Based on the Lancang River Basin (LRB) hydro–meteorological data from 1961 to 2015, this study uses the Mann–Kendall trend test and mutation test to analyze the trend of hydro–meteorological variables, as well as which year the runoff series changes, respectively. We applied the Choudhury–Yang equation to calculate the climate and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff. Then we quantified the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The results show that: (1) the mean annual precipitation (P) in LRB showed an insignificant decline, the annual potential evapotranspiration (E0) showed a significant increase, and the runoff depth (R) showed a significant decrease; (2) the abrupt change of the R occurred in 2005. Both the climate and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff increased, which means that the hydrological process of LRB became more sensitive to climate changes and human activities; (3) compared with the base period (1961–2004), the reduction of P was the leading cause of runoff reduction, with a contribution of 45.64%. The contribution of E0 and human activities to runoff changes are 13.91% and 40.45%, respectively.

With the speedy growth of economic development, the imbalance of energy supply and demand pose a critical challenge for the energy security of our country. Meanwhile, the increasing and excessive energy consumption lead to the greenhouse effect and atmospheric pollution, greatly threatening the survival and development of human beings. This study integrated two nighttime light remote sensing datasets, namely Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) data and Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data, to extend the temporal coverage of the study. Then, the distributions of China’s energy consumption from 1995 to 2016 at a 1-km resolution were estimated using different models and the spatiotemporal variations of energy consumption were explored on the basis of the best estimated results. Next, the factors influencing China’s energy intensity on the provincial level were investigated based on the spatial econometric model. The results show that: (1) The integrated nighttime light datasets can be successfully applied to estimate the dynamic changes of energy consumption. Moreover, the panel data model established in our research performed better than the quadratic polynomial model. (2) During the observation period, the energy consumption in China significantly increased, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, eastern coastal cities, and provincial capitals. (3) Different from the random spatial distribution pattern of energy consumption on the provincial level, the spatial distribution of energy consumption on the prefectural level has significant clusters, and its spatial agglomeration was strengthened year by year during the research period. (4) The spatial Durbin model (SDM) with a spatial fixed effect has been proved to be more suitable to explore the impact mechanism of China’s energy consumption. Among the four socio-economic factors, industrial structure has the greatest impact on the provincial energy intensity in China. Moreover, the changes in industrial structure and foreign direct investment (FDI) can not only influence the local energy intensity but also affect the energy intensity of the neighboring provinces.

The IAM model EMRICES was adopted to analyze the energy and industrial structure trends of the major countries in the world. In the aspect of energy consumption, the energy varieties are subdivided and a random shock model is introduced to depict the declining trend of energy intensity in different sectors. In the aspect of industrial structure, CGE model is used to describe the trend of economic growth. The NDC constraints would affect the total economic output and energy consumption of various industries according to the emission reduction cost function in EMRICES. The results show that the global temperature would be 2.61 ∘ C by 2100 under NDC constraints, and it is still unable to achieve the target of 2 ∘ C warming. The global carbon emission mitigation should be paid to more attention. In terms of energy consumption, the proportion of nonfossil energy and natural gas consumption will be greatly increased. The change of industrial competitive advantage represented by location quotient shows that China’s manufacturing competitiveness will decline, but its relative concentration and specialization level are still higher than the global average level. India’s manufacturing development will improve. In the financial sector, the United States would still be the leader.

合理规划中小学布局是优化教育资源配置、提高办学效益以及实现教育均衡发展的重要途径.本研究针对中国乡村建设的需要和中国多山的地理环境,考虑山地环境对乡村中小学选址的影响,构建多山环境下乡村中小学的区位模型,运用地理信息科学方法,以Visual Studio.Net 2010为开发平台,使用C#语言和ArcGIS Engine 10.0组件库,同时结合MATLAB编程,开发出基于交通网络的乡村中小学区位优化系统.最后将系统应用于贵州省某镇的小学布局优化中,分别在只考虑已有道路、假设道路可升级、假设道路可新建或升级3种情景下,通过改进的模拟退火算法,确定新建学校的最佳位置,以及新道路的修建和原有道路的升级情况,从而得到不同情景下各居民点学生的上学耗时.结果 表明,交通网络对乡村中小学布局优化具有重要影响,改善交通网络条件能够有效提高学生的就学效率上学速度.

