Virtual machine emulation environments provide ideal testbeds for cybersecurity evaluations because they run real software binaries in a scalable, offline test setting that is suitable for assessing the impacts of software security flaws on the system. Verification of such emulations determines whether the environment is working as intended. Verification can focus on various aspects such as timing realism, traffic realism, and resource realism. In this paper, we study resource realism and issues associated with virtual machine resource utilization. We examine telemetry metrics gathered from a series of structured experiments which involve large numbers of parallel emulations meant to oversubscribe resources at some point. We present an approach to use telemetry metrics for emulation verification, and we demonstrate this approach on two cyber scenarios. Descriptions of the experimental configurations are provided along with a detailed discussion of statistical tests used to compare telemetry metrics. Results demonstrate the potential for a structured experimental framework, combined with statistical analysis of telemetry metrics, to support emulation verification. We conclude with comments on generalizability and potential future work.

This report summarizes the activities performed as part of the Science and Engineering of Cybersecurity by Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) Grand Challenge LDRD project. We provide an overview of the research done in this project, including work on cyber emulation, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. We present examples of integrated analyses performed on two case studies: a network scanning/detection study and a malware command and control study. We highlight the importance of experimental workflows and list references of papers and presentations developed under this project. We outline lessons learned and suggestions for future work.

In this paper we report preliminary results from the novel coupling of cyber-physical emulation and interdiction optimization to better understand the impact of a CrashOverride malware attack on a notional electric system. We conduct cyber experiments where CrashOverride issues commands to remote terminal units (RTUs) that are controlling substations within a power control area. We identify worst-case loss of load outcomes with cyber interdiction optimization; the proposed approach is a bilevel formulation that incorporates RTU mappings to controllable loads, transmission lines, and generators in the upper-level (attacker model), and a DC optimal power flow (DCOPF) in the lower-level (defender model). Overall, our preliminary results indicate that the interdiction optimization can guide the design of experiments instead of performing a “full factorial” approach. Likewise, for systems where there are important dependencies between SCADA/ICS controls and power grid operations, the cyber-physical emulations should drive improved parameterization and surrogate models that are applied in scalable optimization techniques.