Road-transport decarbonisation in small island developing states hinges on import-driven fleet dynamics and the policy instruments that shape technology uptake. Using Jamaica as a case study, this paper analyses a vehicle-import microdataset and an aggregate fuel-consumption series for 2014–2023 to characterise market structure, trace early electric-vehicle (EV) adoption, and evaluate short-run disruptions and predictive performance. Lorenz–Gini analysis reveals strong concentration in import values (Gini = 0.84), consistent with a market dominated by used internal-combustion vehicles. HS-code profiling shows that EV-related imports are nascent but expanding across a small set of product codes. An interrupted time-series model with a 2020 intervention identifies a statistically significant pre-pandemic upward trend in annual vehicle imports but finds no significant level shift or post-2020 trend change. For short-horizon forecasting of annual imports, Auto-ARIMA outperforms naïve and linear-trend benchmarks (MAPE ≈ 6.5

This study evaluates the impact of Grenada’s import-duty incentives on vehicle imports, fleet composition, fuel demand, fiscal revenues, and supply-chain resilience. Analysis of available customs data from 2010–2025 reveals distinct import trends: internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles-maintained dominance, with import values peaking near XCD 70 million in 2023, shifting towards higher-value models. Hybrid vehicle imports increased sharply from negligible levels in 2020 to 175 units valued at approximately XCD 35 million by 2024, capturing 32% of the vehicle market due to reduced import duties. Despite aggressive incentives, electric vehicles (EVs) remained limited at 53 units in 2024, primarily luxury models from the UK and China, underscoring persistent affordability and infrastructure barriers.Fuel imports rebounded significantly post-pandemic, increasing from XCD 60 million in 2020 to nearly XCD 100 million by 2023, driven by continued reliance on an ageing ICE vehicle fleet averaging 9–12 years old. Vehicle parts imports also grew steadily, reaching over XCD 14 million by 2024, reflecting rising maintenance demands linked to older vehicles. Fiscal vulnerability emerged as import taxes from ICE vehicles declined dramatically from 77% to approximately 40% of declared import values between 2020 and 2024, without sufficient compensatory revenue from hybrid or EV imports.To address these challenges, this paper recommends integrated policy actions, including tiered import duties favouring affordable hybrids and EVs, stricter import-age limits, weight-based vehicle duties, accelerated ICE retirement programs, targeted affordability incentives, diversified supply chains, enhanced renewable-powered infrastructure, and strategic fiscal restructuring. Implementing these measures would support Grenada’s electric mobility targets, ensure fiscal stability, improve environmental outcomes, and enhance energy security.

ABSTRACT Battery‐electric bus (BEB) dispatch reliability in hot climates is limited by day‐to‐day variability in energy demand and by uncertainty in auxiliary loads and charging access. We develop a telemetry‐anchored digital twin workflow that converts a calibrated MATLAB/Simulink longitudinal energy model into reliability‐based dispatch guidance using day‐aware splits (DayID) and day‐weighted evaluation. Using telematics from two BEBs operating in Belize (131 bus‐days; 1341 exported segments; 1187 QC‐passing segments and 674 segments used for fitting and scenario simulation), the calibrated model achieves median absolute day‐level noncharging energy errors of 11.3% (train), 12.4% (validation) and 13.5% (test), with median filtered‐power RMSE of 7.6–7.8 kW across splits. We define shortfall risk via p ‐quantile ‘safe distance’ thresholds computed from simulated range‐to‐reserve and estimate conservative envelopes using day‐bootstrap lower confidence bounds. Out‐of‐sample quantile‐transfer diagnostics show pooled p10 thresholds transfer close to nominal shortfall frequencies, whereas the long‐duty regime requires conservative treatment. Scenario sweeps over temperature, reserve SoC (0.10–0.25), HVAC efficiency and usable capacity indicate that battery‐only feasibility tightens sharply under heat stress; temperatures above the observed telemetry window (≈ 23.8°C–31.5°C) are treated as scenario‐planning stress tests (e.g., pooled reserve limit declines from 0.17 at 28°C to 0.11 at 32°C and becomes infeasible at 35°C within the tested reserve grid). Crediting observed opportunity charging (median 22–64 kWh/day depending on day type) expands feasible reserve envelopes and converts residual gaps into minutes‐scale charging requirements under typical charger powers; this ‘with‐charge’ case is an upper bound unless comparable charging access can be ensured operationally. The resulting dispatch charts and temperature‐binned reserve rulebook provide an operational interface from calibrated energy modelling to reliability‐based planning, with explicit flags where reserve policy alone is insufficient.

