In the face of unprecedented ecological changes, the conservation community needs strategies to recover species at risk of extinction. On the Island of Maui, we collaborated with species experts and managers to assist with climate-resilient recovery planning for 36 at-risk native plant species by identifying priority areas for the management of recovery populations. To do this, we developed a tailored spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) approach distinguished by its emphasis on transparency, flexibility, and expert (TFE) engagement. Our TFE SCP approach consisted of 2 iterative steps: first, the generation of multiple candidate conservation footprints (i.e., prioritization solutions) with a flexible greedy algorithm that reflects conservation practitioners' priorities and, second, the selection of an optimal conservation footprint based on the consideration of trade-offs in expert-agreed criteria among footprints. This process maximized buy-in by involving conservation practitioners and experts throughout, from setting goals to reviewing optimization data, defining optimization rules, and designating planning units meaningful to practitioners. We minimized the conservation footprint area necessary to meet recovery goals while incorporating species-specific measures of habitat suitability and climate resilience and retaining species-specific information for guiding recovery efforts. Our approach reduced the overall necessary conservation area by 36%, compared with selecting optimal recovery habitats for each species separately, and still identified high-quality habitat for individual species. Compared with prioritizr (an existing SCP tool), our approach identified a conservation area of equal size but with higher quality habitat. By integrating the strengths of existing techniques in a flexible and transparent design, our approach can address natural resource management constraints and provide outputs suitable for local recovery planning, consequently enhancing engagement and buy-in from conservation practitioners and experts. It demonstrates a step forward in making conservation planning more responsive to real-world complexities and helps reduce barriers to implementation for local conservation practitioners.

Metrosideros polymorpha ('ōhi'a, 'ōhi'a lehua) is an important foundation species in Hawaiian forest habitats. The genus originated in New Zealand and was dispersed to the Hawaiian archipelago approximately 3.9 million years ago. It evolved into five distinct endemic species and one of these, Metrosideros polymorpha, further differentiated into eight varieties across what are now the main Hawaiian Islands. 'Ōhi'a is a tree that has great significance in indigenous Hawaiian culture. It is considered a physical manifestation of several principal Hawaiian deities, and serves a broad range of uses in Hawaiian material culture. It occupies a wide diversity of habitats, extending from sea level to over 2,200 m elevation, occupying habitats that range from extremely wet to dry rainfall zones. It is the dominant or co-dominant tree species in wet and mesic forests and is also one of the first woody species to become established on young lava flows. Although 'ōhi'a is a dominant forest tree it also exhibits many characteristics of a pioneer species. 'Ōhi'a provides the matrix for a wide diversity of endemic plants and animals found in these habitats and functions as the primary vegetation cover on native Hawaiian watersheds, facilitating groundwater recharge and regulating surface runoff. 'Ōhi'a has shown remarkable resilience by recolonizing forests that were opened up by disturbance, such as the widespread 'ōhi'a canopy dieback that occurred on East Maui in the 1900s and on the east side of the Island of Hawai'i in the 1970s. Several human-related conditions threaten the continued stability of Hawaii's native ecosystems, including invasive plants, plant diseases, introduced animals, and changing climate. The research and conservation legacy of Dr. Dieter Mueller-Dombois helped to expand our knowledge of the ecology and importance of 'ōhi'a forests, and to increase awareness and appreciation of the remarkable Hawaiian ecosystems that are unique to the world.

The spread of ecosystem modifying invasive plant (EMIP) species is one of the largest threats to native ecosystems in Hawaiʻi. However, differences in niche characteristics between Hawaiʻi’s isolated insular environment and the wider global distribution of these species have not been carefully examined. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to assess similarities and differences in niche characteristics between global and regional scales for 17 EMIPs present in Hawaiʻi. With a clearer understanding of the global context of regional plant invasion, we combined two SDM methods to better understand the potential future regional spread: (1) a nested modeling approach to integrate global and regional invasive species distribution projections; and (2) integrating all available agency and citizen science data to minimize the effect of monitoring gaps and biases. Our results show there are multiple similarities in niche characteristics across regional and global scales for most species, such as similar sets of climatic determinants of distribution, similar responses along environmental gradients, and moderate to high niche overlap between global and regional models. However, some differences were apparent and likely due to several factors including incomplete regional spread, community assembly or diversity effects. Invaders that established earlier showed a higher degree of niche overlap and similar environmental gradient responses when comparing global and regional models. This pattern, coupled with the tendency for regionally-based projections to predict narrower distributions than global projections, indicates a potential for continued spread of several invasive species across the Hawaiian landscape. Our study has broader implications for understanding the distribution and spread of invasive species in other regions, as similar analyses and models, including a novel way to characterize environmental gradient response differences across regions or scales, can likely provide valuable information for conservation and management efforts.

