China initiated a new collective forest tenure reform (CFTR) in 2003, which transferred the use rights of collective forest land and the ownership of collective trees to farmers. To assess the impact of the CFTR on timber production and to understand its underlying mechanisms, this study first conducted a theoretical analysis on how CFTR affects the production of commercial and non-commercial timber, leading to the provided hypotheses. Then, based on a panel dataset for 28 provinces from 1998 to 2018, a Time-varying Difference-in-Differences model was employed for empirical analysis. The results show that the CFTR led to an increase of 24.18% in commercial timber production and 34.37% in non-commercial timber production. The CFTR boosted the production of both types of timber initially, but the incremental effects were weakened over time. The incremental effects of the CFTR on commercial timber production was larger in regions with more collective forests. After the CFTR, the proportion of economic forest land in total forest land increased, contributing to a short-term rise in commercial timber production. In regions with higher timber market prices, reforms have a greater effect on increasing timber production, implying that farmers are more sensitive in their response to market values.

The purpose of this research is to study the changes in the market structure of China’s pulp and paper product imports. In particular, the import trade environment and market layout of Chinese pulp and paper products have changed under the international context of the coronavirus pandemic and the Sino-US trade dispute and the domestic policy context of zero imports of Chinese waste paper. This study attempts to fill the gap regarding the influencing factors of market structure, while contributing new ideas on China’s trade in pulp and paper products. Based on pulp and paper product import and export trade data from 2005 to 2021, a trade gravity model was used to explore the changes in the share of China’s trade partners for pulp and paper product imports and their influencing factors. The results indicated that the outbreak of COVID-19 led to a significant increase in China’s imports of packaging paper products, bringing about an increase in Indonesia’s status as a partner in China’s pulp and paper product trade. The US-China trade dispute had an impact on pulp and paper product trade between the two countries, with China’s tax countermeasures causing the US to lose its status as a trading partner in China for pulp and paper product imports. The center of gravity for paper product imports has moved from the US and Japan to Indonesia and Russia. The restrictions on waste paper imports have shifted the focus of China’s paper raw material imports, with the US no longer being the main importer of China’s paper raw materials. Specifically, the main importers of wood pulp are Brazil and Chile, while the main importers of waste paper pulp are Thailand and Malaysia. In the future, China needs to continuously strengthen dialogue with the United States to resolve trade disputes and create a favorable environment for trade in pulp and paper products. At the same time, China’s paper enterprises should strengthen the expansion of the Southeast Asian market and reduce dependence on the US market, and China should continue to improve the waste paper recycling system and improve the utilization rate of domestic waste paper.

[目的]中国是世界纸和纸板生产和消费第一大国,造纸是国民经济重要支柱产业.作为造纸基本原材料的木浆,自 1995年起就成为中国木质林产品中进口额第一大品类,具有进口量大、增速快、价格高的特点,需关注中国木浆进口风险,以保证造纸工业产业链供应链安全.[方法]规范和确定中国木浆消耗的进口对外依存度、中国木浆进口市场集中度、中国木浆进口国际市场占有率算法并设定其引致中国木浆进口风险的风险分区,构造中国木浆进口风险乘法指数和加法指数,科学设定其风险分区,通过比较确定中国木浆进口风险指数的合理评价方法.[结果]中国木浆消耗的进口对外依存度、中国木浆进口市场集中度、中国木浆进口国际市场占有率是引致中国木浆进口风险的核心因素.2000-2021年中国木浆消耗的进口对外依存度呈现较高水平上的波动减少中缓慢下降的趋势,2021年为62.34%,其所引致的进口风险处于高风险区,接近极高风险区;2000-2021年中国木浆进口市场集中度CR8 呈现高水平上的波动中缓慢下降的趋势,2021年为 89.69%,其所引致的进口风险处于极高风险区;2000-2021年中国木浆进口国际市场占有率呈快速上升态势,2021年为 43.28%,其所引致的进口风险处于高风险区.基于多维度的中国木浆进口风险整体评价方法宜采用因子相乘方式构造,但不管构造的是乘法指数还是加法指数,均显示中国木浆进口风险处于极高风险区.[结论]为减少中国木浆进口风险,应推进工业纸浆林建设,扩大国产木浆供给;从纸和纸板生产、消费、出口3方面,引导国内浆纸需求;以纸代浆,调整浆纸贸易产品结构;加大海外投资,优化木浆进口市场来源结构等.

