Governments increasingly launch transformative policy missions to address complex societal challenges such as climate change. While the literature on mission-oriented innovation policy highlights the role of stakeholder contestation and emphasizes the need to promote alignment, it often overlooks the nature of underlying disagreements. This paper distinguishes between factual and normative disagreement across problems, solutions, and interventions, and applies Q methodology to identify and analyze four distinct stakeholder narratives in the mission to decarbonize Swedish industry. The narratives reveal different varieties of disagreement, ranging from factual concerns about technological feasibility and policy effectiveness to normative critiques of directionality and legitimacy. Our findings demonstrate that missions involve not only alignment, but also disjointment - persistent divergences of opinion rooted in fundamentally conflicting values and beliefs. Recognizing disjointment underscores the need for missionoriented policymaking to balance efforts to foster alignment with strategies that address enduring conflict through mediation, recognition, redistribution, and compensation.

Governments increasingly deploy transformative policy missions to accelerate industrial decarbonisation, combining ambitious climate targets with large-scale funding and coordination. Yet the roles of incumbent firms responsible for most current emissions remain underexplored in both research and policy design. This paper investigates how Sweden's 20 largest industrial emitters respond to the country's legally binding net-zero by 2045 target, focusing on their participation in the Industry Leap and Climate Leap programmes. Using a mixedmethods approach that integrates emissions statistics, project-level funding data, and social network analysis, we analyse firms' emissions profiles, decarbonisation ambitions, mitigation pathways, scope of action, collaborations, and engagement with mission-oriented policy instruments. We find that declared ambition levels are a poor indicator of active engagement, as several firms with very ambitious targets show limited participation, while medium-ambition actors emerge as central project participants. Our analysis identifies four strategic roles, transformative frontrunners, system enablers, adaptive followers, and peripheral bystanders, that capture the diversity of incumbents' responses. These findings move beyond binary leader-laggard framings and highlight the need for policy instruments that reward concrete engagement, foster collaborative infrastructures, and tailor support to heterogeneous roles in order to align incumbent behaviour with long-term mission objectives.

Abstract This paper presents a conceptual framework for analysing transformative policy missions and guiding policy design. The framework decomposes the mission scope into transformative orientation, policy interventions, and system focus, while distinguishing structural and functional outcomes. This analytical structure allows for comparative analysis and evaluation of missions oriented towards challenge-driven transformation of socio-technical systems. The empirical exploration centres on the decarbonization of Swedish industry. The analysis specifically highlights the Industry Leap, which is a major policy programme that departs from the Swedish climate goals and fosters collaborative innovation projects. The identified structural outcomes reveal significant mobilization of incumbent industrial actors to mission-oriented innovation networks. At the functional level, activities within these networks focus on pathways based on carbon capture and hydrogen. However, there is also a notable difference in the level of engagement across sectors, a lack of new entrants, and little experimentation with alternative pathways.

Research into the impact of innovative sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations is crucial to diversifying, scaling up, and accelerating the sustainable energy transition. Although there is vast research into sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations, research literature offers a fragmented collection of findings. A coherent overview of themes and insights regarding the transformative impact of innovative sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations on sustainable energy systems from the past, present, and near future is lacking and necessary to increase experiments and demonstrations' impact on the sustainable energy transition. The research in this study fills this knowledge gap by providing such an overview and yields novel insights into the organized function and impact of experiments and demonstrations. It spans a broad spectrum of sustainable energy technologies, the empirical domains where these are invented, developed and applied, and the stakeholders involved. The overview is the outcome of a Delphi study in which the insights of 47 international scientific research experts in sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations are bundled and explained. This study presents a thematic overview of the significant insights regarding past and current sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations and outlines a research agenda for the future. Policymakers, practitioners, and scientists can leverage this to inform their sustainable energy policies, business strategies, and research programs.

Large-scale electrification of industry and transport is central to the decarbonization of the energy sector. Rapid transformation of the existing electricity system, however, presents significant challenges. Using the Q-methodology, this study examines challenges to the electrification of industry and transport in Sweden from the viewpoints of key stakeholders. We identify three narratives that correspond to meta-challenges to electrification: 1) Procedural deadlocks, hindering the expansion of variable electricity production, 2) Competing political preferences, slowing the progress of electrification, and 3) Poor governance, hindering an effective electrification process. From these, we propose corresponding policy elements: 1) Streamlining the permitting process for electricity generation; 2) Fostering a fair but differentiated low-carbon policy mix; and 3) Recognizing multi-partisan benefits in the energy transition. These findings aim to support policymakers in developing effective decarbonization policies.