Accurate estimation of CO 2 emissions is a prerequisite for scientific low-carbon emission policymaking. Based on 20 types of energy consumption data at the prefecture level in China, this paper re-estimates the CO 2 emissions of 198 prefecture-level cities in 2016 by using the method of carbon emission coefficient. The spatial pattern and scale characteristics are analyzed, and the conclusions are as follows: (1) Overall, China’s urban CO 2 emissions show a certain degree of spatial separation in terms of the total amount, per capita emissions, and emission intensity. Cities with the highest CO 2 emissions in China are mainly concentrated in North China, East China and Chongqing, while cities with the highest per capita CO 2 emissions and emission intensity are mainly concentrated in Northwest and North China. (2) Different types of cities have different CO 2 emission characteristics. Resource-based cities have a higher total amount and emission intensity; tourism and underdeveloped cities both have lower values; while super-large-sized cities and many very-large-sized cities have higher CO 2 emissions, but their emission intensities are usually lower; and no obvious rules are found in other cities. (3) Spatial analysis shows that cities with higher CO 2 emissions are clustered. The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta region, Shandong Province, and Shanxi–Henan–Anhui resource-producing areas are the agglomeration areas of high-emission cities. (4) Scale analysis shows that the characteristics of CO 2 emissions at different scales are different. Provincial-level research can help to identify the environmental impact and total effect of carbon emissions, while urban-scale research is helpful to explore the diversity and phases of cities. Finally, based on the main conclusions of this study, the corresponding urban low-carbon policy implications are drawn.

Organo-catalyzed tandem reaction between β,γ-unsaturated α-ketoesters and α-arylidene pyrazolinones was developed, and it provided chiral bi-spirocyclic pyrazolone and oxindole derivatives in high yields with good to excellent stereoselectivity.

国家减排目标和政策的落实需要城市的深度参与和有力执行.但是,城市的CO2排放存在空间分异性,且驱动因素及其贡献度各有不同.文章综合运用排放系数法、变异系数法、K-means聚类和地理探测器等方法,对城市尺度的中国CO2排放空间分异与驱动因子进行探究,结论如下:①中国城市层面的CO2排放存在明显的空间分异,排放强度的空间分异性较为显著,而排放量的空间分异性相对较小,且以非资源型城市CO2排放强度的城市间差异最大.②能源强度是资源型和北方城市CO2排放空间分异的主导驱动因子,城市经济规模是非资源型和南方城市CO2排放空间分异的主导驱动因子,其他驱动因子的决定力排序和决定力大小则各有不同.③产业结构及其高级化水平对各类城市CO2排放空间分异的决定力均较小,城市经济密度对资源型和北方城市的CO2排放空间分异的决定力较小.④影响资源型和北方城市CO2排放空间分异的关键交互因子均包含能源强度,而影响非资源型和南方城市CO2排放空间分异的关键交互因子比较复杂,不存在对城市CO2空间分异格局起关键性决定作用的交互因子.⑤一些决定力微弱的因子在与其他因子叠加后,会产生非线性增强,会显著提高其对城市CO2排放空间分异的决定力水平.

