The mesosphere/lower-thermosphere/ionosphere (MLTI) region is a critical boundary in the coupling of the atmosphere, climate and space weather, however it is one of the least understood regions, making it hard to include in whole atmosphere models. The EISCAT radars at Tromsø (UHF and VHF) have been measuring ionospheric parameters, such as electron density, for almost 4 decades making them an excellent resource to study changes in the ionosphere over a long time period. We have generated two data archives using 20 years of observations of EISCAT Tromsø from 2001 to 2021; the data have been re-analysed at 10-minutes and 1-hour integrations. These archives are used to study the different sources of variability in the MLTI from 50-200 km. This is the first time the mainland EISCAT data has been converted into a format that allows for long term statistical study. We have created electron density climatologies split by solar, geomagnetic and atmospheric indices to investigate the different drivers of variability in the MLTI region. We show seasonal averages of the electron density altitude profiles and compare our results to the Empirical Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Model (E-CHAIM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model.

The high latitude ionosphere is highly variable, being driven by multiple processes with their origins in space weather and the neutral atmosphere. The balance between these drivers is still not well understood, though it has been increasingly recognised that the influence of the neutral atmosphere can be significant. In this study we use data from the EISCAT UHF incoherent scatter radar to examine the variability of several ionospheric parameters (e.g. density, temperature, and ion flow) and how they relate to space weather activity and potentially to processes originating in the lower atmosphere, including periods of Joule heating and the passage of Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TID). We compare the distribution of the electron density taken from the UHF radar with that calculated from a run from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to identify times of similarity and deviation.

The important question of how much of the variability in the high latitude ionosphere is driven by atmospheric processes as opposed to space weather impacts remains unanswered. The EISCAT-3D radar provides a unique opportunity to probe this variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. One of the key aims of the DRIIVE project (DRivers and Impacts of Ionospheric Variability with EISCAT-3D) is to determine the balance of energy input to the lower ionosphere and quantify the variability under different atmospheric and geomagnetic conditions. Here we present a preliminary study of the variability using historic data from the EISCAT UHF radar taken over the course of several years in the winter months. We identify wave like signatures that occur simultaneously with Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TID) as seen in coherent radar data (SuperDARN), alongside enhancements due to energetic precipitation. The magnitude of the variations are compared for different years and different driving conditions. This study will allow us to optimize the design of future experiments for EISCAT-3D to study the variability while developing effective analysis techniques to maximise utility of the new radar system.

Solar tides play a major role in the dynamics of the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Hence, a comprehensive understanding of these tides is important for successful modelling of the MLT region. Most ground-based observations of tidal variations in the MLT have been from meteor radar measurements with a temporal resolution of 1 h. Here, we take a different perspective on these tidal variations using high-resolution 1 min neutral-wind measurements from the Falkland Islands SuperDARN (Super Dual Auroral Radar Network) radar. This analysis shows that these higher-resolution data can be used to identify higher frequency tidal components than are typically observed by meteor radars (up to a heptadiurnal component). It also shows evidence of significant power in these higher frequency components, particularly in the quaddiurnal component, which may be particularly suitable for a global analysis using high-resolution SuperDARN neutral-wind measurements. The high-resolution analysis also shows evidence of fluctuations with a frequency of 1.5 cycles per day, as well as higher-frequency fluctuations, accompanying a quasi-2 d (two day) wave. We discuss the limitations of this high-resolution analysis method and the new opportunities that it may provide. We conclude that higher-resolution SuperDARN neutral-wind measurements need to be better exploited in the future as they provide a complementary way of studying tides and waves in the MLT.

Abstract A significant increase in the number of anthropogenic objects in Earth orbit has necessitated the development of satellite conjunction assessment and collision avoidance capabilities for new spacecraft. Neutral mass density variability in the thermosphere, driven by enhanced geomagnetic activity and solar EUV absorption, is a major source of satellite propagation error. This work investigates the impacts of space weather driver forecasting uncertainty on satellite drag and collision avoidance maneuver decision‐making. Since most operational space weather driver forecasts do not offer an uncertainty assessment, the satellite operator community is left to make dangerous assumptions about the trustworthiness of the forecast models they use to perform satellite state propagation. Climatological persistence‐based forecast models are developed for F10.7 and Kp. These models accurately capture the heteroscedastic and, at times, highly non‐Gaussian uncertainty distribution on forecasts of the drivers of interest. A set of realistic satellite conjunction scenarios is simulated to demonstrate the contributions of space weather driver forecast uncertainty on the probability of collision and maneuver decisions. Improved driver forecasts, especially forecasts of F10.7, are demonstrated to be very useful for enabling durable maneuver decisions with additional lead time (up to 24 hr for the period examined), though the improvement depends on the specific conjunction scenario of interest.

