The 5-yr (2024-28) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS) project aims to accelerate research on environmental forecasting and services in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. As climate change intensifies, rapid transformations in the polar regions have complex impacts on local and global socioecological systems, exacerbating existing challenges for residents and operators. PCAPS focuses on enhancing forecast actionability, impact, and fidelity through a multifaceted approach of user engagement, model and service improvements, and impact studies. Key outcomes will include support for improved predictions of small-scale processes, enhanced understanding of observing systems and the utility of artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ ML) applications, contributions toward the development of a tiered surface observing network, and strengthened cooperation between users, operational centers, and researchers. PCAPS explores approaches to improve forecasts for sea ice, surface wind, visibility, and other key variables, which are essential for developing salient forecasting services that can enhance operational and environmental safety in extreme polar environments. Through collaborations between social and physical scientists, PCAPS also assesses decision-making, risk perceptions, and interactions between forecasters, service providers, and users, including Indigenous communities, and considers political, legal, and economic implications of information delivery. PCAPS is expected to inform WMO's contribution to the fifth International Polar Year (2032-33), support WMO Strategic Objectives, and build upon previous initiatives such as the Polar Prediction Project. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The purpose of the research is to further explore the opportunities and challenges to improve the accuracy, reliability, and usefulness of environmental forecasting services and products in the polar regions using a collaboration between social and physical researchers, operational centers, and users of these polar services.

Inviolate areas represent a physical and conceptual manifestation of an approach to conservation based on protecting nature from people. Debates over inviolate areas in Antarctica offer useful insights into the values that underpin conservation in the Anthropocene. Antarctica is governed by an international treaty system that declares the continent to be a 'natural reserve, devoted to peace and science' and which requires consensus decision-making among a wide range of cultural and political views. Drawing on Antarctic governance and conservation scholarship, as well as the wider geographical and humanities literature, this article examines the contested interpretations and framings of inviolate areas in Antarctica. Starting with international debates over 'Prohibited Zones' in Belgium's 2023 proposal for a new protected area, we trace historical and contemporary perspectives on inviolate areas in the Antarctic. We then propose four frames through which stakeholders might engage inviolate areas, each of which reflects a set of assumptions and values about how Antarctic conservation should be approached, ranging from increasing human presence to re-imagining the region as an autonomous, rights-bearing entity. We offer these frames as a heuristic device for those seeking new ways of navigating disagreement and achieving better conservation outcomes in Antarctica and beyond.

Human activity in the Antarctic is supported by a wide network of government agencies, policies, businesses and workers back home. This polar workforce is particularly important in the so-called 'Antarctic gateway cities', which foreground their economic and cultural connections with the far south. Rather than focusing just on the Antarctic continent as the place of work, this paper therefore takes a broader approach by turning attention to the people back home that enable Antarctic logistics, modelling, policymaking and public awareness to be executed successfully. The paper outlines a matrix for mapping polar work capacity, with Antarctic roles classified as direct or indirect and as in situ or ex situ. By bringing together stakeholders from a range of Antarctic workplaces (including local and national government, academia, tourism and local business owners and training providers) from Christchurch (New Zealand) in October 2024, a workshop event identified the key challenges facing the Antarctic sector over the coming 5 years and highlighted areas where international collaboration could help to address these challenges into the future. Key suggestions include the implementation of an overarching Antarctic strategy; training and education to improve local talent and pathways; enhanced visibility of existing skillsets; establishing exchange opportunities across the Antarctic gateway cities; and developing Antarctic identities, including through tourism opportunities.

Drawing on heritage ecologies, this article proposes a role for the environmental humanities in formalizing a shift from predominantly historical to increasingly futures-focused heritage, reflecting the planetary shift from the Holocene to the early Anthropocene. Its geographic focus is Antarctica, a region formally dedicated to peace and science and governed through the Antarctic Treaty System. Historic Sites and Monuments (HSMs) in the Antarctic are designated to commemorate events ranging from late nineteenth century exploration to contemporary scientific endeavors. Some are tourist destinations, many are almost inaccessible, and others have disappeared under ice. One is yet to be located. As an assemblage, the HSMs appear a little unruly, entangled with geopolitics and ambiguous in purpose. Heritage ecologies suggest that natural processes should not be separated from cultural contexts and include relations between human and more-than-human. More nuanced, potentially disruptive interpretations of Antarctic heritage should extend to new sites that both recognize the peace and science principles of the Antarctic Treaty and highlight the Anthropocene's precarities. This article is thus a provocation within the environmental humanities to rethink heritage practices with respect to nonhuman nature and the Anthropocene and to consider monuments for the end (geographically at least) of the world.

