The warming at high latitudes that remains in recent years has a direct impact on Arctic and Subarctic landscapes. Possible changes in these landscapes with climate warming are closely related with regulatory mechanisms for the underlying surface temperature. The features of the formation of radiation and evapotranspirational mechanisms of surface temperature regulation in the tundra (from Arctic to southern) and the forest-tundra landscapes of Novaya Zemlya and Western Siberia are studied in this paper. The MODIS data of surface spectral characteristics are used: albedo (Al) and surface temperature (Ts) for July 2000–2019. The radiation mechanism of surface temperature regulation is shown to dominate in glacial and polar desert landscapes of the Arctic and Subarctic with the prevalence of stony and rubble types of surfaces with lichens. At the same time, in the mountainous and Arctic tundra of Novaya Zemlya, the radiative mechanism of surface temperature regulation is practically independent of weather anomalies and currently weakly depends on the surface air temperature trend. In the continental tundra and forest tundra, the evapotranspirational type of surface temperature regulation begins to predominate. This is facilitated by an increase in average monthly air temperatures up to 15–16°C, which favorably affects the diversity of vegetation. In the subzone of the southern tundra and forest tundra, the relation between albedo and surface temperature depends on the height of the terrain, the exposure of slopes, and (especially) on extreme temperature anomalies. In lowlands (hydromorphic complexes), in cold years, against the background of waterlogging, the radiative type of surface temperature regulation prevails, while in warm years, a decrease in humidity leads to the maximal development of vegetation, and the communication mechanism can turn into an evapotranspirational one. At higher elevations, the reverse process, which is also associated with changes in moisture conditions, is observed. In the forest tundra, upon an increase in air temperature and an increase in the height of the vegetation cover, the evapotranspiration mechanism of the relation between the Al–Ts spectral parameters weakens. Thus, in the southern tundra and forest tundra, the existence of two stable positions of equilibrium between the spectral properties of the surface depending on the illumination and temperature anomalies is possible.
The article summarizes the results of the first stage of research into adaptation measures taken by the rural population of mountain areas and the administration of Dagestan in response to climate change. An assessment of climate change over the past 20 years in the Eastern Caucasus, with special attention to the mountain areas of Dagestan, was carried out based on reanalysis data. It has been revealed that in the last decade in the midlands and highlands, annual and seasonal temperatures have increased significantly, and the amount of annual and summer precipitation has begun to decrease; in general, the mountains of the Eastern Caucasus and Dagestan, in particular, are becoming warmer and drier. Actions of mountain residents in the crop production in response to warming and increasing moisture deficit are mainly aimed, as in many other mountain rural regions of the world, at changing varieties and crops, growing intensive orchards that are more tolerant to climate change, and expanding the range of terraced fruit crops. The unpredictability of weather events has spurred the active growth of the greenhouse industry. New processes have intensified related industries and breeding science in Dagestan. The population’s initiatives are supported by the Program for the Socioeconomic Development of Mountain Areas of the Republic of Dagestan for 2020–2025, which provides subsidies and grants, primarily for small farms and personal subsidiary plots. The aim of the Program is not adaptation to climate change, but these measures are objectively manifested as support for the adaptation measures of the population. The mountain agricultural terraces of Dagestan are considered a potential resource for development of agriculture in the face of climate change, as well as possible tourism sites, representing elements of historical and cultural heritage and identity of local landscapes.
Received December 14, 2023; revised April 21, 2023; accepted June 27, 2023The development of winter ski tourism and characteristics of ski resorts in various regions of Russia are closely related to climatic conditions, the most important of which are the presence and duration of snow cover. For the period 2000–2021, a study of snow cover, availability of “optimal ski days” and climatic indicators necessary for artificial snowmaking at ski resorts located in different regions of Russia was performed, using data of the reanalysis ERA5-Land. The characteristics of snow cover and temperature from the reanalysis data were compared with data of the meteorological network. The ERA5-Land data for temperature, precipitation, and snow cover thickness are well synchronized with the observational data, and estimates of the error of trends in air temperature and snow cover depth according to the reanalysis data relative to the station data give satisfactory results. In the conditions of the current climate, the average and maximum thickness of snow cover in all resorts is sufficient for their functioning, but in 2000–2021, a decrease in both the maximum and average values of snow cover is noted in most resorts. The study shows that in terms of snow and weather conditions, the highest mountain resorts of the North Caucasus and Kirovsk (Murmansk region) are the most prosperous, where thickness of the snow cover and duration of its occurrence as well as a significant number of “optimal ski days” sustains stability of the resorts and creates favorable conditions for their further development.