Battery-electric buses (BEBs) are increasingly promoted for urban transport decarbonisation, yet their in-service planning performance in hot, low-speed Small Island Developing States (SIDS) remains poorly documented. This study examines a two-bus municipal BEB pilot in Belize City using asynchronous CAN-bus telematics, electricvehicle (EV) energy counters, odometer and speed diagnostics, automatic passenger-counting (APC) data for one bus, depot charger metering, weather data and operator financial records. After validation, the main energyanalysis subset comprises 408 valid operating bus-days and 83,853 km from March to November 2025. The raw battery-power diagnostic uses a negative-discharge convention; daily energy intensity is therefore reported primarily from EV energy-counter increments rather than direct integration of raw power. Fleet weighted mean energy intensity is 1.28 kWh/km, giving a median implied single-charge range of 161 km from the manufacturerstated 206 kWh battery energy capacity, compared with the 290 km air-conditioning-off SORT 1 manufacturer rating. A minute-level virtual propulsion model estimates a median auxiliary/HVAC residual of 13.7% of daily traction-battery discharge, while EV-counter idling alone accounts for 8.9%. Passenger occupancy has weak explanatory power for vehicle-level kWh/km but strongly affects passenger-normalised efficiency through load factor. Electricity operating energy cost is approximately BZ$0.80-0.90/km, below a diesel fuel-cost counterfactual of approximately BZ$1.53/km, although this comparison excludes capital, financing, infrastructure and battery-replacement costs. The results show that BEB planning in Belize City should use validated local kWh/km distributions, duty-cycle range envelopes and auxiliary-residual parameters rather than manufacturer range alone.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) remain locked into diesel generation and fragile low-voltage grids. This study integrates a four-month, fifteen- minute SCADA record from a 100 kWp PV array, lithium-ion battery energy storage system ( BESS) and 50 kW DC fast-charger at a Trinidad and Tobago filling station to quantify power-quality losses, economics, and forecasting. Phase-resolved IEEE-519 analysis shows current total harmonic distortion (THD) breaching the 5% limit in 35%–45% of intervals, with 95th-percentile distortion peaking at 11%, triggering inverter curtailment. Consequently the dry-season specific yield is only 1.72 kWh kWp−1 day−1 (20.6 MWh total) and Net Present Value (NPV) stands at –US$0.72 M. K-means clustering isolates a “heavy-harmonic” mode affecting 15% of operation, while Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) 15-min-ahead forecasts achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE)= 6.1 kW—over 50% lower error than Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX). Modelling indicates that active harmonic filtering, bi-weekly cleaning and solar-aligned electric vehicle (EV) tariffs can lift annual yield by >20%, flip NPV to +US$0.18 M and avoid 2.9 kt CO2 over 30 years. These minute-level results provide the first Caribbean evidence that power-quality governance, machine-learning control, and tariff reform jointly unlock bankable PV-BESS-EV hubs, informing grid codes, and -mobility policy across SIDS.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM) create asymmetric risks for small, fossil-fuel-dependent exporters. We analyse Trinidad and Tobago’s 2020–2024 merchandise exports using HS6-by-market mirror data to compute CBAM Value-at-Risk (VaR) at €90/tCO₂, construct a Switching Potential Index (SPI) to measure product-level switchability, simulate partial-equilibrium reallocation of CBAM-affected flows, and solve a capacity-constrained export-portfolio optimisation problem. Exports peak at USD 19.9 bn in 2022 before falling 51% to USD 9.8 bn by 2024. CBAM VaR is highly concentrated (fertiliser mixtures alone exceed USD 500 m), and CBAM-covered products exhibit systematically lower SPI (median 0.17). CBAM-covered EU/UK exports embed about 0.61 MtCO₂, almost entirely in two strategic quadrants: “Reallocate now” and “Retain & decarbonize”. A modest 30% emissions-intensity reduction for the latter cuts export-embedded emissions by roughly 90 ktCO₂ (≈ 15% of CBAM-embedded emissions). Reallocation can offset EU (− USD 25.2 m) and UK (− USD 13.5 m) losses with Rest-of-World gains (+ USD 38.6 m), but creates a new concentration risk: a USD 369 m un-allocated gap, a 90.9% energy share, and a market HHI of 0.258 dominated by the United States. Capacity sweeps show that only with ~ 40–50% additional market headroom do Attainability reach 1.0 and HHI fall to 0.206. We conclude that T&T’s principal vulnerability is a market-capacity bottleneck; effective CBAM adjustment requires both targeted decarbonisation of low-SPI products and diversified headroom for non-EU/UK exports.

