To balance the rise of China and maintain its dominant position in the Asia–Pacific region, the United States has consistently urged its allies to bear a more significant share of strategic costs and alliance obligations. This has put substantial pressure on its ally, South Korea, and has become a central issue in South Korea’s alliance strategy. From the perspective of alliance management, this paper studies the evolution of South Korea’s strategy in response to US pressure and the factors that have led to these changes. The study found that the alliance management strategy of South Korea has shifted from seeking autonomy to reinforcing its alliance with the US. There are several key factors influencing this situation, including South Korea’s concerns about possible decoupling from the United States, South Koreans’ growing unfavourable view of China, and the impasse in South Korea’s policy towards North Korea. As a result of this adjustment, the positioning of the US–ROK alliance has been clarified, and cooperation has been further reinforced.

朝鲜半岛特殊的地缘政治环境及国土分裂的现实塑造了韩国国家安全研究.在研究议题上,大国竞争与韩国的安全战略选择、朝鲜半岛分裂及朝核问题是韩国国家安全研究的主要议题,韩国国家安全研究的问题意识具有明显的本土性.在研究范式上,韩国学界广泛借助西方国际关系理论范式与研究方法.同时,考虑到本土问题与西方范式之间的错位,韩国学界也进行了反思,其中,加强外交史研究与区域国别的研究是学界提出的两条重要思路.经过几十年的发展,韩国国家安全研究的力量得到了很大的发展,大批留美归国博士是韩国国家安全研究的重要力量,这提升了韩国安全研究的学术规范性与国际化水平.另外,通过学科规划、课程设置等方面的努力,韩国国家安全研究的学科体系不断完善,人才培养体系也基本确立.通过国策研究机构、社会智库的发展,学术研究与政策决策之间也形成了有效的交流渠道.

文在寅政府时期,美韩同盟在驻韩美军防务费用分摊、战时作战指挥权移交以及驻韩美军基地迁移等问题上进行了新的调整.这些调整是美韩两国战略利益的反映.其中,美国希望实现同盟功能的拓展,以配合其印太战略、遏制中国日益增长的地区影响力;韩国则希望主导对朝政策,推动朝韩关系缓和,为构建朝鲜半岛和平创造条件.美韩两国通过不同层次的利益交换实现了同盟利益的协同.其中,在朝鲜半岛层次上韩国的主导性增强,在地区层次上美国对美韩同盟的控制得以加强.但是,考虑到美韩在对华、对朝认知上的差异,以上调整方案仍然面临不少挑战.

随着中国综合国力的增长以及中美在亚太主导权竞争的加剧,作为地区重要的中等强国,韩国如何在中美之间进行战略选择日益成为学界关注的重要问题.本文以韩国加入亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)、韩国部署萨德反导系统、韩国在南海问题上的行动为例,分析了韩国在中美之间战略选择的特点及决策影响因素.研究发现,第一,“安全上靠美国,经济上靠中国”的战略定义不足以全面说明韩国在中美之间的战略选择特点,韩国的战略选择具有多样性.第二,体系压力、自身的安全认知是影响韩国在中美之间战略选择的重要因素.其中,对于韩国来说,抵御来自朝鲜的安全威胁优先于防范中美博弈给韩国带来的安全风险.具体来说,如果某一议题涉及朝鲜威胁,韩国通常采取跟随美国的战略;如果不涉及朝鲜威胁,韩国则会选择迎合一方但不损害另一方的“对冲”战略.

自2016年以来,朝鲜的导弹试验频繁,进行了数十次导弹试射.同时,不断推出新型导弹也是朝鲜近期发射的一个特点.2017年5月14日发射的"火星-12"新型中远程地对地弹道导弹,发射高度2111.5公里,飞行距离787公里.朝鲜媒体说,该弹道导弹的射程可达8000公里,能打到美国的夏威夷和阿拉斯加.

文章以现实主义制度理论为分析框架,通过考察韩国在亚太、东亚、东北亚等区域及次区域实际合作的情况,分析中等强国韩国地区主义战略的特点.当域内出现大国竞争或对某一大国严重依赖的时候,作为中等强国,韩国积极推动地区主义的制度化进程以平衡大国的影响力,摆脱大国竞争带来的战略选择困境.但是由于其本身受困于重大安全问题,韩国在地区层面提出并主导议题的能力明显不足,在制度框架内解决问题的能力也受到诸多制约,通过平衡手段制衡域内大国的努力也将长期受到同盟关系的束缚,最终只能加深对盟国的依赖.

Analysis of China's response to North Korea's grave provocations confirms that China has been adjusting its policy toward North Korea, considering North Korea's stability and the likelihood of US military intervention while pursuing an engagement with North Korea. China has pursued soft engagement when the likelihood of US military intervention has been low and North Korea has been unstable, semi-hard engagement when the likelihood of US military intervention has been high and North Korea has been stable, and hard engagement when the likelihood of US military intervention has been low and North Korea has been stable. China has increased its pressure on Pyongyang to denuclearize since North Korea's third nuclear test. However, this is merely hard engagement and cannot result in a fundamental change of China's policy toward North Korea. Unless China changes its strategic goal to maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, it will retain its engagement policies toward North Korea.