Cold plasma of ionospheric origin has recently been found to be a much larger contributor to the magnetosphere of Earth than expected1, 2-3. Numerous competing mechanisms have been postulated to drive ion escape to space, including heating and acceleration by wave-particle interactions4 and a global electrostatic field between the ionosphere and space (called the ambipolar or polarization field)5,6. Observations of heated O+ ions in the magnetosphere are consistent with resonant wave-particle interactions7. By contrast, observations of cold supersonic H+ flowing out of the polar ionosphere8,9 (called the polar wind) suggest the presence of an electrostatic field. Here we report the existence of a +0.55 +/- 0.09 V electric potential drop between 250 km and 768 km from a planetary electrostatic field (E parallel to circle plus = 1.09 +/- 0.17 mu V m-1) generated exclusively by the outward pressure of ionospheric electrons. We experimentally demonstrate that the ambipolar field of Earth controls the structure of the polar ionosphere, boosting the scale height by 271%. We infer that this increases the supply of cold O+ ions to the magnetosphere by more than 3,800%, in which other mechanisms such as wave-particle interactions can heat and further accelerate them to escape velocity. The electrostatic field of Earth is strong enough by itself to drive the polar wind9,10 and is probably the origin of the cold H+ ion population1 that dominates much of the magnetosphere2,3.

The joint European Space Agency and Chinese Academy of Sciences Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer (SMILE) mission will explore global dynamics of the magnetosphere under varying solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions, and simultaneously monitor the auroral response of the Northern Hemisphere ionosphere. Combining these large-scale responses with medium and fine-scale measurements at a variety of cadences by additional ground-based and space-based instruments will enable a much greater scientific impact beyond the original goals of the SMILE mission. Here, we describe current community efforts to prepare for SMILE, and the benefits and context various experiments that have explicitly expressed support for SMILE can of fer. A dedicated group of international scientists representing many different experiment types and geographical locations, the Ground-based and Additional Science Working Group, is facilitating these efforts. Preparations include constructing an online SMILE Data Fusion Facility, the discussion of particular or special modes for experiments such as coherent and incoherent scatter radar, and the consideration of particular observing strategies and spacecraft conjunctions. We anticipate growing interest and community engagement with the SMILE mission, and we welcome novel ideas and insights from the solarterrestrial community.

Compositional NOx changes caused by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) at a specific altitude and those co-dependent on vertical transport are referred to as the EEP direct and indirect effect, respectively. The direct effect of EEP at lower mesospheric and upper stratospheric altitudes is linked to the high-energy tail of EEP (≳ 300 keV). The relative importance of this direct effect on NOx, ozone, and atmospheric dynamics remains unresolved due to inadequate particle measurements and scarcity of polar mesospheric NOx observations. An accurate parameterization of the high-energy tail of EEP is, therefore, crucial. This study utilizes EEP flux data from MEPED aboard the POES/Metop satellites from 2004–2014. Data from both hemispheres (55–70° N/S) are combined in daily flux estimates. 164 peaks above the 90th percentile of the ≳ 30 keV flux are identified. These peaks are categorized into absolute E1 and E3 events representing weak and strong ≳ 300 keV responses, respectively. A subset of absolute E1 and E3 events with similar ≳ 30 keV responses is termed overlapping events. Additionally, relative E1 and E3 events are determined by the relative strength of the ≳ 300 keV response, scaled by the initial ≳ 30 keV flux. A comparison between E1 and E3 events aims to identify solar wind and geomagnetic conditions leading to high-energy EEP responses and to gain insight into the conditions that generate a high-energy tail, independent of the initial ≳ 30 keV flux level. Superposed epoch analysis of mesospheric NO density from SOFIE confirms an observable direct impact on lower mesospheric chemistry associated with the absolute E3 events. A probability assessment based on absolute events identifies specific thresholds in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function (epsilon) and the geomagnetic indices Kp*10 and Dst, capable of determining the occurrence or exclusion of absolute E1 and E3 events. Elevated solar wind speeds persisting in the recovery phase of a deep Dst trough appear characteristic of overlapping and relative E3 events. This study provides insight into which parameters are important for accurately modeling the high-energy tail of EEP.