This study uses field data to compare diesel and battery electric intercity bus performance on the Benque ViejoBelize City corridor in Belize. The matched observational sample included one diesel bus and two battery electric buses. Performance was evaluated using directly measured fuel and battery energy converted to MJ/100 km, with checks for common calendar dates, operating conditions, kinematics, grid adjusted operating emissions, source energy, and weather. Across the matched corridor, weighted mean direct energy intensity was 1716.7 MJ/100 km for diesel service and 344.5 MJ/100 km for electric service, equivalent to a 79.9% reduction in direct vehicle energy demand. The result remained stable across 115 dates on which both technologies were observed. Under the main Belize average grid scenario, operating CO2 intensity for the matched electric corridor was 324.4 g/km, compared with 1285.1 g/km for diesel tailpipe CO2. The findings provide corridor specific evidence that battery electric intercity buses can deliver large direct energy and operating emissions reductions under the observed Belize conditions, while wider claims about national scale up, operating sufficiency, cost, and life cycle emissions require larger samples and additional system data.

The transition to sustainable transportation is a critical challenge for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which face unique constraints related to energy resources, high fuel costs, and climate change vulnerability. While battery electric buses (BEBs) are increasingly seen as a viable solution, research comparing their operational and economic performance with diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) buses in SIDS remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by employing a novel methodology that integrates real-world telematics data from a pilot fleet of diesel and CNG buses with a comprehensive cost–benefit analysis (CBA) in a Caribbean SIDS. The analysis reveals that approximately 80

This study introduces a comprehensive analysis of offshore wind resource potential in Trinidad and Tobago, leveraging both the Wind Atlas Methodology (WAM) and the numerical wind atlas methodologies to address the region’s sparse wind measurement data. Utilizing atmospheric re-analysis data, specifically the ERA5 dataset, in conjunction with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a generalized wind climates (GWCs) for Trinidad and Tobago was generated. These GWCs, refined with topographical and roughness data, guide the siting of offshore wind farms within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), considering water depths and proximate onshore terrain influences. The study quantifies the economic feasibility of offshore wind through both a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) analysis and by evaluating the value of redirected natural gas to the petrochemical industry. The LCOE, though currently higher than subsidized domestic electricity rates, is projected to decrease significantly by 2035. Notably, the value of displaced natural gas for petrochemical production offers substantial economic benefits, with potential payback periods for offshore wind investments well under a decade when considering 2021 methanol and ammonia prices. These findings underscore the strategic significance of offshore wind in Trinidad and Tobago’s energy mix. By transitioning to renewable energy sources, the nation can mitigate reliance on fossil fuels for power generation while optimizing natural gas usage in high-value sectors.

Renewable energy solutions are vital for sustainable development, particularly in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) facing challenges related to fossil fuel dependence. This study examines the design, installation, and performance evaluation of an off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) system. The system is located in a remote, forested region of Trinidad, providing electricity for wildlife rehabilitation efforts in a facility lacking conventional grid access. The research analyzes empirical data on system performance under humid tropical conditions, addressing practical challenges and highlighting the importance of accurate solar resource assessments for such environments. Financial analysis includes a detailed cost breakdown and calculation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), providing insights into the economic feasibility of off-grid solar solutions. Results indicate significant discrepancies between simulated and actual performance, underscoring factors such as lower-than-anticipated solar irradiance and the impact of a constant nighttime energy load on battery cycling. Recommendations are provided to optimize future off-grid PV installations for similar applications in Trinidad and Tobago and the broader CARICOM region.