Socio-economic status, technologies, and policies are key factors affecting forest management planning and forest ecosystem functions. This study applied shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to a forest-management model framework. The potential timber yields and carbon sinks of spatially allocate alternatives were examined by quantifying their consequent changes at the regional tree species level in Chinese commercial forests (CFs) under the harvest and afforestation restrictions. The results indicate that the annual carbon sequestration rate of China’s CFs over the next 50 years is estimated to be 152.0–162.5 Tg/a, which can offset approximately 5% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions identified in 2019. Newly planted and regenerated forests can contribute more than 80% of this offset. The annual timber supply capacity is estimated to be 119.2–142.4 million m3/a with current policy interventions, which is not enough to meet the demand for China’s timber market. Although most existing forests are managed as the primary source for forest goods and carbon service, the total commercial forest area changes are not as large as expected, resulting in only 2.0–10.6% differences. Our results also demonstrate that socioeconomic factors (e.g., social preference, carbon price, and forest logging and silvicultural practices) have a strong impact on carbon sinks but a minor impact on timber yields timber, except for improving harvesting and processing technologies. Establishing local long-term effective forest management systems and making afforestation and regeneration as a priority at the national level are suggested to comprehensively enhance the carbon sequestration and timber-supplying abilities of regional CFs.

Improving ecological well-being performance (EWP) is important for the construction of ecological civilization and sustainable development. The forest ecosystem provides multidimensional ecological well-being for humans, and forest ecological security (FES) has an important impact on the ability of human beings to obtain well-being from the ecosystem, providing multiple guarantees for EWP enhancement. Based on the panel data from 2004 to 2018, we estimate the EWP and FES index of 30 Chinese provinces using stochastic frontier model and TOPSIS, respectively. The spatial econometric model is also used to analyze the impact and spatial spillover effects of FES on EWP. The results show that (1) the level of overall EWP in China from 2004 to 2018 is high, but still not fully effective in converting natural resource inputs into well-being levels, showing a trend of fluctuating decline. Meanwhile, the spatial variation is obvious, where provinces with low EWP are mainly concentrated in the less developed western regions. (2) The FES index overall performance stands at the lower level, but maintaining a stable growth trend. Similarly, there are spatial variations in the distribution of FES, and declined in the order of East, Central, Northeast, and West China, which is basically consistent with the socioeconomic development status. (3) EWP and FES are both significantly correlated in spatial dependence, and the improvement of FES not only promotes EWP in the local, but also positively affects the neighbors through spatial spillover effects, with the indirect effects in the decomposition effects being much larger than the direct effects. In the context of resource scarcity and environmental constraints, the findings of this paper provide empirical evidence for policy formulation to enhance EWP, and the security status of forest ecosystems is a key consideration.

西方经济学是基于资本主义世界发展而总结出的市场与社会运转规律."西方经济学"课程思政教育在客观上面临着一定困难.只有对课程的教学内容和教学方法进行相应变革,以课程思政教育理念为指导,将思想政治教育融入专业课程教学全过程,才能实现全程、全方位育人.融入思想政治教育的"西方经济学"课程,既要传授专业知识技能,更要传输正确的世界观、价值观和人生观."西方经济学"课程教学内容偏重于高度数学化的理论模型推导,缺少人文元素,尤其是缺少对学生价值观引导的内容.为此,设计了"西方经济学"课程思政方案,通过从经济思想史中提炼思政元素、从教学内容发掘思政元素、在教学方法中植入思政元素、在考核方式中体现思政元素4种具体途径,在传道授业解惑的同时培养家国情怀,使学生自觉传承中华优秀传统文化、革命文化、社会主义先进文化,从而实现思政教育与专业知识教育有机结合.实践证明,在"西方经济学"课程教学中融入思政元素,既有利于增强学生的学习探知欲,也有助于提升学生的思想政治素养.

中国是世界木质林产品贸易大国.木质林产品进口大幅波动对国内外林产品市场、国内林产工业发展都会带来不利影响.研究中国木质林产品进口波动特征及影响因素对加强林产品进口管理具有重要意义.基于1992-2020年中国木质林产品进口贸易数据,在对木质林产品进口波动周期识别和特征分析的基础上,构建ARDL模型,从需求和供给的角度分析中国木质林产品进口波动的影响因素,为制定相应政策提供理论依据.结果表明:1992-2020年中国木质林产品进口波动呈现8个波动周期,周期长度约3年;波动的抗衰退能力和稳定性均有所增强;需求侧建筑业产值,供给侧木材产量、汇率和原木进口价格的波动在长短期内对中国木质林产品进口贸易波动均有显著影响.