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), an international research initiative organized by the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) World Weather Research Program from 2013 to 2022, aimed to markedly enhance environmental prediction capabilities in the polar regions and beyond, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing climate. YOPP achieved this through a concerted effort in observation, modeling, verification, user engagement, and educational activities. This article offers a comprehensive overview of YOPP's key outcomes and impacts, using a dual approach that merges qualitative success stories with quantitative metrics. Scientifically, the focus is on the role of polar observations in improving prediction accuracy, enhanced understanding of processes to support model development, advancements in forecast verification, particularly in sea ice prediction, an improved understanding of the interconnections between polar and midlatitude regions, and effective user engagement. This paper also discusses how these scientific discoveries have been converted into practical applications, emphasizing the route from science to services. Additionally, it summarizes the education, communication, outreach, and coordination efforts employed to maximize YOPP's impact. Finally, the article provides a series of recommendations for future research, informed by the insights gained from YOPP's experiences and recent radical developments in technology. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was a landmark initiative aimed at enhancing our ability to predict environmental changes in the polar regions, areas that are increasingly affected by climate change. By integrating global efforts in observation, modeling, and data analysis, YOPP has significantly contributed to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts in these critical zones, and beyond. These advancements matter because they provide crucial insights into polar processes along with their remote impacts, enhance global prediction models, and inform stakeholders about predictive capabilities. The project's focus on user engagement and education ensures that these scientific achievements translate into practical benefits. The collaborative spirit of YOPP exemplifies how international scientific cooperation can address some of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time.

Drawing on heritage ecologies, this article proposes a role for the environmental humanities in formalizing a shift from predominantly historical to increasingly futures-focused heritage, reflecting the planetary shift from the Holocene to the early Anthropocene. Its geographic focus is Antarctica, a region formally dedicated to peace and science and governed through the Antarctic Treaty System. Historic Sites and Monuments (HSMs) in the Antarctic are designated to commemorate events ranging from late nineteenth century exploration to contemporary scientific endeavors. Some are tourist destinations, many are almost inaccessible, and others have disappeared under ice. One is yet to be located. As an assemblage, the HSMs appear a little unruly, entangled with geopolitics and ambiguous in purpose. Heritage ecologies suggest that natural processes should not be separated from cultural contexts and include relations between human and more-than-human. More nuanced, potentially disruptive interpretations of Antarctic heritage should extend to new sites that both recognize the peace and science principles of the Antarctic Treaty and highlight the Anthropocene’s precarities. This article is thus a provocation within the environmental humanities to rethink heritage practices with respect to nonhuman nature and the Anthropocene and to consider monuments for the end (geographically at least) of the world.

The Polar Prediction Project (PPP), one of the flagship programs of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), has come to an end after a decade of intensive and coordinated international observing, modeling, verification, user engagement, and education activities. While PPP facilitated many advancements in modeling and forecasting, critical investment is now required to turn prediction science into salient environmental services for the polar regions. In this commentary, the members of the Societal and Economic Research and Applications task team of PPP, a group of social scientists and service delivery specialists, identify a number of insights and lessons that are critical for the implementation of the follow-up program Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS). We argue that in order to raise the societal value of polar environmental services, we need to better understand the diversity of highly specific user contexts; to tailor the actionability of weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) service development in the polar regions through inclusive transdisciplinary approaches to coproduction; to assess the societal impact of improved environmental services in the polar regions; and to invest and provide dedicated funding for involving the social sciences in research and tailoring processes across all the polar regions.

Agreements reached at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCMs) are among the primary means for addressing Antarctic conservation and environmental protection issues. However, according to contemporary scholars, Antarctic Treaty decision-making is becoming increasingly unresponsive to the rising environmental challenges in the region. We assessed the performance of Antarctic Treaty decision-making by measuring the rate and diversity of decision-making over the last 6 decades. To measure the rate, we counted the number of inputs and outputs of ATCMs and calculated the time taken for legally binding outputs to enter into force. To measure diversity, we calculated the range of topics addressed by the inputs and outputs of ATCMs. The average number of agreements reached per ATCM increased from 1961 to 2022. Although the diversity of Antarctic topics discussed at ATCMs remained consistently high, the diversity of topics on which legally binding agreements were adopted declined significantly. Antarctic issues-including those of highest priority-are now almost entirely dealt with through nonbinding, soft-law agreements. It is plausible that this move away from binding decisions reflects a dynamic governance institution evolving to respond to new pressures. However, we suggest that the change reveals a concerning shift in decision-making behavior and performance, unique to the treaty's history. Soft law is beneficial in some cases, but its overuse diminishes accountability and transparency, significantly reducing the parties' abilities to understand and measure their performance, including the outcomes and impacts of decisions. Although the rate and diversity of ATCM inputs and outputs provide only a partial view of decision-making performance, the exploration of these metrics provides a foundation for asking essential questions about the impacts of Antarctic Treaty governance on the region's environmental protection and conservation.

