为应对气候变化和推进绿色低碳发展,中国政府自2010年开始实施低碳城市试点政策,并不断扩大试点范围.准确评估低碳城市建设的政策效果,对于进一步推广这一试点政策具有重要意义.本文利用2003-2016年中国285个城市的面板数据,借助于低碳试点政策在不同城市、不同试点时间上的变异,使用双重差分方法估计了低碳城市建设对碳排放的影响.研究发现,相比于非试点城市,试点城市的碳排放量相对于样本均值降低了约1.05个百分点,意味着低碳城市建设显著降低碳排放水平.同时,低碳城市建设对碳排放的影响存在异质性,碳减排效应在西部城市和低经济发展水平城市的子样本中更加显著.从动态效应上看,低碳城市建设的碳减排效应出现在试点后的第一年到第四年,而在试点后的第五年和第六年消失.机制分析表明,低碳城市建设通过降低电力消费量和提升技术创新水平等途径抑制碳排放量.本文研究为在全国范围内推广低碳城市建设的政策规划提供了经验支持.

基于2005—2013年中国274个地级市的面板数据, 本文分析了本地区税负水平和相邻地区税负水平对本地环境污染的影响.研究结果表明, 本地区税负水平越低, 本地区环境污染水平越高; 相邻地区税负水平越低, 本地区环境污染水平越低.分样本回归表明, 地方政府主要围绕营业税展开税收竞争, 同时环境污染水平较高的地区和中西部地区的税收竞争更加激烈.影响机制分析表明, 税收竞争是地方政府吸引流动性资本的重要手段, 并且弱化了地方政府环境治理的意愿, 但中央环境政策能够在一定程度上削弱地区间的税收竞争行为.因此, 缓解地区间税收竞次行为有利于遏制环境污染, 而健全地方税体系和构建绿色税收体系也是建设美丽中国的重要保障.

近年来中国高铁迅猛发展,对经济、结构、技术等方面产生日益显著的影响,这进一步影响到雾霾污染,因此亟待检验高铁开通的雾霾污染效应.基于2003—2016年中国285个城市的面板数据,本文利用高铁在不同城市、开通时间上的变异,使用渐进性的双重差分方法估计了高铁开通对雾霾污染的影响.研究发现,相比于未开通城市,高铁开通城市的PM2.5地表浓度平均降低1.81％,意味着高铁开通带来了环境红利;从动态效应上看,高铁开通的减霾效应出现在开通后的第一年和第二年.同时,高铁开通对雾霾污染的影响存在异质性,减霾效应在东中部城市、沿海城市、非资源型城市以及高创新水平城市、高人力资本水平城市更加显著.机制分析表明,高铁开通通过规模效应、结构效应和技术效应三条途径影响雾霾污染水平.本文丰富了高铁与雾霾污染的相关文献,从雾霾污染的视角为高铁建设的经济杜会效益评估提供了环境方面的证据.

雾霾治理是重大的民生工程,然而现有文献缺乏关注地方领导人变更对雾霾污染的影响.文章利用2003-2016年中国281个地级城市的面板数据,借助于地方领导人变更这一具有"准自然实验"性质的事件,检验了官员变更对雾霾污染的影响.研究发现,官员变更显著加剧了雾霾污染水平,而这一效应由市长变更所导致,主要发生在东部、中部和资源型城市.同时,官员变更对雾霾污染的影响因官员个体特征而存在差异,在外地官员的子样本中更为显著,并且更年轻、59岁特定年龄的市长有利于缓解官员变更对雾霾污染的加剧作用.进一步,官员变更也显著增加雾霾污染的波动水平,降低环境规制强度与增加固定资产投资是官员变更加剧雾霾污染的两个重要影响因素.文章的结论丰富了官员与污染相关的政治与环境经济学文献,为构建雾霾治理的长效机制提供了有益的政策启示.

