Systems Identification with Amortized Variational Inference (MDSI-AVI), a novel computational framework designed to address critical challenges in capturing asymmetric, context-dependent, whole-brain directed interactions while accounting for regional hemodynamic response variability in fMRI data. MDSI-AVI leverages simulation-based inference through forward and reverse variational inference to address the limitations of conventional variational methods in high-dimensional settings. By averaging over uncertainty in hemodynamic response parameters using forward simulation, MDSI-AVI provides well-calibrated posteriors of directed connectivity that scale efficiently to networks with hundreds of nodes. Applied to Human Connectome Project data (N=728), MDSI-AVI reveals new insights into working memory mechanisms, identifying the dorsal anterior insula as a critical hub influencing activity at the whole-brain level. We demonstrate task-dependent modulation of causal influences, where the salience network drives frontoparietal network activity, which differentially influences the default mode and sensorimotor networks depending on working memory load. These whole-brain causal interactions distinguish task conditions with high accuracy and predict working memory performance. Our framework demonstrates reproducible results across whole-brain parcellations, establishing MDSI-AVI as a robust tool for advancing our understanding of circuit dynamics in cognition and disease.