This paper explores how the COVID-19 pandemic affected science and tourism activities and their governance in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. The pandemic reduced the ability of Antarctic Treaty Parties to make decisions on policy issues and placed a considerable burden on researchers. Tourism was effectively suspended during the 2020–2021 Antarctic season and heavily reduced in 2021–2022 but rebounded to record levels in 2022–2023. The pandemic stimulated reflection on practices to facilitate dialog, especially through online events. Opportunities arose to integrate innovations developed during the pandemic more permanently into Antarctic practices, in relation to open science, reducing operational greenhouse gas footprints and barriers of access to Antarctic research and facilitating data sharing. However, as well as the long-term impacts arising directly from the pandemic, an assemblage of major geopolitical drivers are also in play and, combined, these signal a considerable weakening of Antarctic exceptionalism in the early Anthropocene.

The polar regions are facing a wide range of compounding challenges, from climate change to increased human activity. Infrastructure, rescue services, and disaster response capabilities are limited in these remote environments. Relevant and usable weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) information is vital for safety, activity success, adaptation, and environmental protection. This has been a key focus for the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Polar Prediction Project (PPP), and in particular its "Societal and Economic Research and Applications" (PPP-SERA) Task Team, which together over a decade have sought to understand polar WWIC information use in relation to operational needs, constraints, and decision contexts to inform the development of relevant services. To understand research progress and gaps on WWIC information use during the PPP (2013-23), we undertook a systematic bibliometric review of aligned scholarly peer-reviewed journal articles (n 5 43), examining collaborations, topics, methods, and regional differences. Themes to emerge included activity and context, human factors, information needs, situational awareness, experience, local and Indigenous knowledge, and sharing of information. We observed an uneven representation of disciplinary backgrounds, geographic locations, research topics, and sectoral foci. Our review signifies an overall lack of Antarctic WWIC services research and a dominant focus on Arctic sea ice operations and risks. We noted with concern a mismatch between user needs and services provided. Our findings can help to improve WWIC services' dissemination, communication effectiveness, and actionable knowledge provision for users and guide future research as the critical need for salient weather services across the polar regions remains beyond the PPP.

Multilateral environmental governance regimes like the Antarctic Treaty System are pivotal in addressing today's wicked transboundary socio-ecological problems and central to their success is the facilitation of constructive knowledge exchange (KE) between research and policymaking communities. Consequently, the literature is now ripe with studies that aim to uncover the elements that enable or hinder KE successes across diverse environmental governance settings. Yet, in the Antarctic context, the KE practices that comprise Antarctic science-policy interfaces remain empirically under examined. Here we contribute by exploring the perspectives of 31 Antarctic practitioners to develop our understandings of successful KE practices in the policy contexts of the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings and the Committee for Environmental Protection. By adopting a reflexive thematic analysis, we identify 11 enablers and 9 barriers to KE success that are overlapping, interconnected and complex. According to practitioners, in the face of pervasive barriers, such as the often overshadowing effect of politics, a deficiency of KE incentives and large-scale wicked policy problems, certain Antarctic institutions and practitioners portray strong boundary spanning expertise, which despite the many challenges identified, serves to facilitate KE in support of evidence-informed decision-making. However, the extent to which boundary spanners are influential in their leadership varies, and while acknowledging that influential leadership is an important enabler for success, we raise several questions regarding the potentially unexplored assumptions that underpin current KE practices. As Antarctic practitioners share a desire to foster inclusive, iterative and multidirectional science-policy dialogues among other identified improvements, we suggest that harnessing reflexivity and humility within these processes will be critically important for ensuring that existing asymmetries or inequities are not reinforced under the guise of improved ways of working.

