Financial time series display inherent nonlinearity and high volatility, creating substantial challenges for accurate forecasting. Advancements in artificial intelligence have positioned deep learning as a critical tool for financial time series forecasting. However, conventional deep learning models often fail to accurately predict future trends in complex financial data due to inherent limitations. To address these challenges, this study introduces a WOA-BiLSTM-ARIMA hybrid forecasting model leveraging parameter optimization. Specifically, the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) optimizes hyperparameters for the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network, overcoming parameter tuning challenges in conventional approaches. Due to its strong capacity for nonlinear feature extraction, BiLSTM excels at modeling nonlinear patterns in financial time series. To mitigate the shortcomings of BiLSTM in capturing linear patterns, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology is integrated. By exploiting ARIMA’s strengths in modeling linear features, the model refines BiLSTM’s prediction residuals, achieving more accurate and comprehensive financial time series forecasting. To validate the model’s effectiveness, this paper applies it to the prediction experiment of future spread data. Compared to classical models, WOA-BiLSTM-ARIMA achieves significant improvements across multiple evaluation metrics. The mean squared error (MSE) is reduced by an average of 30.5%, the mean absolute error (MAE) by 20.8%, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) by 29.7%.
In the context of increasing demand for secure and efficient communication networks, addressing the issue of mutual authentication in ethernet passive optical networks (EPONs) has become both valuable and practically significant. This paper proposes a solution based on ideal lattices. The proposed scheme leverages the security of the ring learning with errors (RLWE) problem to establish a robust public-key cryptosystem. By involving ONUs, OLTs, and an SDN controller in the authentication process, it enables mutual authentication through a series of message exchanges facilitated by the SDN controller. Utilizing approximate smooth projection hash functions for secure key exchange and verification, the scheme ensures robust security performance against various attacks, including man-in-the-middle, impersonation, replay, and known key secrecy attacks. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed solution introduces minimal delay and maintains a high registration success rate compared to traditional authentication methods. Additionally, this paper explores the convergence of quantum network protocols with EPONs, highlighting their potential to achieve unprecedented levels of communication security. Integrating quantum technology with EPON networks, due to the unique security properties of quantum, can also better prevent man-in-the-middle attacks. Secure interception detection techniques based on fundamental quantum properties provide a fundamental security direction for future communication systems, aligning with the growing interest in quantum-resistant cryptographic protocols.
Financial market prediction faces significant challenges due to the complex temporal dependencies and heterogeneous data relationships inherent in futures price-spread data. Traditional machine learning methods struggle to effectively mine these patterns, while conventional long short-term memory (LSTM) models lack focused feature prioritization and suffer from suboptimal hyperparameter selection. This article proposes the Improved Grey Wolf Optimizer with Multi-headed Self-attention and LSTM (IGML) model, which integrates a multi-head self-attention mechanism to enhance feature interaction and introduces an improved grey wolf optimizer (IGWO) with four strategic enhancements for automated hyperparameter tuning. Benchmark tests on optimization problems validate IGWO’s superior convergence efficiency. Evaluated on real futures price-spread datasets, the IGML reduces mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) by up to 88% and 85%, respectively, compared to baseline models, demonstrating its practical efficacy in capturing intricate financial market dynamics.
To address the challenges in forecasting crude oil and hot-rolled coil futures prices, the aim is to transcend the constraints of conventional approaches. This involves effectively predicting short-term price fluctuations, developing quantitative trading strategies, and modeling time series data. The goal is to enhance prediction accuracy and stability, thereby supporting decision-making and risk management in financial markets. A novel approach, the multi-dimensional fusion feature-enhanced (MDFFE) prediction method has been devised. Additionally, a data augmentation framework leveraging multi-dimensional feature engineering has been established. The technical indicators, volatility indicators, time features, and cross-variety linkage features are integrated to build a prediction system, and the lag feature design is used to prevent data leakage. In addition, a deep fusion model is constructed, which combines the temporal feature extraction ability of the convolution neural network with the nonlinear mapping advantage of an extreme gradient boosting tree. With the help of a three-layer convolution neural network structure and adaptive weight fusion strategy, an end-to-end prediction framework is constructed. Experimental results demonstrate that the MDFFE model excels in various metrics, including mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, coefficient of determination, and sum of squared errors. The mean absolute error reaches as low as 0.0068, while the coefficient of determination can be as high as 0.9970. In addition, the significance and stability of the model performance were verified by statistical methods such as a paired t-test and ANOVA analysis of variance. This MDFFE algorithm offers a robust and practical approach for predicting commodity futures prices. It holds significant theoretical and practical value in financial market forecasting, enhancing prediction accuracy and mitigating forecast volatility.