Studies have shown the importance of supplementing the system of indicators of natural and climatic factors used to regionalize the territory according to the conditions of human activity with indicators that take into account the impact of extreme climatic events. This will allow to consider adverse factors of climate extremes unfavorable for the life of the population and to develop adaptation and mitigation measures. The methodology and map “Zoning of the territory of the Russian Federation according to the natural conditions of life of the population” for the current climate (2001-2010) were refined. We used reanalysis data from the WATCH project with a spatial resolution of 0.5° x 0.5°. The addition of the methodology with the indicators of growing climate extremeness indicators made it possible to take more fully into account the regional peculiarities of natural discomfort, especially for mountainous regions, marshy territories of Western Siberia, and southern Russian regions experiencing desertification. The result of considering extreme events was the complication of the configuration of the discomfort zones boundaries. The resulting map better reflects the landscape features of the territories, including for places with special climatic conditions (mountains, marshes, arid regions) and can be used to assess the living conditions of the population at the level of regions and municipalities.
The impact of climatic conditions on human beings can be assessed using bioclimatic indices. In this study, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was applied to assess the bioclimate in Russia. Seasonal features, region-specific features, and extreme values of the UTCI were considered in the climatic conditions of 2001–2015. The UTCI values for the datasets were obtained in the daytime (at 15:00) and at night (at 03:00) in the territory of Russia using the software package BioKlima 2.6. Daily current meteorological data were used as input for the calculations, including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and total cloud cover. It was established that all categories of cold stress and almost all categories of heat stress are observed in Russia, but the cold stress conditions prevail. In winter, cold stress of various categories predominated over almost the entire territory in both the daytime and at night. In summer, conditions of no heat stress and comfort were observed in the largest part of Russia, while conditions of moderate heat stress were noted in the south of the European part during daytime hours. Extreme cold stress occurred over almost the entire territory of Russia with the exception of the west border, the foothills of the Caucasus and the coasts of the Black and Caspian Seas. In the largest part of the country, the maximum UTCI values for the study period corresponded to slight and strong heat stress.
Проведено комплексное исследование спектральных характеристик основных типов равнинных ландшафтов России.По данным спектрорадиометра MODIS показан характер изменений спектральных характеристик в зависимости от широты.Даны количественные характеристики альбедо, температуры поверхности Ts и индекса NDVI на равнинах Европейской части России и Западной Сибири.Изучены связи спектральных характеристик поверхности с типами зональных равнинных ландшафтов.Существует определённый диапазон спектральных характеристик, соответствующих каждой зоне.Корреляция альбедо и температуры поверхности может быть как положительной, так и отрицательной.Температура поверхности положительно коррелирует с альбедо в материковой тундре на профилях 45 и 55° в. д. и отрицательно в тундре арх.Новая Земля, о.Вайгач и материковой тундре на профиле 70° в. д.Значимая положительная корреляция альбедо с температурой поверхности прослеживается в лесотундре, тайге (за исключением части северотаёжной зоны), степи и полупустыне.По отдельным спектральным параметрам соседние зоны могут быть близки, но по совокупности спектральных свойств каждая ландшафтная зона индивидуальна.Показаны межзональные различия спектральных свойств и оценена теснота связей спектральных компонентов в каждой зоне.В большинстве случаев, за исключением севера, связь температуры поверхности с NDVI отрицательна и усиливается при продвижении с севера на юг.Формирование положительной свя
For the independent delineation of the climatic transition zone and its monitoring in steppe zone of the European part of Russia different indicators, such as climatic (observation data, reanalysis), spectral (NDVI) and model (evapotranspiration), are used. The complex characteristics of the climatic transition zone in the Orenburg oblast for dry and wet years are defined. A heat load on man and bioclimatic conditions changes in terms of human thermal comfort are explored according to the position of the climatic transition zone. It has been established that a climatic transition zone, resulted from sharp climatic differences, is a natural transitional strip with qualitative transformation of a dry steppe landscape on comparatively short distances. Climatic gradients of the annual and July precipitation are recommended for the identification of the climatic transition zone. The gradients of mean annual and July temperature identify climatic transition zone in particular areas bordering with dry steppe zones. Spectral and model indicators of the climatic transition zone (NDVI gradients and evapotranspiration) are qualitatively connected with July precipitation gradients. The vegetation index NDVI is beneficial to the evaluation of climatic transition zone sensitivity to climate aridization and anthropogenic contribution to desertification dry steppe landscapes. In terms of human thermal comfort, the climatic transition zone should be considered in area zoning under natural and climatic conditions of population activity.