针对重大突发事件的应急物资救援,研究了应急物流中心的选址及应急物资的调运问题.利用离散的情景集合描述受灾点应急物资需求的不确定性以及应急物资运输成本和运输时间的不确定性,同时考虑应急救援成本和应急救援时间两个目标,建立了多目标应急物流中心选址的确定型模型和鲁棒优化模型.为将多目标问题转化为单目标问题,利用成本单目标和时间单目标的最优结果将多目标转化为相对值再加权处理,该方法既可消除多个目标之间的单位及数量级差异,还可以根据问题的数据变化进行动态调整.以提供应急物资救援服务的设施作为编码,设计了一种通用的混合蛙跳算法.为检验模型和算法的有效性,设计了一个多情景的算例,结果表明两个模型和算法具备良好的可行性和有效性,且鲁棒优化模型能较好地保持对各种不确定性的抗干扰能力;最后,讨论分析了成本偏好权重和鲁棒约束系数的影响,结果表明可根据成本偏好权重的取值范围来区分各种应急救援阶段,体现不同救援阶段的救援要求及特征,并给出了成本偏好权重和鲁棒约束系数的取值建议.

The development of China’s population distribution boundary (Hu Line) in the future will have mixed driving characteristics: (1) driven by potential agricultural production in the long term; (2) driven by the wage gap between the eastern and the western provinces in the short term. At the same time, China’s unique pattern of migrant workers has increased the complexity of the issue of population migration between the Hu Line. This paper establishes a population support model based on the Potential Agricultural Production and a multi-regional Computable general equilibrium model considering a transfer mechanism of remittance. Results show that the population proportion caused by climate change in the provinces west of the Hu Line will increase in the long term, but the stability of the Hu Line has not been broken down. In the short term, as the wage-driven migration of western labor force expands, the country’s total economy shows a growing trend, and the wage gap between regions gradually narrows with the expansion of the migration scale. When the migration rate of the western labor force is 30%, the per capita GDP gap between the eastern and western regions of the Hu Line is the minimum, and when the rate is 10%, the per capita income gap between the eastern and western regions is the smallest. Though the rural migrant workers from the western province can improve the living standards of families in the western regions, it has little impact on the national and regional economy overall.

This research aims to lay out a framework to quantify the impacts of mining booms on the macro-economy in Mongolia, a country that is increasingly dependent upon its mining sector. The study uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the long-term effects on the economy with three sets of scenarios: (1) a moderate boom in the productivity of agriculture, manufacturing, coal mining and coal service sectors; (2) a drop in the world price of coal and metal ores; and (3) the combination of these two scenarios. We assume that these shocks are seismic, and the findings are important for policymakers to implement policy to deal with the negative impact of mining booms. Our study result shows that reinvestment in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors could help to mitigate the resource curse, and suggests that suitable macroeconomic management and prudent administration of the mining sector’s windfall income are important.

基于大数据分析思路和数据挖掘工具,在县级尺度上,利用2010年第六次人口普查数据,计算各县的平均人口密度,以及合成海拔（地带性因素）、环境脆弱性、人生气候指数、农业生产潜力、适宜水资源偏离度、交通便捷性、区位指数等,克鲁格曼Krugman所谓的区域地理本性特征,对胡焕庸线的存在的地理基础和生态学基础进行了分析。研究结果表明:（1）中国人口密度与合成海拔、环境脆弱性、人生气候指数、适宜水资源偏离度、农业生产潜力等生态学因素密切相关,与交通便捷性、GDP和区位指数等显著相关。（2）对大多数省的人口密度的影响的贡献率排在强烈的是合成海拔、农业生产潜力和和水资源适应度,其次是交通便捷性和区位指数;它们是克鲁格曼Krugman新经济地理学认识的第一次区域本性和第二次地理本性因素。（3）新疆、山东、宁夏、内蒙古、黑龙江、江苏、北京和天津的人口分布比较独特,还需引入新的因子来解释其人口分布的影响因素;（4）胡焕庸线沿线是一个生态脆弱地带。研究基本展现了中国人口的空间分布的胡焕庸线的地理学与生态基础。

文章讨论了区域管理与区域治理的意义,研究认为,区域管理的方法原理适合了区域治理,所不同的是,区域治理比区域管理包含了区域发展的进化意义.区域的管理,任务的重点在于管理或者调控区域的资源环境结构;区域治理,核心是对于区域人口及其聚集而形成的城市有进化目的的组织.