Financial Time Series Forecasting (TSF) remains a critical challenge in Artificial Intelligence (AI) due to the inherent complexity of financial data, characterized by strong non-linearity, dynamic non-stationarity, and multi-factor coupling. To address the performance limitations of Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) caused by hyperparameter sensitivity, this study proposes an SNN model optimized by an Improved Cuckoo Search (ICS) algorithm (termed ICS-SNN). The ICS algorithm enhances global search capability through piecewise-mapping-based population initialization and introduces a dynamic discovery probability mechanism that adaptively increases with iteration rounds, thereby balancing exploration and exploitation. Applied to futures market price difference prediction, experimental results demonstrate that ICS-SNN achieves reductions of 13.82% in MAE, 21.27% in MSE, and 15.21% in MAPE, while improving the coefficient of determination (R2) from 0.9790 to 0.9822, compared to the baseline SNN. Furthermore, ICS-SNN significantly outperforms mainstream models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Backpropagation (BP) networks, reducing prediction errors by 10.8% (MAE) and 34.9% (MSE), respectively, without compromising computational efficiency. This work highlights that ICS-SNN provides a biologically plausible and computationally efficient framework for complex financial TSF, bridging the gap between neuromorphic principles and real-world financial analytics. The proposed method not only reduces manual intervention in hyperparameter tuning but also offers a scalable solution for high-frequency trading and multi-modal data fusion in future research.
Deep learning models struggle to effectively capture data features and make accurate predictions because of the strong non-linear characteristics of arbitrage data. Therefore, to fully exploit the model performance, researchers have focused on network structure and hyperparameter selection using various swarm intelligence algorithms for optimization. Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA), a classic heuristic method that simulates the sparrows’ foraging and anti-predatory behavior, has demonstrated excellent performance in various optimization problems. Hence, in this study, the Multi-Strategy Modified Sparrow Search Algorithm (MSMSSA) is applied to the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to construct an arbitrage spread prediction model (MSMSSA-LSTM). In the modified algorithm, the good point set theory, the proportion-adaptive strategy, and the improved location update method are introduced to further enhance the spatial exploration capability of the sparrow. The proposed model was evaluated using the real spread data of rebar and hot coil futures in the Chinese futures market. The obtained results showed that the mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, and mean absolute error of the proposed model had decreased by a maximum of 58.5%, 65.2%, and 67.6% compared to several classical models. The model has high accuracy in predicting arbitrage spreads, which can provide some reference for investors.
Arbitrage spread prediction can provide valuable insights into the identification of arbitrage signals and assessing associated risks in algorithmic trading. However, achieving precise forecasts by increasing model complexity remains a challenging task. Moreover, uncertainty in the development and maintenance of model often results in extremely unstable returns. To address these challenges, we propose a K-fold cross-search algorithm-optimized LSTM (KCS-LSTM) network for arbitrage spread prediction. The KCS heuristic algorithm incorporates an iterative updating mechanism of the search space with intervals as the basic unit into the traditional ant colony optimization. It optimized the hyperparameters of the LSTM model with a modified fitness function to automatically adapt to various data sets, thereby simplified and enhanced the efficiency of model development. The KCS-LSTM network was validated using real spread data of rebar and hot-rolled coil from the past three years. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms several common models on sMAPE by improving up to 12.6% to 72.4%. The KCS-LSTM network is shown to be competitive in predicting arbitrage spreads compared to complex neural network models.
Secure two-party computation allows a pair of parties to compute a function together while keeping their inputs private. Ultimately, each party receives only its own correct output. In this paper, a post-quantum secure two-party computation protocol is proposed that can be used to effectively block malicious parties. The protocol solves the problems of traditional protocols based on garbled circuits, which are vulnerable to quantum attacks, high communication costs and low computational efficiency. The input garbled keys of the circuit constructor is structured as a Learning with Error (LWE) equation, enabling the circuit constructor to employ a zero-knowledge proof that demonstrates the uniformity of inputs across all circuits.In the key transfer phase, an LWE-based batch single-choice cut-and-choose oblivious transfer is proposed to avoid selective failure attacks. In addition, the protocol employs a penalty mechanism to detect if the circuit constructor has generated an incorrect circuit. We have compared the communication overhead of this protocol with three other secure two-party computation protocols based on Cut-and-Choose technology. The analytical results show that this protocol has the best error probability and is resilient to quantum attacks under the malicious adversary model. In addition, with appropriate parameters, the protocol is able to reduce its communication bandwidth by an average of 40.41%.
Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, widely used for financial time forecasting, face challenges in arbitrage spread prediction, especially in hyperparameter tuning for large datasets. These issues affect model complexity adaptability to market dynamics. Existing heuristic algorithms for LSTM often struggle to capture the complex dynamics of futures spread data, limiting prediction accuracy. We propose an integrated Cuckoo and Zebra Algorithms-optimised (ICS-LSTM) network for arbitrage spread prediction. This method replaces the flight in the Cuckoo algorithm with the Zebra algorithm search, improving convergence speed and solution optimization. Experimental results showed absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.011, mean square error (MSE) of 3.326, absolute error (MAE) of 1.267, and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.996. proposed model improved performance by reducing MAPE by 8.3-50.0%, MSE 10.2-77.8%, and MAE by 9.3-63.0% compared to existing methods. These improvements translate to more accurate spread predictions, enhancing arbitrage opportunities and trading strategy profitability.
Due to its effectiveness as a risk-hedging trading strategy in financial markets, futures arbitrage is highly sought after by investors in turbulent market conditions. The essence of futures arbitrage lies in formulating strategies based on predictions of future futures price differentials. However, contemporary research predominantly focuses on projections of single indicators for the subsequent temporal juncture, and devising efficacious arbitrage strategies often necessitates the examination of multiple indicators across timeframes. To tackle the aforementioned challenge, our methodology leverages a PSO Deep-ConvLSTM network, which, through particle swarm optimization (PSO), refines hyperparameters, including layer architectures and learning rates, culminating in superior predictive performance. By analyzing temporal-spatial data within financial markets through ConvLSTM, the model captures intricate market patterns, performing better in forecasting than traditional models. Multistep forward simulation experiments and extensive ablation studies using future data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in China validate the effectiveness of the integrated model. Compared with the gate recurrent unit (GRU), long short-term memory (LSTM), Transformer, and FEDformer, this model exhibits an average reduction of 39.8% in root mean squared error (RMSE), 42.5% in mean absolute error (MAE), 45.6% in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and an average increase of 1.96% in coefficient of determination (R2) values.
Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, widely used for financial time series forecasting, face challenges in arbitrage spread prediction, especially in hyperparameter tuning for large datasets. These issues affect model complexity and adaptability to market dynamics. Existing heuristic algorithms for LSTM often struggle to capture the complex dynamics of futures spread data, limiting prediction accuracy. We propose an integrated Cuckoo and Zebra Algorithms-optimised LSTM (ICS-LSTM) network for arbitrage spread prediction. This method replaces the Lévy flight in the Cuckoo algorithm with the Zebra algorithm search, improving convergence speed and solution optimization. Experimental results showed a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.011, mean square error (MSE) of 3.326, mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.267, and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.996. The proposed model improved performance by reducing MAPE by 8.3–50.0%, MSE by 10.2–77.8%, and MAE by 9.3–63.0% compared to existing methods. These improvements translate to more accurate spread predictions, enhancing arbitrage opportunities and trading strategy profitability.
Federal learning and privacy protection are inseparable. The participants in federated learning need to be the targets of privacy protection. On the other hand, federated learning can also be used as a tool for privacy attacks. Group signature is regarded as an effective tool for preserving user privacy. Additionally, message recovery is a useful cryptographic primitive that ensures message recovery during the verification phase. In federated learning, message recovery can reduce the transmission of parameters and help protect parameter privacy. In this paper, we propose a lattice-based group signature with message recovery (GS-MR). We then prove that the GS-MR scheme has full anonymity and traceability under the random oracle model, and we reduce anonymity and traceability to the hardness assumptions of ring learning with errors (RLWE) and ring short integer solution (RSIS), respectively. Furthermore, we conduct some experiments to evaluate the sizes of key and signature, and make a performance comparison between three lattice-based group signature schemes and the GS-MR scheme. The results show that the message–signature size of GS-MR is reduced by an average of 39.17% for less than 2000 members.