Оценка изменения частоты, интенсивности и продолжительности волн тепла в летний период (июнь-август) на территории России для "исторического периода" (1980-1999 гг.) и прогноза на середину ХХI в. (2046-2055 гг.) проводилась по данным, полученным на глобальной климатической модели (INMCM4) Института вычислительной математики РАН.Определение критериев экстремальных явлений зависит от выбора пороговых значений.В настоящей работе рассматриваются пороговые значения для определения волн тепла как значения 95-й процентили распределения максимальной суточной температуры.Анализ полученных результатов показывает, что при "мягком" сценарии RCP4.5 в середине ХХI в. ожидается увеличение числа дней с максимальными температурами, превышающими пороговые значения на юге Европейской территории России и Западной Сибири, в Якутии, на севере Чукотки и в Приморском крае.Максимальные изменения ожидаются на Таймыре и Ямале.На остальной территории число таких дней может сократиться.Для "жесткого" сценария RCP8.5 ожидаются более контрастные изменения при сохранении основных особенностей их локализации.При этом сценарии в середине ХХI в. на юге страны средняя максимальная температура в волне тепла может превысить 40 °С.
The paper uses the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) to estimate the bioclimate in Russia, initiated by the Commission of the International society of Biometeorology. The UTCI index can be described as equivalent environment temperature (°C), which provides the same physiological impact on humans as the actual environment. Assessment of bioclimatic conditions is shown for the territory of Russia in the period of modern climate change (2001–2015). Cold stress conditions (from low to extreme) were observed in the almost all territory of Russia for about 8–11 months a year. During the rest of the year, the conditions are neutral or comfortable. The period of extreme and very high cold stress is reduced during the modern climate warming (compared to the period 1961–1990), especially in the Arctic, in the European part of Russia, in Western and Eastern Siberia. At the same time, the period with neutral and comfortable thermal conditions increases.
Рассмотрены тренды климатических характеристик в переходных ландшафтных зонах северных регионов России и дана оценка предпосылок возможных изменений ландшафтов.Для анализа спектральных характеристик поверхности использовались данные MODIS.Климатические условия в переходных ландшафтных зонах оценивались с помощью станционных данных.Определён отклик спектральных характеристик ландшафтов в крупных географических регионах севера России на современные климатические изменения.Согласно спутниковой информации выделены районы максимальных изменений зелёной фитомассы, где наблюдается положительный тренд суммы активных температур и отрицательный тренд осадков.На некоторых участках тундры, лесотундры и северной тайги климатические условия уже соответствуют более южным ландшафтным зонам.Это может привести к смещению границ переходных ландшафтных зон в более высокие широты.Климатические изменения подтверждаются положительными трендами вегетационного индекса за период 2000-2018 гг.в тундровой и лесотундровой зонах на Европейской части России.В Сибири положительные тренды NDVI характерны для
The National Park “Valdayskiy” (the Park) was established to preserve the unique lake-forest complex of the Valday upland and to create conditions for the development of organized recreation on this territory. Incomparable beautiful views of different landscapes attracthere thousands of tourists from various Russian regions.The greater number of them prefers lakeshores for camping,so special attention in the research was paid tothe studyofriparian and shallow water vegetation of lakesin zones with different recreation pressureto establish the patterns of vegetation digression.The materials of our observations are supplemented with data on the attendance of tourist sites collected by the Park staff.The region recreation capacities were studied on the base of bioclimatic indices (Bodman’s indices and subjective temperature).It was revealed that only for the period of 1 month (mid-July to mid-August), there is a massive influx of tourists and intensive use of recreation sites on the lakeshores.This leads to degradation of riparian forest and meadow vegetation; destruction of the protective (buffer) zone of aquatic vegetation, erosion of the banks near camps, pollution of shallow water by sewage and garbage. Thus, irregular recreation pressure on water bodies leads to local degradation of natural complexes and eventually to lowering the aesthetic value of riparian landscapes. But such factors as humid (moderate) continental climate with a prolonged cold winter and high relative air humidity throughout the year reduce the period of a strong recreation pressure, and the complicated accessibility of many lakeshores reduce the negative impact of recreation and delay the destruction of natural vegetation. Evaluation of the bioclimatic indices allows Valday to be attributed to regions with a lack of thermal resources, it is preferable to develop here dynamic types of recreation activities practically all over the year. For soft recreation activity the Valday upland are available with limitation from 7 to 8 months in a year and without limitation nearly 1 month in a year. For nature conservation in the Park it is necessary to organize monitoring of lakeshore’s complexes, control of recreation use, determine pressure of tourist traffic, normalizing and differentiating this pressure by the types of possible use and conservation regime.