Antarctic environmental change is accelerating with significant regional and global consequences making it critically important for Antarctic research knowledge to inform relevant policymaking forums. A key challenge is maximising the utility of evidence in decision-making, to which scholars have responded by shifting away from linear science-policy arrangements towards co-production alternatives. As an Antarctic Treaty Consultative Party (ATCP), New Zealand (NZ) is responsible for facilitating knowledge exchange (KE) among Antarctic science and policy actors at national and international levels. However, at present, we have few metrics for assessing the success of science-policy dialogues. Furthermore, studies on the Antarctic science-policy interface have so far primarily focused on the international perspective. This paper is the first to examine domestic stakeholder perspectives regarding Antarctic KE using NZ as a case study. We report on the findings of two workshops involving over 60 NZ Antarctic stakeholders in 2021 that aimed to explore the various elements of NZ's Antarctic science-policy interface and identify barriers or drivers for success, including future opportunities. Our results indicate that there is a desire to shift away from the current linear approach towards a more collaborative model. To achieve this, stakeholders share an understanding that KE practices need to become more equitable, inclusive and diverse, and that the policy community needs to play a more proactive and leading role. Described as a 'fuzzy beast', the NZ Antarctic science-policy interface is complex. This study contributes to our understanding of Antarctic KE practices by offering new guidance on several key elements that should be considered in any attempts to understand or improve future KE practices in NZ or within the domestic settings of other ATCPs interested in fostering science-policy success.

Over the last couple of decades, polar tourism has significantly grown in the number of visitors and diversified in terms of the tourism activities offered. The COVID-19 pandemic brought polar tourism to a halt and has prompted researchers, operators and policy-makers alike to reflect on how Arctic and Antarctic tourism have developed, how they are being managed and governed and, importantly, how tourism operators influence polar socio-ecological systems. Given the dominance of ship-based tourism over other types of tourism in the Polar Regions, we discuss the cornerstones of how polar ship-based tourism has developed over the last 50 years and explore the relevant international and regional governance regimes in this article. We identify which positive and negative biophysical, socio-cultural and economic impacts arising from polar tourism have been identified by researchers. It is difficult, if not impossible, to disentangle impacts caused by tourism alone from those that result from the interactions of multiple pressures at all levels (local, regional and global), and more research is needed to develop reliable and effective indicators to monitor tourism impacts. In addition, a better understanding is needed about the role tourist experiences might play in potentially encouraging long-term positive behavioural changes among visitors to the Polar Regions. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an important opportunity to review polar tourism development and management, and to ask whether an emphasis should be placed on ‘degrowth’ of the sector in the future.

This chapter describes a comparative approach across the Polar Regions. It illustrates how polar tourism research has matured, how polar tourism researchers engage with questions of global relevance to the study of tourism, and identifies trajectories of research in the study of polar tourism. A number of the books resulted from specific conferences on polar tourism, or have been based on the particular interests of the editors, and therefore can be regarded as thematic collections on topics such as global change, cruise ship tourism and regional development. A dedicated edition of The Polar Journal edited by D. Liggett and E. J. Stewart brings together a collection of papers arising from a polar tourism conference on polar gateways. Carefully positioned to showcase the emerging range of empirically-based polar tourism research during the International Polar Year, a special issue of the journal Tourism in Marine Environments on Polar Tourism was published by editors P. T. Maher and E. J. Stewart.

Over the last couple of decades, polar tourism has significantly grown in the number of visitors and diversified in terms of the tourism activities offered. The COVID-19 pandemic brought polar tourism to a halt and has prompted researchers, operators and policy-makers alike to reflect on how Arctic and Antarctic tourism have developed, how they are being managed and governed and, importantly, how tourism operators influence polar socio-ecological systems. Given the dominance of ship-based tourism over other types of tourism in the Polar Regions, we discuss the cornerstones of how polar ship-based tourism has developed over the last 50 years and explore the relevant international and regional governance regimes in this article. We identify which positive and negative biophysical, socio-cultural and economic impacts arising from polar tourism have been identified by researchers. It is difficult, if not impossible, to disentangle impacts caused by tourism alone from those that result from the interactions of multiple pressures at all levels (local, regional and global), and more research is needed to develop reliable and effective indicators to monitor tourism impacts. In addition, a better understanding is needed about the role tourist experiences might play in potentially encouraging long-term positive behavioural changes among visitors to the Polar Regions. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an important opportunity to review polar tourism development and management, and to ask whether an emphasis should be placed on ‘ degrowth ’ of the sector in the future.