Employment is the greatest livelihood. At present, the number of unemployed people and the number of employed people increase simultaneously, so we need to seek effective ways to reduce the unemployment rate in the future. Since the employment situation is directly related to major people’s livelihood and development issues such as public income and social stability, researches on the factors influencing labor employment is growing. The existing literature studies from the perspectives of education, wages, household registration, population structure and so on. However, it pays less attention to the effect of environmental pollution on labor employment and neglects the endogeneity of environmental pollution. More importantly, the answer to this question is conducive to clarifying the employment loss effect of environmental pollution. This provides scientific basis and reference for evaluating the social cost of environmental pollution and designing optimal environmental policies. To address the endogeneity of environmental pollution, this paper uses the exogenous changes of SO2 emission between TCZ（Two Control Zones）cities and non-TCZ cities caused by the policy of the environmental protection accountability system in late 2005. Based on the panel data of 285 cities in China from 2003 to 2013, the study identifies the effect of SO2 emissions on labor employment through employing the instrumental variable method and the difference-in-differences method. The results show that: （1）1% increase in SO2 emissions is associated with a decrease of 0.3345% in labor employment on average; （2）SO2 emissions significantly decrease the labor employment in secondary and tertiary industries, but increase labor employment in primary industry; （3）The inhibition effect of SO2 emissions on employment is more significant in sub samples of high economic development and high human capital; （4）The emission reduction effect of the environmental protection accountability system has the characteristics of cyclical fluctuation”, that is, the short-term effect is obvious, while the long-term effect is disappearing. In terms of the economic cost, the annual employment loss caused by SO2 emissions exceeds 2.5 million people, and the average annual economic loss is about 54 billion Yuan. More importantly, the economic cost is rising year by year. Compared with the existing literature, the marginal contributions of this paper mainly reflect in the following aspects: （1）This paper focuses on and addresses the endogeneity of environmental pollution indicators. In line with the ideas of Chen, et al.（2018）, it uses the exogenous changes of SO2 emission between TCZ cities and non-TCZ cities caused by the policy of the environmental protection accountability system in late 2005. Taking this as a breakthrough point, we further observe the impact of the exogenous changes on labor employment.（2）This paper provides evidence for the effect of environmental pollution on labor employment in developing countries, especially enriches the existing research in China. In general, the existing literature about the effects of environmental pollution on physical health, individual productivity and labor supply mostly focuses on developed countries. Although there are also studies on developing countries, such as Bangladesh, Mexico and Peru, the relevant studies are relatively scarce. Considering the differences in environmental risks and medical conditions among countries, and the fact that 92% of pollution-related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, the empirical conclusions of developed countries are not necessarily suitable for developing countries, which further highlights the need to seek evidence from developing countries.（3）This paper estimates the economic and social cost of environmental pollution, which has strong practical significance. Accurate identification of the social welfare effect of environmental pollution is crucial to the design of the optimal environmental policy. Too high or too low estimation will lead to too strict or too loose environmental policy intensity, which is not conducive to economic development. In view of this, this paper provides new evidence for the cost-benefit assessment of the environmental policy from the perspective of labor employment, and provides reference for the central government to make decisions on the strength of the environmental policy.

利用中国284个城市的面板数据检验地区间环境支出竞争的存在性与形式,并进一步估计环境支出对环境污染的影响.研究发现,地区间环境支出存在显著的模仿型竞争;同时,环境支出不能有效遏制环境污染,并存在污染治理的“搭便车”倾向.这意味着地区间环境支出趋于“低水平”均衡,造成“你低我更低”的囚徒困境,为环境竞次理论提供实证支撑.本文认为,环境支出不足的动因是地区间策略竞争,后果是制约了环境支出的减排效应.

立足效率维度,从“自上而下”、“自下而上”和“上下结合”的三种途径入手,构建广义空间Tobit模型,检验公众诉求、环境规制及其交互对绿色发展效率的影响.研究发现,公众诉求有利于绿色发展效率的提升,凸显“自下而上”的推力作用;环境规制与绿色发展效率之间呈显著的U型曲线关系,显示“自上而下”中成本与收益并存;较高的公众诉求水平能够促使“波特假说”效应更早来临,体现政府与公众“上下结合”的协同优化效应.另外,公众诉求倒逼政府增加环保支出力度和提高环境监管强度,解释了公众诉求的力量机制来源于政府对环境问题的积极关注.

环境规制竞争意味着相邻地区之间的环境规制相互作用和影响,表现为空间上的策略互动,是环境联邦主义理论与地方政府竞争理论相融合的产物.本文从环境规制竞争的理论背景、起源和发展三个方面出发,以分权导致竞争为主线,阐述了环境联邦主义理论,梳理了地方政府竞争理论及具体竞争形式,在此基础上着重分析了环境规制策略性竞争的经验研究,尤其关注了环境规制"逐底竞争"的议题,并总结了代表学者的观点,以期厘清环境规制竞争文献的研究脉络和最新动态.

当前中国的环境规制“非完全执行”现象是环境保护事务面临的核心问题,本文尝试从策略互动角度对其普遍性给出新的解释.中国式分权下环境规制被地方政府视为争夺流动性资源的博弈工具,导致地区间环境规制的策略互动行为,从而孕育了环境规制非完全执行的普遍现象.以此为突破口,本文借助于广义空间自回归模型实证检验了地方政府在环境规制方面的策略互动行为,并进一步探讨了影响地区间环境规制策略互动的因素.研究发现,地区间环境规制存在显著的互补型策略互动,意味着如果竞争地区降低环境规制强度,那么本地区也会相应降低环境规制强度,体现了环境规制非完全执行的传染性,从而较好地解释了环境规制非完全执行的普遍性.同时,2006年后地区间环境规制的互补型策略互动行为有所减弱,凸显了不断强化的环境绩效考核的作用.此外,财政分权与腐败强化了地区间环境规制的策略互动,而公众环保诉求则有效弱化了地区间环境规制的策略互动.

将发展经济学家缪尔达尔开创的“扩散—回流”效应移植到能源经济学领域,运用全局DEA和SBM方向性距离函数测算了环境约束下的能源效率,从静态和动态视角出发,构造空间计量模型,实证检验了地区间能源效率的空间交互效应.研究显示,地区间能源效率存在着显著的空间交互效应,并且表现为空间扩散效应,即相邻地区的能源效率有利于促进本地区的能源效率.此外,一个有趣的发现是,2006年政府节能减排政策是助推能源效率空间扩散效应的有力抓手,带来“额外红利”.因此,要正视区域间能源效率发展差异的事实,能源效率较低的地区应充分利用扩散效应,突破区域间发展的非平衡性,使得能源效率走向“新古典收敛”成为可能.