Ongoing global warming and growth in climate extremeness affect all areas with particular climate conditions. Therefore, Russian territorial zoning in terms of natural conditions of vital activity of the population is becoming increasingly relevant for evaluating contemporary climate conditions and predicting vital conditions of the population in the future, especially for areas with particular climatic conditions. The zoning is based on the level of impact of the main natural factors on vital activity of the population: cold, heat, moisture, height above sea level, and natural disasters. The study uses maps of “Russian Federation Territory Zoning in Terms of Natural Conditions of Lives of the Population” prepared at the Laboratory of Climatology, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, for the climatic conditions of the second half of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, as well as the assessment of changes in these conditions in the mid-21st century according to the results of numerical experiments on a global climatic model developed by the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences. It has been established that warming from 1991 to 2010 has led to a significant reduction in area with absolutely unfavorable and very unfavorable conditions. The scale of reduction is comparable with changes in discomfort in the “hard” anthropogenic scenario for the period from 2046 to 2055.
The present-day global warming and the rise of climate extremes are the most pronounced in the Arctic zone of theRussian Federation, and this circumstance is very important for the population of these regions. According to the zoning of theterritoryofRussiapresenting the natural conditions of the human’s life, the greater part of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federationis characterized by absolutely unfavorable and very unfavorable conditions. In this connection, estimation of the present-day climate conditions and prediction of future situation is very important for the population in many regions ofRussia, and particularly in the Arctic zone. The Nature conditions of human life in the second half of the 20th century and changes of them in the 21st one were analyzed in this work. This made possible to correct the map “Zoning of the territory of theRussian Federationon natural conditions of the human’s life" and to estimate possible changes of climate conditions by the middle of the 21st century. The results of numerical experiments performed with three models presented at the fifth phase of the coupled models comparison Project (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, SMIR5) were used in the work. The models are as follows: one of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS (INMCM4); the second Meteorological Office of theHadleyCenter(HadGEM2-ES), and the third – Max-Plank Meteorological Institute (MPI-ESM-LR). The most changeable climatic factors (heat, cold, and wind) were investigated. The regions of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federation, where warming is the most evident, have been established, and changes of areas with different levels of climatic discomfort during periods of current and expected climate warming have been estimated. The warming of 1991–2010 in the Western and Eastern parts of the Arctic zone of theRussian Federationresulted in that area with absolutely unfavorable conditions significantly decreased. The scale of the area reduction was found to be comparable to the change of discomfort under the «soft» anthropogenic scenario for the period 2046–2055.
The study substantiates the approach to the assessment of impact of climate change on vital activities of population in Russia in the face of increasing climate extremes. The obtained results reveal the occurrence of the essential climate extreme events over the period 1991-2013 in Russia that are vital for population activities. Annual amounts of interdiurnal temperature differences and pressure were calculated. Propagation of heat and cold waves, trends and frequencies of daily precipitation extremes were evaluated. The map "Zoning the territory of the Russian Federation by natural living conditions of the population" adapted for modern climate (2001-2010), illustrates the climate changes in the early 21st century. The modern warming of climate has led to a significant easing of discomfort in the territory of Russia. The steady decline of the absolutely unfavorable zone resulted from the expansion of less unfavorable areas is observed, especially in the Northern and Arctic regions. In the south the boundary of unfavorable territories shifts toward the north. It results in the expansion of the conditionally unfavorable area in West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. In European Russia the favorable area expands and shifts far to the northern regions.
