(2018). Mitigation Using Solar, Wind and Batteries in the Caribbean. Caribbean Quarterly: Vol. 64, No. 1, pp. 100-113.

Dengue fever is one of the most severe insect-borne viral infections; it is potentially fatal and is currently endemic in more than 100 countries in Africa, the Americas, the Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific, with Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific being the most seriously affected (WHO, 1997). It is a flu-like illness but may develop into the more serious dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome, which can result in death. In the Caribbean, virological evidence of dengue fever was first obtained in the 1950s, although the disease is believed to have existed there for the past 200 years (Ehrenkranz et al, 1971). The outbreak of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Cuba in 1981, which affected almost half the population, is considered to be one of the most important events in the history of dengue in the Americas (CAREC, 1997). Since this event there have been confirmed or suspected cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever almost every year in the American region. The last large epidemic in Jamaica occurred about ten years ago.

Present-day (1979–2003) and future (2075–2099) simulations of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature are examined using data from the Meteorological Research Institute super-high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Analyses are performed over the 20-km model grid for (1) a main Caribbean basin, (2) sub-regional zones, and (3) specific Caribbean islands. Though the model’s topography underestimates heights over the eastern Caribbean, it captures well the present-day spatial and temporal variations of seasonal and annual climates. Temperature underestimations range from 0.1 °C to 2 °C with respect to the Japanese Reanalysis and the Climatic Research Unit datasets. The model also captures fairly well sub-regional scale variations in the rainfall climatology. End-of-century projections under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A1B scenario indicate declines in rainfall amounts by 10–20 % for most of the Caribbean during the early (May–July) and late (August–October) rainy seasons relative to the 1979–2003 baselines. The early dry season (November–January) is also projected to get wetter in the far north and south Caribbean by approximately 10 %. The model also projects a warming of 2–3 °C over the Caribbean region. Analysis of future climate extremes indicate a 5–10 % decrease in the simple daily precipitation intensity but no significant change in the number of consecutive dry days for Cuba, Jamaica, southern Bahamas, and Haiti. There is also indication that the number of hot days and nights will significantly increase over the main Caribbean basin.

Les économies des pays caribéens, les modes de vie, les activités, les pratiques et les cycles opérationnels sont intimement liés au climat, à cause de la vulnérabilité de ces sociétés face aux changements climatiques et/ou aux variations de ces deniers. Les extrêmes climatiques affectent l’agriculture, la pêche, la santé, le tourisme, l’approvisionnement en eau, la consommation d’énergie, pour ne citer que quelques exemples. Cependant, peu d’importance est accordé au climat dans les plans de développement à long terme, ni dans le développement des politiques publiques de la région. Ceci est dû en partie à un manque de connaissance sur le changement climatique, sa probable manifestation dans la région et son possible impact dans les sociétés caribéennes. Cet article présente une vue d’ensemble de la croissante banque de connaissances sur la science du climat caribéen ; ses changements et ses variabilités. On propose une brève description des éléments fondamentaux de la science qui étudie le changement climatique, les tendances passées et les projections futures pour le climat dans la Caraïbe, ainsi que les menaces que représentent les changements climatiques, tout en considérant que tenant compte la science climatique caribéenne dispose suffisamment de données récentes. En outre, on présente un aperçu général de la façon dont le problème climatique pourrait être abordé.

Interbasin and intrabasin gradients play an important role as a part of a regional system of Caribbean climate drivers, which include the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) and the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ). When the Caribbean is conditioned to be wet between May and November, near-surface geopotentials in the Caribbean are lower than in the nearby eastern tropical Pacific and east tropical Atlantic. As a result, there is vertical ascent in the Caribbean through to the middle troposphere which connects to zonal circulations with both the eastern tropical Pacific and the eastern tropical Atlantic. The Caribbean Sea is also warm, and there is a moderate easterly flow regime, indicating a weakening of the trade winds. Deviations from this state caused by changes in one or both sides of the Pacific-Caribbean and Caribbean-Atlantic circulations (and diagnosed by changes in their geopotential gradients) reasonably track the transition of the Caribbean from wet to dry and vice versa on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. The study also uses changes to the gradients to offer insight into why the Caribbean region is projected to be drier during its traditional rainy season in the face of warmer surface temperatures under global warming. The Caribbean seemingly enters into a "July" mode, which persists for the duration of the boreal summer. The mode is characterized by higher (lower) geopotentials in the Caribbean (Pacific and Atlantic), a stronger CLLJ, and anomalous descent in the Caribbean in spite of the warmer surface temperatures.