The emergence of the hydrogen economy is expected to play a central role in industrial decarbonization, yet little is known about how hydrogen transitions shape labor markets across sectors and regions. This paper examines the formation of hydrogen-related labor markets in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, using job postings as a proxy for recruitment activity. Drawing on socio-technical systems theory and cluster analysis, we identify emerging configurations of actors, competences, and regional specializations. Data was collected from national job portals between August 2023 and September 2024 and analyzed using unsupervised machine learning. Six labor market clusters were identified, showing distinct combinations of recruiting organizations, sectoral focus, and geographical distribution. Engineering jobs—comprising over 40% of the dataset—were also examined in a separate cluster analysis, revealing variation in recruitment needs across technical disciplines and national contexts. Findings suggest that labor market formation is deeply shaped by prior industrial specializations and policy frameworks. Norway’s labor market reflects its offshore energy legacy, dominated by consulting and engineering firms. Denmark shows a capital-concentrated, research-driven pattern, while Sweden’s job creation is led by large incumbents, particularly in energy utilities. The study demonstrates how labor market data can serve as an empirical window into early-stage socio-technical configurations in sustainability transitions. It highlights the potential of combining digital trace data and machine learning to understand regional, sectoral, and competence dynamics in emerging green economies. This approach advances the study of sectoral labor dynamics in energy transitions and offers tools for informing cross-sectoral policy and workforce planning.

This paper examines how emerging employment patterns reflect the early-stage structuring of the hydrogen economy in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. Drawing on socio-technical systems theory and cluster analysis, we analyze 3,055 hydrogen-related job postings collected between August 2023 and September 2024. By applying unsupervised machine learning to categorize region-sector-job role combinations, we identify six distinct employment clusters, and four additional clusters focused specifically on engineering roles. Our findings show that hydrogen-related recruitment activity builds on existing industrial capabilities, regional specializations, and institutional frameworks. Norway's recruitment patterns align with its offshore energy and engineering sectors; Denmark exhibits a capital-concentrated, research-driven configuration; and Sweden's activity is centered on incumbent utilities integrating hydrogen into energy infrastructure. Engineering roles dominate across countries, yet the distribution of technical competencies and actor types varies significantly. This study contributes methodologically to sustainability transitions research by demonstrating how recruitment data can serve as early indicators of evolving socio-technical configurations. We show how cluster analysis can trace emerging employment structures and capture the spatial, sectoral, and competence dimensions of technological change. These insights contribute to the empirical study of sustainability transitions by revealing how national industrial structures, actor configurations, and sectoral linkages shape early labor market dynamics in the hydrogen economy.

Decarbonization of energy-intensive process industries (EPIs) is a central unresolved challenge for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C or well-below 2 degrees C. In this article, we investigate the alignment between government policy and applicable industry strategy in decarbonization efforts across six European countries - Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We distinguish between 'target alignment' (How comparable are the size of the emission reduction commitments?), 'temporal alignment' (How closely do the timelines match?) and 'solution alignment' (Are the same types of solutions prioritized?). Based on an analysis of national policy documents, company strategies of the 10 largest emitting EPI plants in each country, as well as secondary sources, we find high target alignment. However, we find substantially lower temporal alignment as emitters are reluctant to commit to intermediate targets that match the decarbonization timelines laid out in national government policy. Solution alignment is intermediate across all six countries as emitters generally pursue the decarbonization options prioritized in policy, but with most emitters remaining at the level of ambitions or plans and few examples of commercial investments so far. Public policies across the analysed countries mainly prioritize CCUS, hydrogen and electrification as decarbonization solutions.Large emitters formulate ambitions or plans for the prioritized decarbonization options, but actual investment commitment remains limited.Governments should continuously survey alignment of their policy targets and prioritized decarbonization options with industry targets and activities.In particular, intermediate targets set by the largest emitters do not match those of national governments.Additional support and incentives to make industry act sufficient fast are required.

This paper proposes a directionality framework that highlights goal, sector and solution as key dimensions of transformative policy missions. The framework is used to investigate the directionality of process industry decarbonization in Sweden, by analyzing the orientation of projects supported by the major national funding program the ‘Industry Leap’ between 2017 and 2022. The results show that innovation activities (i) mainly aim to reduce fossil emissions rather than produce negative emissions, (ii) focus on the steel and chemicals industries, and (iii) engage mostly with carbon capture, electrification and hydrogen. This indicates that innovation activities are somewhat narrow and imbalanced, which suggests that policymakers should promote broader experimentation. The theoretical and empirical contribution of this paper supports academics, policymakers and other actors in understanding, evaluating and shaping the directionality of transformative policy missions.