Короткопериодичные колебания сроков залегания снежного покрова на севере Евразии в начале XXI века оценены по спутниковым данным в связи с изменчивостью приземной температуры воздуха и осадков.На Восточно-Европейской равнине, в Западной Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке устойчивый снежный покров образуется раньше установления отрицательных приземных температур воздуха из-за достаточного здесь для образования снежного покрова количества осадков.В холодный период при меньшем количестве осадков в Центральной Сибири устойчивый снежный покров образуется позже установления отрицательных температур воздуха.Разрушение устойчивого снежного покрова весной повсеместно происходит позже
Time of the snow cover appearance, existence and disappearance on the Russia’s territory in the early 21st century (2000–2015) was corrected using the MODIS/Terra satellite data (the 8-day discreteness, and the 0.5×0.5° resolution). The satellite data errors were estimated from data of the ground stations observations. The errors were found to be maximal in autumn and minimal in spring. The relationship between the snow cover characteristics and the climate ones was investigated using data obtained at the ground-based stations together with correlation between dates of snow appearance and loss and the climate parameters. The dependences obtained were tested by means of correlation and regression analysis over the longitudinal sectors. Significant coefficients of correlation (the Student criterion of probability was equal to 0.95) were found between time of the snow cover presence and dates of the temperature drop below 0 °С and the amount of days with negative temperatures. Changes in the climate characteristics result in that due to decreasing of the solid precipitation in winter time the snow presence duration becomes shorter over the European part of Russia and in the Western Siberia. The shortening in the Middle Siberia is caused by the spring warming. Durations of the snow occurrence in the Far East area are different. On the Chukotka peninsula the duration is longer because of the autumn fall in temperature while in the Kamchatka region the snow occurrence time is shorter due to significant decrease of a period with negative temperatures in both the autumn and spring seasons.
The objective of work is to study the influence of quasi-biennial oscillation of atmospheric processes on precipitation and frequency of the spring-summer drought against the background of the statistics of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity in different phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation and, consequently, on the yield of wheat in the European part of Russia. The area of the study is the grain zone of European Russia including the North Caucasus, Central Chernozem zone, Volga region and Southern Urals. The timeseries of values of speed and direction of zonal wind on an isobaric surface of 30 hPa for the period 1953–2011 was accepted as data characterizing the “classical” quasi-biennial (Data of Free University of Berlin, https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu). Decadic precipitation totals, indices of PDSI and SPI, snow depth in March, the frequency of centers of cyclones during the period of vegetation classified by phases of quasi-biennial. The increase of snow depth in March is revealed, as well as significant increase in precipitation and a reduction in the frequency of severe droughts in May associated with the intensification of cyclonic activity during the Western phase in relation to Eastern on a vast territory: the western region of Central Chernozem zone, Rostov region and Krasnodar krai. As a result of changing agro-climatic conditions depending on the phase of the quasi-biennial in the territory, it is found a significant excess of productivity of spring wheat during the Western phase against the Eastern phase. The yield of winter wheat was less sensitive to the quasi-biennial. The results of the study can be used to adequately address the problem of increasing the sustainability of harvests in Russia (improvement of agrometeorological practice, including prognostic aspects, and agroinsurance).
The dynamics of moistening indices and biophysical parameters (MODIS data) of arid pastures is examined for the southeast of the European part of Russia in five-year periods over 2000–2014. It was found that the dynamics was heterogeneous both in the temporal and spatial dimensions. The maximal moisture decrease was noted in 2005–2009 in dry-steppe and semidesert pastures. During 2010–2014, the moisture levels continued to decrease, though less intensively compared to the previous five-year period. The dynamics of biophysical parameters is determined by changes in moistening and the degradation of pastures due to overgrazing. The period of 2005–2009 was noted for reduced NDVI, deterioration of the vegetation condi-tions (VCI), and the growth of albedo and surface temperature in dry-steppe and partly semidesert pastures. The following period was marked by a shift of maximal changes in biophysical parameters to the Kalmyk Republic and the right-bank of Astrakhan oblast. This resulted in the appearance of preconditions for new anthropogenic desertification in the territory of Kalmyk Republic, which was detected by the desertification indicator.
Method of the North limit determination is suggested. It based on natural factors complex with domination of climatic ones. To the Russian North belong areas in Polar regions, where natural factors are worse than their threshold values along their south borders and became more worse in direction of high latitudes. The set of factors at their thresholds values forms the south border of the North. The thresholds are determined according conditions in unfavorable life landscapes as classifi ed by A.G. Isachenko. In the Russian North we differ the regions absolutely discomfort, extremely discomfort and discomfort.