Long-term reduction (similar to 20km) in the height of the ionospheric F2 layer, hmF2, is predicted to result from increased levels of tropospheric greenhouse gases. Sufficiently long sequences of ionospheric data exist in order for us to investigate this long-term change, recorded by a global network of ionosondes. However, direct measurements of ionospheric-layer height with these instruments is not possible. As a result, most estimates of hmF2 rely on empirical formulae based on parameters routinely scaled from ionograms. Estimates of trends in hmF2 using these formulae show no global consensus. We present an analysis in which data from the Japanese ionosonde station at Kokubunji were used to estimate monthly median values of hmF2 using an empirical formula. These were then compared with direct measurements of the F2 layer height determined from incoherent-scatter measurements made at the Shigaraki MU Observatory, Japan. Our results reveal that the formula introduces diurnal, seasonal, and long-term biases in the estimates of hmF2 of approximate to +/- 10% (+/- 25km at an altitude of 250km). These are of similar magnitude to layer height changes anticipated as a result of climate change. The biases in the formula can be explained by changes in thermospheric composition that simultaneously reduce the peak density of the F2 layer and modulate the underlying F1 layer ionization. The presence of an F1 layer is not accounted for in the empirical formula. We demonstrate that, for Kokobunji, the ratios of F2 / E and F2 / F1 critical frequencies are strongly controlled by changes in geomagnetic activity represented by the am index. Changes in thermospheric composition in response to geomagnetic activity have previously been shown to be highly localized. We conclude that localized changes in thermospheric composition modulate the F2 / E and F2 / F1 peak ratios, leading to differences in hmF2 trends. We further conclude that the influence of thermospheric composition on the underlying ionosphere needs to be accounted for in these empirical formulae if they are to be applied to studies of long-term ionospheric change.

Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are increasing radiative cooling in the upper atmosphere, leading to thermospheric contraction and decreased neutral mass densities at fixed altitudes. Previous studies of the historic neutral density trend have shown a dependence upon solar activity, with larger F10.7 values resulting in lower neutral density reductions. To investigate the impact on the future thermosphere, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with ionosphere and thermosphere extension (WACCM-X) has been used to simulate the thermosphere under increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and varying solar activity conditions. These neutral density reductions have then been mapped onto the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The neutral density reductions can also be used as a scaling factor, allowing commonly used empirical models to account for CO$_2$ trends. Under the“best case’ SSP1-2.6 scenario, neutral densities reductions at 400 km altitude peak (when CO$_2$ = 474 ppm) at a reduction of 13 to 30\% (under high and low solar activity respectively) compared to the year 2000. Higher CO$_2$ concentrations lead to greater density reductions, with the largest modelled concentration of 890 ppm resulting in a 50 to 77 \% reduction at 400 km, under high and low solar activity respectively.

AbstractThe high latitude ionospheric evolution of the May 10‐11, 2024, geomagnetic storm is investigated in terms of Total Electron Content and contextualized with Incoherent Scatter Radar and ionosonde observations. Substantial plasma lifting is observed within the initial Storm Enhanced Density plume with ionospheric peak heights increasing by 150–300 km, reaching levels of up to 630 km. Scintillation is observed within the cusp during the initial expansion phase of the storm, spreading across the auroral oval thereafter. Patch transport into the polar cap produces broad regions of scintillation that are rapidly cleared from the region after a strong Interplanetary Magnetic Field reversal at 2230UT. Strong heating and composition changes result in the complete absence of the F2‐layer on the eleventh, suffocating high latitude convection from dense plasma necessary for Tongue of Ionization and patch formation, ultimately resulting in a suppression of polar cap scintillation on the eleventh.

<p>Compositional NOx changes caused by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) at a specific altitude are called the EEP direct effect. Changes co-dependent on vertical transport are referred to as the EEP indirect effect. The relative importance of EEP’s direct and indirect effect on NO and its subsequent impact on ozone and dynamic changes remain unresolved. The challenges are partly due to inadequate particle measurement and the relative scarcity of NO observations over the polar MLT region. Moreover, lower production rates in the mesosphere make it challenging to determine EEP’s direct impact on NO since small in-situ enhancements cannot be easily distinguished from the descending NO-rich air masses in the winter hemisphere. In this study, the uncertainty of the EEP observations is bypassed by exclusively identifying events applying NO-observations from the SOFIE instrument on board the AIM satellite. SOFIE daily averaged data from 2007 to 2014 is used to create a climatology based on the mean of the lower half of the data (lower 50 percentile mean). A direct EEP-produced NO-event at 90 km (“90km-event”) is identified when the NO density surpasses the climatology by 100%. If the NO density exceeds 25% above the climatology at 80, 70, 60, and 50 km, the event qualifies as a “50km-event”. By contrasting the 90km and 50km events, the characteristics of the solar wind and geomagnetic indices, as well as observed electron fluxes from POES, are studied. The goal is to unravel when EEP can produce NO directly in the upper stratosphere. The result will contribute to developing a parameterization of EEP from the radiation belt that includes both the direct and indirect impact of EEP to decipher the total EEP effect on the ozone and atmospheric dynamics.</p>