This study investigates the impact of integrating 10,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) into the electrical grid of Trinidad and Tobago through three charging scenarios: non-incentivized charging, charging at work, and a Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) program. The results reveal that non-incentivized charging exacerbates peak demand and grid strain, while workplace charging provides only modest peak demand mitigation. In contrast, the V2G scenario significantly reduces peak load impacts and enhances grid stability by leveraging BEVs as dynamic energy storage units that contribute to grid services during high-demand periods. The study proposes a V2G tariff scheme that includes compensation for battery degradation, aiming to incentivize participation and offset potential costs. Economic analysis shows that while V2G involves higher per-MWh costs than conventional storage technologies, it avoids the need for substantial capital investment in static energy infrastructure, presenting a cost-effective solution for energy management in island nations. The findings highlight the potential of V2G technology to facilitate sustainable energy transitions, emphasizing its role in enhancing grid resilience, optimizing renewable energy usage, and reducing carbon emissions. This research underscores the transformative potential of V2G systems as critical enablers of sustainable energy strategies in regions facing similar challenges to Trinidad and Tobago.

the key goal of this article is on the design and optimum sliding mode control for Grid-Connected direct drive extraction method of ocean wave energy by Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO). A Linear Permanent Magnet Generator simulates the ocean wave energy extraction system, driven by an Archimedes Wave Swing. Uncontrolled three-phase rectifiers, a three-level buck-boost converter and 3 level neutral point clamped inverter are planned grid integration of Wave Energy Conversion device. The technique monitors the three-level buck-boost converter service cycle linked to the PMLG output terminals and decides the optimum switching sequence of 3 level neutral point clamped inverter to enable the grid relation. Simulations using Matlab/Simulink were carried out to test working of the wave energy converter after the suggested optimal control method was applied under various operating settings. Various simulation test results indicate that the proposed optimum control system is tested in both normal and irregular ocean waves. And it has been shown that the control method of the MOPSO sliding mode is ideal for maximizing energy transfer efficiency. Better voltage management at the DC-link and for achieving greater controllability spectrum was accomplished by the proposed Duty-ratio optimal control system.

Because of the growing nonlinear and complexity nature of microgrid systems for example battery energy storage systems, wind-turbine fuel cell, photovoltaic, and micro hydro power plants (BESSs/FC/WT/PV/ Micro Hydro), load-frequency management has been a difficulty. The development of a load-frequency controller based on Proportional–Integral–Derivative (PID) for an autonomous microgrid (MG) with hydro, wind, and PV RES is shown in this article. The suggested LFC goal is to retain the frequency of the micro hydro power plant under variable load situations by controlling the sharing of output power constant generator between the dummy loads and consumer. Using an adaptive fuzzy logic controller to govern nearly the generating unit`s whole operation, the suggested control technique optimally chooses PID settings for each load value. The suggested fuzzy logic-based controller regulates the plant's frequency output despite fluctuating user loads and manages energy distribution by separating the micro network into separate departures connected in priority order. The suggested frequency controller uses a centralised LFC approach centred on a combination of smart load and Battery Energy Storage System to manage the MG frequency (BESS). It regulates MG frequency by providing active power balancing for a variety of events that such systems face in real-world settings, such as energy surplus generation and energy shortage. In Simulink/MATLAB, the suggested structure is simulated. The simulation results clearly demonstrate the proposed frequency controller's ability to dump extra power when the customer load varies while maintaining a consistent supply frequency.