Introduction The Climate Studies Group Mona (CSGM) was launched in 1994, in the Department of Physics, the University of the West Indies, Mona campus. The initiative was set in motion by Professor the Honourable A. Anthony Chen, O. M., Professor of Applied Physics. During the formative years we were given valuable assistance from by the Centre for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA), the Inter American Institute (IAI) for A Global Change Research and The University of the West Indies Research Fellowship Programme. The group, which now comprises lecturers, postgraduate and undergraduate students, and associate members (former students), has made significant contributions to the study of Caribbean climate. These include, identifying atmospheric and oceanic influences on our climate, investigating climate change and its impact, isolating the relation between climate and crop yield for sugar cane, climate and incidences of dengue fever outbreak, and investigating renewable energy prospects for Jamaica. This article outlines the work of the CSGM and its significance in a local, regional and international context. Mission At its inception, the primary aim of CSGM was to learn the techniques of dynamic modelling of climate by numerical models. Since then, however, the group's activities have expanded to include applications of climate prediction, projections of regional climate change, and prospecting for alternative energy resources as a means of reducing energy costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore the mission of the CSGM is as follows: * To investigate and understand the mechanisms responsible for a) the mean climate and b) extremes in climate in both Jamaica and the wider Caribbean; * To use this understanding to predict climate on a seasonal and annual basis; * To promote awareness of global warming and to determine how anthropogenic climate change will manifest itself in the Caribbean region; * To investigate the potential for exploiting renewable energy resources; and * To investigate and promote the advantageous uses of climate prediction in socio-economic sectors Pioneering Work Over the last 14 years, the CSGM has been involved in ground-breaking research that has resulted in significant contributions to atmospheric science and society. These include: * The mapping of the average solar radiation available to Jamaica, the results of which highlight the strong prospects of solar photovoltaics applications. * The modelling of wind speed and power across Jamaica, thereby identifying regions with good potential for utility-scale wind power. * Identifying an increase in early season (May-July) rainfall amounts in the year following the onset of an El Nino event. This is in contrast to the amplified dryness over the Caribbean frequently reported in literature in relation to the onset of El Nino. * Elucidating the impact of meteorological drought on sugar cane productions. * Clarifying the role of both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in modulating seasonal rainfall over the Caribbean and adjacent Caribbean regions. * The issuing of seasonal Precipitation Outlooks for Jamaica, made possible by the creation of statistical models for the early (May- July) and late (August-October) rainfall seasons for the Caribbean and mid-dry season (January-February) rainfall for the eastern Caribbean and Jamaica. * Proposing the atmospheric circulation patterns that facilitate the rainfall gradient pattern evident during the dry season (November- April) for the mature El Nino. It was found that the gradient pattern involved higher than normal rainfall over the northern Caribbean (north of 20°) and below normal over the southern Caribbean in relation to El Nino. * Identifying the evidence of climate change over the Caribbean particularly with respect to temperature. * The development of a Caribbean Climate Interactive Database. …

The seasonality, patterns and the climate associations of the reported cases of dengue in the Caribbean were studied by analyzing the annual and monthly variability of reported cases as well as those of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation). More attention was given to Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Jamaica, as those countries contributed mostly to the reported cases. The data were for the period 1980–2003. Results showed that the incidence of dengue in the Caribbean were higher in the last decade (1990s) compared to that in the previous decade (1980s). The yearly patterns of dengue exhibited a well-defined seasonality. The epidemics appeared to occur in the later half of the year following onset of rainfall and increasing temperature. Analysis revealed that the association of the epidemics with temperature was stronger, especially in relation to the onset of dengue, and the probability of epidemics was high during El Niño periods. In years with early warmer periods epidemics appeared to occur early, which was a scenario more probable in the year after an El Niño (an El Niño + 1 year). Indices linked to temperatures that are useful for gauging the potential for onset of dengue were examined. An index based on a moving average temperature (MAT) appeared to be effective in gauging such potential and its average (AMAT) signals a threshold effect. MAT index has potential use in adaptation and mitigation strategies.