An international joint research project, entitled Interhemispheric Coupling Study by Observations and Modelling (ICSOM), is ongoing. In the late 2000s, an interesting form of interhemispheric coupling (IHC) was discovered: when warming occurs in the winter polar stratosphere, the upper mesosphere in the summer hemisphere also becomes warmer with a time lag of days. This IHC phenomenon is considered to be a coupling through processes in the middle atmosphere (i.e., stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere). Several plausible mechanisms have been proposed so far, but they are still controversial. This is mainly because of the difficulty in observing and simulating gravity waves (GWs) at small scales, despite the important role they are known to play in middle atmosphere dynamics. In this project, by networking sparsely but globally distributed radars, mesospheric GWs have been simultaneously observed in seven boreal winters since 2015/16. We have succeeded in capturing five stratospheric sudden warming events and two polar vortex intensification events. This project also includes the development of a new data assimilation system to generate long-term reanalysis data for the whole middle atmosphere, and simulations by a state-of-the-art GW-permitting general circulation model using the reanalysis data as initial values. By analyzing data from these observations, data assimilation, and model simulation, comprehensive studies to investigate the mechanism of IHC are planned. This paper provides an overview of ICSOM, but even initial results suggest that not only GWs but also large-scale waves are important for the mechanism of the IHC.

EISCAT_3D provides an unprecedented opportunity to study key processes in the auroral latitude ionosphere across multiple scales.DRIIVE exploits the unique capabilities of EISCAT_3D to identify the key atmospheric and space weather drivers of variability in the ionosphere-thermosphere system, and to determine the impact of small-scale processes on thermospheric density and the satellite orbital environment.The project will identify the effects of lower atmosphere forcing and changes to local composition, while measuring energy input from space weather processes. Findings on the impact of small-scale changes will be fed into the next generation of large-scale models, working closely with stakeholders across the space and atmosphere communities. DRIIVE involves 24 scientists from 19 UK institutes, partnering with international colleagues from 9 other countries.This poster provides an overview of the project science, key data sets and techniques that will be applied to advance our understanding of multi-scale processes in the ionosphere.

Plasmaspheric hiss waves at the Earth are well known for causing losses of electrons from the radiation belts through wave particle interactions. At Saturn, however, we show that the different plasma density environment leads to acceleration of the electrons rather than loss. The ratio of plasma frequency to electron gyrofrequency frequently falls below one creating conditions for hiss to accelerate electrons. The location of hiss at high latitudes (>25°) coincides very well with this region of very low density. The interaction between electrons and hiss only occurs at these higher latitudes, therefore the acceleration is limited to mid to low pitch angles leading to butterfly pitch angle distributions. The hiss is typically an order of magnitude stronger than chorus at Saturn and the resulting acceleration is rapid, approaching steady state in one day at 0.4 MeV at L = 7 and the effect is stronger with increasing L‐shell.

NASA’s Endurance sounding rocket (yard No. 47.001) will launch from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard in May 2022 on a solid fueled Oriole III-A launch vehicle. Its $\sim19$ minute flight will carry it to an altitude of $\sim780~\text{km}$ above Earth’s sunlit polar cap. Its objective is to make the first measurement of the weak “ambipolar” electric field generated by Earth’s ionosphere. This field is thought to play a critical role in the upwelling and escape of ionospheric ions, and thus potentially in the evolution of Earth’s atmosphere. The results will enable us to determine the importance to ion escape of this previously unmeasured fundamental property of our planet, which will aid in a better understanding of what makes Earth habitable. Endurance will carry six science instruments (with 16 sensors) that will measure the total electrical potential drop below the spacecraft, and the physical parameters required to understand the physics of what generates the ambipolar field. The mission will be supported by simultaneous observations of solar and geomagnetic activity.