野生动物冲突补偿是保护野生动物资源、均衡各方利益的有效手段.本文通过2019年陕西省秦岭地区225个农户家庭的半结构化访谈,获得野生动物造成农作物损失的具体情况.运用演化博弈理论阐述野生动物破坏农作物的利益相关者(农户和政府)之间的复制动态方程以及演化稳定策略.研究发现,引入中央政府的激励约束机制才能确定实现最优稳定均衡策略的参数条件;农户只有得到至少720元/公顷的补偿,才愿意采取保护策略;当地政府只有在补偿标准小于2434.6/(1-β)时,才愿意采取补偿策略.因此,应当制定合理的补偿标准以便实现野生动物冲突的利益相关者之间的博弈均衡.

The efficiency and productivity improvement are the core requirements of high-quality development, while improving the efficiency of forest carbon sinks is an important means and fundamental way to achieve their high-quality development. Based on the forests and socioeconomic development data of 31 provinces (cities and districts) in China from 2004 to 2018, the biomass method and DEA-Tobit panel regression model were used to analyze the level of forest carbon stock, carbon sink and carbon sink efficiency, and factors influencing forest carbon sink efficiency in China’s provinces. The results indicated that: ① nationwide forest carbon stocks and carbon sinks increased successively while carbon density decreased. The regions with higher carbon stock, carbon sink, and carbon density were concentrated in the northeast and southwest forest areas with abundant forest resources. ② During the 7th to 9th forest inventory, the efficiency of forest carbon sinks was on a low and decreasing trend. The mean values of comprehensive efficiency in general for the 7th to 9th forest inventory periods were 0.421 and 0.336, respectively. The scale efficiency in the decomposition efficiency was above 0.650 for both inventory periods, and gradually increased, showing that the gap between the actual scale and the optimal production scale of forestry carbon sink was decreasing. The pure technical efficiency level represented the production efficiency of input factors at the optimal scale of forestry carbon sinks. The mean values of the two periods are 0.639 and 0.514, respectively, while the differences within the production frontier surface are 0.361 and 0.486, which indicates that there is input redundancy or output deficiency in the two periods as a whole. ③ The total annual precipitation and the level of socioeconomic development have significant driving effects on the improvement of forest carbon sink efficiency, while the incidence of pests and diseases, abnormal changes in temperature, afforestation area and the development of population urbanization have significant inhibiting effects on the improvement of forest carbon sink efficiency in China.

Nowadays, innovation seems to be the inevitable choice to achieve stable economic growth. However, the negative impact of air pollution on health and economy makes air pollution an important factor in regional innovation, which deserves our discussion. The overall regional innovation level from 2014 to 2019 has an upward trend, while the overall air pollution has a downward trend during the period, which provides foundation for our research. Based on the data of 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2014 to 2019, this paper uses the fixed effect and mediation model to verify the impact and mechanism of air pollution on regional innovation. The results show that the increase in air pollution, measured by the air quality index, significantly inhibits regional innovation. Air pollution has significant funds crowding-out effect and human capital loss effect, thereby decreasing the regional innovation level, which means innovation funds and researchers play a conductive role between air pollution and regional innovation. In heterogeneity analysis, it is found that the detrimental effect of air pollution on regional innovation is significant in eastern and central China, in large- and medium-sized cities, and in cities with poor or general air quality. It indicates that developed and large-scale regions should pay more attention to air pollution control. For polluted regions, more emphasis and endeavors are needed to address air pollution problems. Besides, the inhibitory effect is more severe on incremental innovation rather than on radical innovation, which deserves the attention of enterprises engaged in incremental innovation. Therefore, we propose that targeted environmental policies and effective measures should be developed to improve air quality in the long run. Moreover, policymakers could provide strong support for innovation grants, talent subsidies, and rewards and encourage clean technological innovation through short-term trade-offs between heavily polluting and low polluting enterprises.

The conflict between economic growth and environmental pollution has become a considerable bottleneck to future development throughout the world. The industrial structure may become the possible key factor in resolving the contradiction. Using the daily data of air quality from January to April in 2019 and 2020, we used the DID model to identify the effects of industrial structure on air quality by taking the COVID-19 pandemic as a quasi-experiment. The results show that, first, the impact of profit of the secondary industry on air quality is ten times higher than that of the tertiary industry. Therefore, the secondary industry is the main factor causing air pollution. Second, the effect of the reduction in the secondary industry on the improvement of air quality is better than that of the tertiary industry in Beijing. Therefore, the implementation of Beijing’s non-capital function relief policy is timely and reasonable, and the adjustment of the industrial structure is effective in the improvement of air quality. Third, PM2.5, NO2, and CO are affected by the secondary and tertiary industries, where PM2.5 is affected most seriously by the second industry. Therefore, the transformation from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry can not only solve the problem of unemployment but also relieve the haze. Fourth, the result of O3 is in opposition to other pollutants. The probable reason is that the decrease of PM2.5 would lead to an increase in the O3 concentration. Therefore, it is difficult to reduce O3 concentrationby production limitation and it is urgent to formulate scientific methods to deal with O3 pollution. Fifth, the air quality in the surrounding areas can also influence Beijing. As Hebei is a key area to undertake Beijing’s industry, the deterioration of its air quality would also bring pressure to Beijing’s atmospheric environment. Therefore, in the process of industrial adjustment, the selection of appropriate regions for undertaking industries is very essential, which is worth our further discussion.