The energy-intensive process industries (EPIs) account for a high share of global carbon emissions but have so far been slow to decarbonise. One of the reasons for the slow pace is that central problems and solutions are contested among stakeholders. To develop effective and inclusive transition policy, a better understanding of different perspectives on decarbonisation challenges is needed. In this paper, we use Q methodology to address this gap with an analysis of EPI decarbonisation in Sweden and Norway. The research draws on 50 interviews where different types of stakeholders sorted and reflected upon statements that describe potential decarbonisation challenges. Through factor analysis, we identify four salient narratives in each country, which emphasise different problems and trade-offs. However, we also find similarities across the narratives, both within and across countries. A key challenge that is emphasized in both countries is to ensure a sufficient supply of electricity at competitive prices. Ultimately, we demonstrate how these findings are important for providing policy recommendations.

Policymakers have increasingly voiced an ambition to combine the transition to a climate-neutral society with a "green" domestic industrial agenda. In recent years, innovation systems scholars have advanced the understanding of the evolution of industries around renewable energy technologies as well as the role of policy feedback (and indeed politics) surrounding the development of domestic green industrial development policies. To take a step towards combining these literature streams, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of policy mixes and policy feedback in the emergence of domestic green industries. This is achieved in the empirical case of biofuels in Sweden, and the findings show that policy feedback dynamics created difficulties in aligning the national policy mix with the technology and industrial developments in the country. The resulting political uncertainty predominantly hampered the scaling up of domestic production capacity, while R&D and import of biofuels instead could grow strong. Based on this empirical case, a process model is developed to explain the role of policy feedback in the development of domestic industries, thus demonstrating how the growth of domestic industries is driven by the interplay of policy effects and various feedback processes. The findings suggest that future research into the role of policies in "green" domestic industry growth should devote more attention to the dynamics driving the co-evolution of policy, technology and industry structures.

In the new paradigm of 'transformative' or 'mission-oriented' innovation policy, which addresses broad societal challenges, policy makers are given a large responsibility for setting or shaping the direction of socio-technical transitions. However, the literature has so far not provided much concrete advice on how to achieve directionality in practice. The main argument of this conceptual article is that a more detailed approach is needed to better understand the challenges policy makers might face when they attempt to translate societal goals into more concrete and actionable policy agendas. It identifies and discusses eight analytically derived directionality challenges: handling goal conflicts, defining system boundaries, identifying realistic pathways, formulating strategies, realising destabilisation, mobilising relevant policy domains, identifying target groups, and accessing intervention points. To illustrate these challenges, the article uses examples from the implementation of the Swedish climate goal in the process industry.

This paper analyzes through what enabling mechanisms pilot and demonstration plants (PDPs) reduce supply and demand uncertainties, and thereby contributing to the market formation for novel sustainable technologies. The analysis builds on three case studies within the advanced biofuel development in Europe. For each case, we construct a narrative of the technology development and derive detailed insights into how technology actors use PDPs to drive market formation. We develop a comprehensive analytical framework, which highlights how PDPs contribute to supply uncertainty reduction through three main enabling mechanisms: building credibility for the technology, business ecosystem orchestration, and technology learning. The corresponding enabling mechanisms behind demand uncertainty reduction include technology standardization, constructing the narrative, and the creation of legitimacy for the technology. The paper also unfolds the composite activities of each mechanism, and outlines implications for technology developers, policymakers, as well as for the research community.

The purpose of this paper is to identify key challenges that national policymakers face in trying to translate transformative innovation policy (TIP) theory into policy practice. We focus on the case of the Swedish innovation agency Vinnova’s attempt to translate its TIP-related innovation perspective into the policy practice of the Swedish Innovation Partnership Programme (IPP). By means of a discourse perspective, we identify two key discourses and one institution influencing Vinnova’s translation process. In addition, we describe four key challenges that Vinnova faces in this translation process relating to (i) the involvement of relevant stakeholders, (ii) overcoming a dominant discourse, (iii) time constraints of an institutionalized parliamentary system, and (iv) realizing policy coordination ambitions. This study adds to previous literature in identifying dominant discourses or institutional structures as a key barrier for change. Its contribution is to show how transformative translation challenges are played out in a national-level context.

This paper reviews the emerging literature on “transformative” innovation policy (TIP) in order to (1) identify unique TIP characteristics and the challenges they imply for policymakers throughout the policy cycle and (2) examine the literature's contribution to practical policymaking. We identify five main distinguishing TIP characteristics and analyse the literature's understanding of how they influence the policymaking process. The analysis shows that the literature discusses TIP-related challenges in all stages of the policy cycle but does not provide much guidance on how to address key cross-cutting policymaking challenges such as how to achieve broad stakeholder involvement, evaluate transformative outcomes, and build up dynamic policymaker capabilities. In order for TIP ideas to be implemented in real-life policymaking, TIP scholars, therefore, need to more explicitly consider the practitioners’ perspective and develop concrete models, tools and guidelines that help policymakers address the identified challenges.