The emission reduction targets articulated in the nationally determined contribution (NDC) reports of the "Belt and Road" countries, which have joined China in an international alliance to promote green development, are studied in this paper. Our findings indicate that the most commonly adopted emission reduction targets are relative to emissions in the base year and to baseline scenarios. Approximately half of these countries request technological and financial support from the international community in their NDC reports. Greenhouse gas inventory accounting, and data management, modeling, and tools are the most commonly identified technological needs. Moreover, the NDC reports indicate that $2.88 trillion of financial support is explicitly required, while a reliable international financial assistance and technology transfer would enable considerably higher emission reduction targets to be reached in Belt and Road countries. Our analysis of the top four emitters among these countries reveal a future decreasing trend for China and Russia and an increasing trend for India and Indonesia. China can effectively promote its Belt and Road green development initiative through measures such as capacity building in the areas of emission inventory accounting, constructing an "Internet Plus" platform for the use and management of low-carbon data, and technology exchanges aimed at strengthening low-carbon development.

在绿色经济发展趋势下,中国政府积极倡议建立“一带一路”绿色发展国际联盟,这离不开对“一带一路”沿线国家温室气体排放特征与减排立场的掌握.构建“一带一路”沿线国家CH4减排潜力指数,梳理1990-2014年“一带一路”沿线国家温室气体排放现状、排放来源,以期为“一带一路”绿色发展联盟相关政策的制定提供参考.结果 显示:“一带一路”沿线国家高排放总量与高人均排放量空间分离,形成了“高总量-低人均”和“高人均-低总量”的两类排放特征;除CO2外,“一带一路”沿线国家CH4排放超世界平均水平,CH4减排不容忽视;“一带一路”温室气体排放源存在国家间差异,大多数国家以能源产业部门为主要排放源,但农业部门排放、土地利用变化和森林植被变化也构成了阿富汗、孟加拉国等国家的主要排放源.

农业生态系统具有碳源和碳汇的双重特征,其在减缓气候变化中的重要性已得到国际社会的广泛认可.相较于技术手段的创新,碳税、补贴等经济手段被认为是较为简单、可行、易出台的碳排放减缓政策.采用气候变化综合评估模型-GOPer-GC模型,构建国际碳税情景,模拟分析了2008年至2050年碳税政策的实施对全球各区域农业土地覆被及土地利用变化碳排放的影响.模拟结果表明,情景2和情景3中全球农业土地利用变化累计碳排放分别达到49.6 GtC和23.1 GtC,明显低于基准情景的累计排放量51.9 GtC.这说明,实施碳税政策后,相较于将碳税收入用作一般性财政收入,将碳税收入补贴至农业部门在一定程度上减缓农业碳排放.此外,林业部门获取更多的碳税补贴时,多数区域农业土地利用变化碳排放规模大幅减少,主因是耕地变为林地、草地变为林地面积的增加.情景3中,中国的碳汇量较其他情景显著增加,主要来自耕地变为林地、草地变为林地,累计碳汇量分别达到1.7和3.7 GtC.因此,对于中国、美国、印度等大部分区域来说,碳税收入更多地补贴至林业部门有利于在整体上减缓农业碳排放,而欧盟、日本、东亚、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯、东欧地区,碳税收入平均补贴至种植业、畜牧业和林业反而具有相对更好的减排效果.