Exchange rate is a vital factor influencing trade prices of a country. Logs are important raw materials and imported products in China, and their import prices have a significant influence on the domestic timber market and forest products industry. The research on exchange rate pass-through (henceforth ERPT) into import prices of China’s logs is an important basis for exploring the fluctuation law of domestic timber market prices. Based on the monthly data from January 2004 to June 2019, considering the reforms of exchange rate regimes, this paper uses the ARDL model to calculate the ERPT into import prices of China’s logs in the long and short run. The results show that RMB exchange rate movements cause movements of log’s import prices in the opposite direction; the ERPT is incomplete in the short run and greater than 1 in the long run; two reforms of RMB exchange rate regimes have an effect on the ERPT into import prices of China’s logs, but in a slight manner. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions such as establishing a detection and early warning system for timber prices, strengthening the establishment of domestic timber reserve forests, and increasing the degree of decentralization of the log import market.

基于2008—2017年国家林业局对中国28个省(市、区)国有林场的调研数据,运用等价性检验的方法从地理位置、经济状况、可持续经营和发展能力层面上对国有林场的贫困测度和差异性进行实证分析.研究结果表明:国有贫困林场不一定位于贫困县,并且与国有非贫困林场之间的差异逐渐缩小;国有贫困林场区域异质性强,经济发展水平较低;国有贫困林场在森林资源基础、人力资源基础、基础设施和生产条件等方面的可持续发展能力较差.因此,提出了相关林业部门应该鼓励国有贫困林场发展特色林产品;加大扶贫资金投入;改善职工生计条件;加强资金管理意识等政策建议.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">森林资源核算是森林资源管理的基础,森林资源是数量与质量的统一体,全面的森林资源实物量核算应该综合考虑数量和质量2个方面。文中提出森林资源物量这一概念作为森林资源数量与质量的融合,进一步提出以"标准森林单位"为核算森林资源物量的基本单位,通过将质量参差不齐的各种森林折算为标准森林单位来核算森林资源物量;最后,基于中国第7和第8次全国森林资源连续清查乔木林省域汇总数据进行了试算。结果显示:乔木林资源物量最高的省份为黑龙江、内蒙古、云南等,最低的省份为上海、天津、宁夏等;第7和第8次森林资源清查间隔期间乔木林资源物量增幅最高的省份为江苏、天津、北京等,物量出现下降的为湖南和江西;根据森林资源清查各省份汇总数据计算的乔木林资源物量之和与根据全国汇总数据计算的乔木林资源物量相差不大,表明我们所建立的乔木林资源物量核算体系具有较强的一致性与稳定性。</span>

Discrepancies in trade statistics can be normal or benign and attributed to a wide variety of unintentional factors, or in some instances within the timber products sector, such discrepancies can be associated with “systemic” factors that distort trade statistics, including (i) measurement and shipment issues, (ii) misreporting of product volumes, (iii) misclassification of timber product types, and (iv) government regulations concerned about trade. This study measured trade discrepancies in logs and lumber trade statistics for China and its trading partner countries from 2002 to 2018 using a time-lagged function, based on the customs data available from Global Trade Information Services (GTIS), with the aim of exploring a more nuanced understanding of trade discrepancies and their “systemic” factors. The results showed that the range of overall discrepancies in logs and lumber trade statistics shrunk over time, from [−0.069, 1.207] in 2002–2007 to [−0.120, 0.408] in 2013–2018. The larger trade flows of logs and lumber from Russia, New Zealand, and the U.S. (each above 10% of total China’s import) showed small trade statistics discrepancy ratios, which were less than ± 0.06. However, trade discrepancies still remained large at the disaggregated level, and significant differences of trade discrepancies between tropical and non-tropical countries. The range of trade discrepancies in hardwood logs increased from 2002 to 2018 and appeared to be attributed to misclassification and misreporting in tropical countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Ghana. However, these countries’ trade flows are becoming relatively minor over time. Government policies are suggested to play an important role in influencing both the occurrence and resolution of trade discrepancies.