The goal of this article is to create an intelligent energy management system that will control the stand-alone microgrid and power flow of a grid associated that includes Battery Energy Storage System, Fuel Cell, Wind Turbine, Diesel Generator, Photovoltaic, and a Hydro Power Plant. Storage systems are required for high dependability, while control systems are required for the system's optimum and steady functioning. The control, operation, and planning of both energy demand and production are all part of energy management. By controlling unpredictable power and providing an appropriate control algorithm for the entire system, the suggested energy management strategy is designed to handle diverse variations in power demand and supply. Under the TOU Tariff, the problem is presented as a discrete time multi-objective optimization method to minimize grid imported energy costs. It also maximizes earnings from surplus RE sales to the grid at a pre-determined RE feed-in tariff. Simulations were run using SIMULINK/MATLAB to validate and evaluate the suggested energy management approach under various power demand and power supply scenarios. The simulations indicate that the proposed energy management can fulfill demand at all times utilizing unreliable renewables like wind, solar, and hydroelectric power plants, as well as hydrogen fuel cells and batteries, without affecting load supply or power quality.

Micro Hydro Power Plants are a type of power production that uses the force of river flows or waterfalls to generate electricity. The generator generates current waves and harmonic voltage, which are distorted wave disturbances that cause fundamental frequency multiplication. The major goal of this work is to design a reliable, efficient, and innovative harmonic mitigation approach for a stand-alone micro hydroelectric system that is coordinated with a photovoltaic renewable energy system utilising an active power filter. We may pick the active filter highest harmonic to be suppressed using the magnitude information supplied for each harmonic component. A hybrid filtering approach to remove harmonics and a novel MOGA optimization technique are part of the suggested harmonics reduction solution. The goal of this article is to determine the optimum filter for decreasing harmonics in an induction generator. As the harmonic damper, two filters were chosen: a passive filter and an active power filter. The suggested MOGA control method is compared to GA and evaluated on simulated data. In tracking harmonic components and fundamental frequency, the suggested MOGA control system provides high convergence speed and accuracy. It's extremely adaptable, and it can predict changes in the phase angle, amplitude, and fundamental frequency of harmonic components. When compared to the Genetic Algorithm method, it performs better. Simulation results using the SIMULINK/MATLAB simulation tool are delivered to evaluate the efficacy of the suggested active filter system. The impact of harmonic currents on the magnetic flux density is investigated using the rated condition as a reference. It has been established that the time harmonic is a significant element influencing generator performance. At the same time, the impacts of harmonic currents on the generator's eddy current loss, average torque, and torque ripple are investigated, as well as the mechanism of eddy current loss fluctuation.

This article offers a clear and realistic design for an active power filter to increase reliability and power quality of the photovoltaic charging system and a high-penetration electric vehicle distribution system. The MOPSO algorithm is used as the basis for problems with optimization and filter tuning. A typical regular load curve is used to model the warped power grid over a 24-hour cycle to estimate the total harmonic distortion (THD). For structures with high penetration of electric cars, the probability of minimizing THD (for example to five percent) is explored via optimum capacity active shunt filters and shunt capacitors. To maximize general performance of the charging system, the switching systems are re-scheduled. Moreover, to increase the current control accuracy of shunt active filter, the fuzzy logic controller is utilized. The major drawback to new system is that it would have unrestricted billing for entire day to cope with voltage interruption. In MATLAB / SIMULINK, detailed machine setup and control algorithm experiments are simulated. The simulation findings confirm the efficiency and viability of projected shunt active filter to enhance voltage profile and track power performance of photovoltaic charging system.

A theoretical study of blood flow, under the influence of a body force, in a capillary is presented. Blood is modeled as a two-phase fluid consisting of a core region of suspension of all erythrocytes, represented by a micropolar fluid and a plasma layer free from cells modeled as a Newtonian fluid. The capillary is modeled as a porous tube consisting of a thin transition Brinkman layer overlying a porous Darcy region. Analytical expressions for the pressure, microrotation, and velocities for the different regions are given. Plots of pressure, microrotation, and velocities for varying micropolar parameters, hydraulic resistivity, and Newtonian fluid layer thickness are presented. The overall system was found to be sensitive to variations in micropolar coupling number. It was also discovered that high values of hydraulic resistivity result in an overall slower velocity of the micropolar and Newtonian fluid.