Promoting global energy transitions while stimulating domestic industrialization requires national policymaking that shapes technological innovation towards specific outcomes. Although this is inherently difficult, historical case studies may bring a better understanding of innovation dynamics and thereby guide the design of future policy interventions. The purpose of this paper is to review and analyze the emergence of Swedish photovoltaics technology from a policy perspective. Our main aim is to provide a retrospective account of historical developments, but we also derive more general insights about technological innovation and related policy challenges. The paper departs from an adapted analytical framework based on the technological innovation systems approach. Our review identifies four decades of Swedish research that has largely failed to drive domestic commercialization, the rise and fall of an industry that mainly served international markets, and a rapidly growing domestic market based on imported products. This situation is the result of mismatches and fragmentation among key innovation processes, which have not been addressed by strategic policy interventions. We suggest that policymakers should promote a full range of innovation processes and consider making innovation support subject to a payback mechanism that delivers a return on public investments even if industries and markets emerge abroad. Our study also demonstrates how the technological innovation systems approach can be extended to include the function commercialization and emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the directionality of technological innovation processes.

The sustainability transitions literature departs from the idea that grand challenges such as climate change and rising inequality call for far-reaching changes in sociotechnical systems of production and consumption. This implies a dual interest in the directionality of innovation; some directions of change can be perceived as more desirable, while others may be more plausible due to the path dependent nature of sociotechnical change. The specific characteristics of the potential outcomes of directionality have, however, received little attention. Our aim is therefore to unpack and conceptualize the multidimensional space in which sociotechnical systems may adopt different shapes and configurations. We also provide three illustrative empirical examples where directionality has resulted in systems with different technical, social and spatial characteristics. The ideas put forward in this paper can be seen as a contribution to a morphology of sociotechnical systems and thereby support efforts to investigate or promote specific directions of change.

This paper develops a more detailed understanding of when incumbent actors may become the main locomotive driving energy transitions. It also illustrates the trade-offs between policy approaches that actively seek to involve the incumbents in transitions, and policy approaches that pursue transitions without their active involvement. The paper examines state support for the bioeconomy in Sweden and concludes that public investments have been geared towards large-scale, complex and integrated biorefineries that are dependent on the active participation of the forest industry. Incumbents in the forest industry have, however, both lacked motivation and the abilities required to take the necessary steps for commercialisation of the demonstrated concepts. Instead, a rather small investment in a joint venture between actors from the forestry and oil refinery industry in Sweden has spurred learning and revenues; and it has placed an oil refinery at the centre of the future development of what we here term distributed biorefining. The main trade-off is that while this shift has opened up for cross-industrial collaborations and the production of advanced biofuels and materials, it has also paved the way for further investments in existing fossil-fuel infrastructure.

One important requirement for moving towards a decarbonized economy is the redirection and acceleration of technological change towards zero-carbon technologies. To this end, pilot and demonstration plants (PDPs) are key elements, particularly in the so-called formative phase of technological development, which involves high uncertainty in terms of future technology choices and value chains. Even though the literature has established that PDPs help bring new technologies to the market, more detailed insights on how PDPs contribute to market formation are still missing in the literature. Market formation refers to the process of strengthening the factors that influence the development, diffusion, and use of novel technology. The literature supports the proposition that PDPs contribute to market formation for new technologies by reducing different uncertainties. In this paper, we, therefore, investigate the enabling mechanisms through which PDPs reduce uncertainties, thereby contribute to market formation for novel, zero-carbon technologies. By departing from the Strategic Niche Management (SNM) literature, the paper analyzes how PDPs reduce uncertainties with respect to the supply and demand of new sustainable technologies. This is achieved in the empirical context of the development of three advanced biofuel technologies that have been demonstrated on a relatively commercial scale. We employ longitudinal case studies to construct a narrative of the technological developments as well as derive more fine-grained insights into how the respective PDPs have played a role in the various processes of uncertainty reduction. The study reveals that PDPs contribute to supply uncertainty reduction through three enabling mechanisms: building credibility for the technology, technology learning, and business ecosystem orchestration. We also find that PDPs contribute to demand uncertainty reduction through three enabling mechanisms: technology standardization, constructing the narrative, and creation of legitimacy for the new technology.