借助连锁网络模型和复杂网络理论,基于2014年中国装备制造业企业的地理分布情况,分析城市空间组织关系.研究发现,全国各地城市呈现一种枢纽—网络结构.全国范围来看,北京为全国性枢纽城市,上海、深圳、重庆等城市为地区性枢纽城市,且枢纽城市之间以北京与深圳的城际连接最为密切,西北地区和西南地区的大部分城市在网络中连接程度相对较低.基于行业的子网络进行比较发现,不同行业在网络规模、枢纽城市和网络密度等方面都存在显著的差异,证实了城市空间组织的枢纽—网络结构具有多中心性和多样性的特点.运用复杂网络理论进行蓄意攻击实验发现,删除枢纽城市的腹地城市后其网络连通度基本不受影响,但删除其非腹地城市后网络联通度下降非常明显,说明空间距离对枢纽与节点连通的限制越来越弱,这与中心—腹地结构中的情形有着明显的区别.

文章基于生产函数引入气候因子构建面板数据分析模型,从较细的时间尺度,研究了影响作物产量的关键生育期气候变量,并据此估算了气候变化对作物产量影响的长期趋势.研究识别出影响春玉米、夏玉米、冬小麦和春小麦单产的关键生育期气候变量及其影响方向和程度;同时计算发现气候变化对春玉米、夏玉米和春小麦单产的长期影响趋势显著,1985-2015年间降幅约为10％.

推进京津冀区域产业协同发展是贯彻京津冀协同发展战略的重要任务.基于共生思想、协同学、区位理论和产业规划等视角,本研究识别产业结构与产业组织在产业链共生系统中相互协同形成京津冀产业分工与协作机制,提出京津冀一体化共同体建立"产业=区位+布局+结构+集群"的产业协同规划视角,分析京津冀地区产业转移再区位的惯性特征以及惯性锁定与解锁过程,探讨"一区多园"空间布局的"飞点→辐射→横截→填充"组织模式对京津冀产业集群发展的实现路径.本研究发现京津冀产业协同发展基本规律与关键影响因素,为进一步加快京津冀产业对接协作提出政策建议.

OBJECTIVE To identify potential mutations in two Chinese families affected with primary localized cutaneous amyloidosis. METHODS Peripheral blood samples of the family were collected with informed consent. Genomic DNA was extracted with a phenol chloroform method. All of the 17 exons and their flanking splicing sites of the OSMR gene were amplified with PCR and subjected to Sanger sequencing. Suspected mutations were verified with PCR - restriction fragment length polymorphism and high-resolution melting assays. RESULTS A missense mutation (c.1538G>A) was found in exon 10 of the OSMR gene in all of the six patients from family 1. A missense mutation (c.2081C>T) was found in exon 14 of the OSMR gene in all of the four patients from family 2. The same mutations were not found among the healthy controls. CONCLUSION Two missense mutations (c.1538G>A and c.2081C>T) were detected in the OSMR gene in two Chinese families affected with primary localized cutaneous amyloidosis. Our findings have further confirmed the pathogenicity of such mutations.

气候变化及其应对在短短20年期间逐渐成为全球重要议题,以何种共赢、共识的方式行动起来,这不仅仅是技术进步问题,更是对人类集体认知的挑战.因此,需要从伦理学的角度尤其是基于气候变化的长期性和不确定性认识考虑全球气候治理问题.首先经济手段是全球行动和气候决策的最有效方法,但是它仍然存在各种争议,经济目标并非进行决策的唯一选项,除了经济上的效率原则,人类生活中还需要其他原则.其次,在应对决策上,不论是减缓还是适应,不论是征税还是补贴或是不同的贴现率决策,都需要更公平公正的路径来实现共赢,而这又必然涉及代际公平的讨论,进而又必然导致伦理准则的讨论.再次在气候变化决策模拟过程中,任何一个参数的设置和选择都涉及到价值判断,从而又让争论回到伦理原则.另外,不同国家和政府基于不同的国情和目的采取各种各样的碳税政策,要统一或协调可以用于全球所有国家和地区的标准就不仅仅是经济学问题,而是公平问题.因此基于全球气候治理的复杂性,文章提出基于更全面科学认知基础上的政策模拟才是人类进行气候治理的最佳方法.