An important policy cornerstone for China to reduce poverty includes China’s goal of achieving complete poverty alleviation in its state-owned forest farms by 2020. This study describes and documents the poverty reduction effect in impoverished Chinese state-owned forest farms. Based on a sample of 4855 state-owned forest farms in 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017, this paper uses the difference-in-difference method to study the dynamic process of poverty reduction by policies for impoverished state-owned forest farms. The results show that the implementation of the policy significantly promoted the economic development of impoverished state-owned forest farms and caused the treatment group to increase by approximately 10.6% over the control group. Moreover, the establishment of a list of impoverished state-owned forest farms had an indirect impact on the economic performance of forest farms, through channels such as infrastructure poverty alleviation, human capital investment, and per capita income of forest farm employees. Additionally, the effects of the policy on non-impoverished counties were stronger than that on impoverished counties, and impoverished state-owned forest farms may not appear in impoverished counties. The degree of financial dependence of the local government had a significant positive impact on the economic development of impoverished state-owned forest farms. The effects of the policy on different forest farms were heterogeneous. Our study provides recommendations for the future development of impoverished Chinese state-owned forest farms and for the improvement of poverty alleviation efficiency.

2016年北京林业大学经济管理学院将6个专业划分为工商管理类和管理科学与工程类2个大类,实施了大类招生,从而使生源质量得到显著改善.为了完善大类招生专业分流工作方案,做好专业分流后续工作,2016年底进行了工商管理类和管理科学与工程类新生专业意愿问卷调查,2017年底又对这两大类学生进行了专业意愿的跟踪调查.在此背景下,根据专业意愿跟踪调查结果,对“大类招生、分流培养”模式的认可度、报考志愿的满足情况、报考专业大类的选择依据、开设“专业概论”课程的效果、专业的了解程度和满意度以及专业选择的变化情况、大类招生专业分流模式对学习的影响情况、大类招生专业分流意向专业的选择及其相关信息的来源情况、专业分流限定条件和限额方面的意愿、专业分流后续安排方面的意愿等9个方面进行了分析总结.最后,基于问卷调查分析结果对进一步完善大类招生专业分流工作提出以下建议:一是要正确认识大类招生专业分流模式在满足学生专业选择需求和激发学生学习积极性等方面的作用;二是大类招生宜尽量扩展所覆盖的专业范围;三是要优化大类招生专业分流限定条件,适当放开分流专业的配置人数;四是要提供高质量的专业分流相关信息,引导学生合理选择分流专业;五是要妥善处理专业分流后续问题.

本文以福建省98个市(县、区)2000～2016年的森林火灾与森林病虫害损失情况为研究对象,建立风险指标,采用聚类分析法进行灾害风险分区,得到三类风险区,即高、中、低三类风险区.之后根据风险区的划分,对各个风险区的森林火灾与森林病虫害损失率进行拟合,得出其单变量灾害损失分布函数,结果表明,伽马分布函数可以很好地描述福建省各风险区森林火灾的损失情况,而指数分布对福建省各风险区病虫害损失分布拟合较好,森林灾害损失分布的研究可以弥补现有森林保险定价的缺陷,为森林保费的厘定提供理论依据.

“大类招生、分流培养”作为一种全新的人才培养模式正逐渐成为高校教育教学改革的大趋势.大类招生在我国经济管理类院校起步较晚,目前尚处于探索阶段,参与院校的数量较少.北京林业大学经济管理学院从2016年开始按工商管理和管理科学与工程2个大类招生,生源质量得到明显提升,但如何有序、合理地实现专业分流是大类招生面临的一个有待解决的重要问题.为此,对北京林业大学经济管理大类招生新生的专业意愿进行了问卷调查,从学生对大类招生培养模式的认可度、学生专业报考志愿满足情况、学生选择报考专业的主要原因、开设“专业概论”课程的必要性和效果、学生对所在专业大类的满意度及其专业分流意向、学生在专业分流依据和限额方面的意愿、学生在专业分流后续安排方面的意愿等方面进行了统计分析.以此为基础,提出完善经济管理大类招生、专业分流及后续工作的建议措施,具体包括:加强对大类招生培养模式的宣传,注重宣传的前置性、全方位和多角度;规范和丰富“专业概论”课程的内容,开放开课计划,开设相关讲座;引导学生根据自己的兴趣、职业能力和职业发展意向合理选择专业;根据学生意愿,进一步优化和完善大类招生专业分流工作方案;尊重学生意愿,发挥班委核心作用,妥善处理专业分流后续问题;改革和完善全校范围内、大类范围内的转专业制度,提供更多的专业选择机会等.