We have investigated the difference between two standard techniques for deriving the ionospheric ion velocity using data taken with the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar between 1987 and 2007. For large‐scale convection flows, there is little difference between the tristatic and monostatic techniques, though the biggest relative difference occurs during periods when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is strongly northward. At small scales the difference between the two techniques is correlated with a measure of the variability of the tristatic measurement. This suggests that small‐scale flow bursts, such as those associated with enhanced auroral arcs, could explain the local time variation in the velocity difference distributions. The difference in velocities obtained from the monostatic and tristatic techniques can make a significant difference in the estimate of the magnitude of Joule heating in the thermosphere. Considering only the electric field dominated component of Joule heating, Q , the difference in the two techniques can be as much as 52% of the tristatic measurement ( Q m = 0.48 Q t ) in the morning sector (0–6 MLT), during a moderate to large geomagnetic storm. This reduces to a difference of 36% at non‐storm times in the same MLT period. Careful averaging of the velocity field with the future EISCAT_3D radar system will allow us to establish the impact of both spatial and temporal scales on the magnitude of the observations.

The location, shape, and size of the magnetospheric polar cusps are heavily influenced by upstream solar wind conditions. The effects of dominant IMF Bz and By components on the cusp are now well known. However, the effect of a strong IMF Bx component on the structure of the polar cusps is relatively unexplored. We present a case study of data recorded by the four Cluster spacecraft during a crossing of the northern hemisphere high altitude cusp in the winter season of 2018, when the IMF is directed southward and sunward. The Cluster spacecraft traverse the high-altitude cusp with separations between several hundred km and 1.5 Earth radii between each spacecraft, and travel at a roughly constant latitude with changing MLT. We study these observations in conjunction with those of the ground based SuperDARN radars. Each spacecraft observes many flux transfer type events within the cusp, although some events are not seen on all 4 spacecraft. The magnetic field orientation often varies significantly during each distinct passage through individual flux tubes, clearly departing from the background magnetic field direction expected in the northern hemisphere high altitude cusp. A number of these events show bidirectional electron flux signatures typical of those expected on recently reconnected open northern hemisphere flux tubes. However, some flux tubes appear to be populated only by antiparallel moving electrons, while others show an isotropic distribution of electrons and ions. The SuperDARN STO radar site observes Poleward Moving Auroral Forms (PMAFs), consistent with the interpretation that Cluster observes open flux tubes, however the directions of convecting flux tubes seen by Cluster are not always consistent with the SuperDARN picture. We consider whether the influence of the strong IMF Bx results in the relocation of the dayside reconnection site to high northern latitudes, allowing Cluster to encounter a mix of open flux tubes in the northern cusp, each of which may be connected to either the Northern or Southern polar ionosphere. The latter configuration may be particularly supported if reconnection near the cusp results in southern hemisphere open field lines being driven anti-sunward into the northern cusp as a result of enhanced sheath flows overcoming their magnetic tension at these latitudes.

Increasing carbon dioxide causes cooling in the upper atmosphere and a secular decrease in atmospheric density over time. With the use of the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM‐X), neutral thermospheric densities up to 500 km have been modeled under increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. Only carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide concentrations are changed between simulations, and solar activity is held low at F10.7 = 70 throughout. Neutral density decreases through to the year 2100 have been modeled using four carbon dioxide emission scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The years 1975 and 2005 have also been simulated, which indicated a historic trend of −5.8% change in neutral density per decade. Decreases in the neutral density relative to the year 2000 have been given for increasing ground‐level carbon dioxide concentrations. WACCM‐X shows there has already been a 17% decrease in neutral densities at 400 km relative to the density in the year 2000. This becomes a 30% reduction at the 50:50 probability threshold of limiting warming to 1.5°C, as set out in the Paris Agreement. A simple orbital propagator has been used to show the impact the decrease in density has on the orbital lifetime of objects traveling through the thermosphere. If the 1.5°C target is met, objects in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will have orbital lifetimes around 30% longer than comparable objects from the year 2000.

Earth and Space Science Open Archive This preprint has been submitted to and is under consideration at Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. ESSOAr is a venue for early communication or feedback before peer review. Data may be preliminary.Learn more about preprints preprintOpen AccessYou are viewing the latest version by default [v1]Future decreases in thermospheric density in very low Earth orbitAuthorsMatthew KennethBrowniDHughLewisiDAndrew JohnKavanaghIngridCnosseniDSee all authors Matthew Kenneth BrowniDCorresponding Author• Submitting AuthorUniversity of SouthamptoniDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5043-1330view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressHugh LewisiDUniversity of SouthamptoniDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3946-8757view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressAndrew John KavanaghBritish Antarctic Surveyview email addressThe email was not providedcopy email addressIngrid CnosseniDBritish Antarctic SurveyiDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6469-7861view email addressThe email was not providedcopy email address