Due to the limitation of the computing power and storage capacity of the device, the authentication key exchange protocol of the Internet of Things has higher requirements on the computation efficiency and communication efficiency. This paper proposes a lattice-based password authentication key exchange protocol based on key consensus, which can greatly reduce the time of key exchange. The proposed protocol uses the approximate smooth projection hash function and key consensus to design an asymmetric key agreement structure, which enables the device to realize key exchange while storing less authentication information. Compared with the existing password authentication key exchange protocols, the proposed protocol reduces the number of communications and the computation of the device during the protocol operation. In the paper, the computational cost of the prover is reduced to O(mn), and the amount of calculation on the device is cut in half. Finally, a longer session key can be generated by using this scheme. In addition, the security of the proposed protocol is based on the LWE difficulty problem, it can theoretically resist the attacks of the existing quantum algorithms.
Abstract An important problem of network traffic is how to efficiently carry massive amounts of data traffic generated by Peer-to-Peer (P2P) services in high-speed and large-capacity optical access networks. P2P file-sharing traffic is regarded as one of the biggest bandwidth consumption in the world. Internet service providers can reduce the bandwidth burden in the feeder fiber by localizing the network traffic. In this paper, we propose an enhanced redirection strategy based on the optimized MPCP protocol (ERS-MPCP) to redirect the traffic into the access network and reduce the latency. A Markov chain is used for mathematical modeling. In the proposed strategy, we build a simulation platform for network simulation. Simulation results show that our strategy can improve the overall redirection success rate by up to 9%, thereby reducing the data traffic burden on the core network.
随着计算机信息技术以及多维空间信息的快速增长,传统的空间分析服务技术已经无法满足多元异构的地形矢量数据、遥感影像栅格地理数据的存储、处理、展示等.经研究,与WebGIS相结合的方式才能提供更高质量的空间数据服务,面向空间分析的GeoServer服务自动发布以及影像自动切片技术对于处理较复杂的空间数据的设计思路和实现方法,将服务器上的动态空间数据减少人工干预,自动发布GIS服务,同时为加快数据访问效率,将数据进行自动切片,破解只有专业人员才能发布空间服务的困境,增加系统的灵活性.
With the increasing number of fibre access users, P2P file sharing download traffic has gradually become one of the enormous bandwidth consumptions for the access network. Localizing traffic could save bandwidth and reduce latency, but it caused optical line terminal (OLT) overload problems. A cloud-edge collaboration technology (IRS-CECT) based P2P redirection strategy is proposed for this problem. OLT assumes the role of the cloud computing centre in the strategy. Optical network unit (ONU) serves as an edge computing node to share traffic load for the cloud computing centre. ONU intercepts the upstream query packets for OLT. This strategy can reduce the problem of OLT overload caused by increasing users. Simulation results indicate that the IRS-CECT strategy can reduce the delay by nearly half and reduce the traffic load on the cloud computing centre OLT.
Abstract In the development of ethernet passive optical networks (EPONs), quality of service (QoS) support and fairness per optical network unit (ONU) are crucial issues. However, making an elaborate analysis of the existing prediction-based bandwidth allocation algorithm, light load penalty, low prediction precision are pointed out. We present an improved dynamic bandwidth pre-allocation algorithm (R-DBA), which employs recurrent neural network (RNN) to predict the high-priority service traffic in EPON. And we introduce mixed integer linear programming (MILP) for optimally building DBA algorithm. This algorithm achieves the prediction of the high-priority service traffic by RNN during the waiting time and supports bandwidth pre-allocation, thus ensuring the fairness of the bandwidth allocation.
随着时代的发展,互联网业务量的提升,越来越多的公司使用了微服务,在此趋势下,分布式主键变得越来越重要.目前,分布式主键的实现方式较多,有基于数据库自增的、基于UUID的、基于Redis自增的、基于数据库号段的.同时,越来越多的公司开始普及使用雪花算法,但是在使用过程中,存在着很多不足:其一,无论什么样的分布式主键都有着各自的缺陷,不能满足日益复杂的使用场景;其二,在业务开发过程中,为了满足各种各样的主键需求,需要实现不同的分布式主键.这加大了开发难度,也容易在分布式主键上产生很多问题,需要一个统一的分布式主键生成系统,支持多种类型的分布式主键,优化现有的分布式主键存在的问题.