Hawaiian coastal wetlands provide important habitat for federally endangered waterbirds and socio-cultural resources for Native Hawaiians. Currently, Hawaiian coastal wetlands are degraded by development, sedimentation, and invasive species and, thus, require restoration. Little is known about their original structure and function due to the large-scale alteration of the lowland landscape since European contact. Here, we used 1) rapid field assessments of hydrology, vegetation, soils, and birds, 2) a comprehensive analysis of endangered bird habitat value, 3) site spatial characteristics, 4) sea-level rise projections for 2050 and 2100 and wetland migration potential, and 5) preferences of the Native Hawaiian community in a GIS site suitability analysis to prioritize restoration of coastal wetlands on the island of Molokaʻi. The site suitability analysis is the first, to our knowledge, to incorporate community preferences, habitat criteria for endangered waterbirds, and sea-level rise into prioritizing wetland sites for restoration. The rapid assessments showed that groundwater is a ubiquitous water source for coastal wetlands. A groundwater-fed, freshwater herbaceous peatland or “coastal fen” not previously described in Hawaiʻi was found adjacent to the coastline at a site being used to grow taro, a staple crop for Native Hawaiians. In traditional ecological knowledge, such a groundwater-fed, agro-ecological system is referred to as a loʻipūnāwai (spring pond). Overall, 39 plant species were found at the 12 sites; 26 of these were wetland species and 11 were native. Soil texture in the wetlands ranged from loamy sands to silt and silty clays and the mean % organic carbon content was 10.93% ± 12.24 (sd). In total, 79 federally endangered waterbirds, 13 Hawaiian coots (‘alae keʻokeʻo; Fulica alai) and 66 Hawaiian stilts (aeʻo; Himantopus mexicanus knudseni), were counted during the rapid field assessments. The site suitability analysis consistently ranked three sites the highest, Kaupapaloʻi o Kaʻamola, Kakahaiʻa National Wildlife Refuge, and ʻŌhiʻapilo Pond, under three different weighting approaches. Site prioritization represents both an actionable plan for coastal wetland restoration and an alternative protocol for restoration decision-making in places such as Hawaiʻi where no pristine “reference” sites exist for comparison.

Hawaiian coastal wetlands provide important habitat for federally endangered waterbirds and socio-cultural resources for Native Hawaiians. Currently, Hawaiian coastal wetlands are degraded by development, sedimentation, and invasive species and, thus, require restoration. Little is known about their original structure and function due to the large-scale alteration of the lowland landscape since European contact. Here, we used 1) rapid field assessments of hydrology, vegetation, soils, and birds, 2) a comprehensive analysis of endangered bird habitat value, 3) site spatial characteristics, 4) sea-level rise projections for 2050 and 2100 and wetland migration potential, and 5) preferences of the Native Hawaiian community in a GIS site suitability analysis to prioritize restoration of coastal wetlands on the island of Moloka'i. The site suitability analysis is the first, to our knowledge, to incorporate community preferences, habitat criteria for endangered waterbirds, and sea-level rise into prioritizing wetland sites for restoration. The rapid assessments showed that groundwater is a ubiquitous water source for coastal wetlands. A groundwater-fed, freshwater herbaceous peatland or "coastal fen" not previously described in Hawai'i was found adjacent to the coastline at a site being used to grow taro, a staple crop for Native Hawaiians. In traditional ecological knowledge, such a groundwater-fed, agro-ecological system is referred to as a lo'ipunawai (spring pond). Overall, 39 plant species were found at the 12 sites; 26 of these were wetland species and 11 were native. Soil texture in the wetlands ranged from loamy sands to silt and silty clays and the mean % organic carbon content was 10.93% +/- 12.24 (sd). In total, 79 federally endangered waterbirds, 13 Hawaiian coots ('alae ke'oke'o; Fulica alai) and 66 Hawaiian stilts (ae'o; Himantopus mexicanus knudseni), were counted during the rapid field assessments. The site suitability analysis consistently ranked three sites the highest, Kaupapalo'i o Ka'amola, Kakahai'a National Wildlife Refuge, and 'Ohi'apilo Pond, under three different weighting approaches. Site prioritization represents both an actionable plan for coastal wetland restoration and an alternative protocol for restoration decision-making in places such as Hawai'i where no pristine "reference" sites exist for comparison.

First posted August 26, 2022 For additional information, contact: Western Ecological Research CenterU.S. Geological Survey3020 State University Drive EastSacramento, California 95819 Pests and invasive species have been defined as any organism that can have real or perceived adverse effects on operations, or the well-being of personnel, native plants, animals, their environment and ecosystem processes; attack or damage real property, supplies, equipment, or are otherwise undesirable (paraphrased from many sources including 53 Federal Register [FR] 15975, May 4, 1988, as amended at 78 FR 13507, February 28, 2013). Biosecurity programs and pest management plans can be developed and implemented with the goals of preventing the arrival of or eradication or control of pests and invasive species to reduce the potential for adverse effects. Such plans have been developed for Wake Atoll (U.S. Air Force, unpub. data 2017). Periodic plan reviews are an integral step for evaluating plan efficacy and updating plans with new information for improving plan effectiveness. This report summarizes an evaluation of past, current, and potential biosecurity and pest management for Wake with the intent this information can be used for updating existing plans. This document was prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force (USAF) and surveys were performed for the 611th Civil Engineer Squadron Natural Resources Program ACES PROJECT no. YGFZ17002 under agreement number F2MUAA7116GW01 between the USAF and the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Ecological Research Center (USGS-WERC).

Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest to invaded forest). To address this subject, we conducted an integrated ecological and ecohydrological study in tropical forests impacted by invasive plants and animals. We measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest site pairs along moisture and substrate age gradients across Hawaii to explore the effects of invasion on hydrological processes within tropical forests. We also characterized forest composition, structure and soil characteristics at these sites to assess the direct and vegetation-mediated impacts of invasive species on infiltration capacity. Our models show that invasive ungulates negatively affect soil infiltration capacity consistently across the wide moisture and substrate age gradients considered. Additionally, several soil characteristics known to be affected by invasive ungulates were associated with local infiltration rates, indicating that the long-term secondary effects of high ungulate densities in tropical forests may be stronger than effects observed in this study. The effect of invasive plants on infiltration was complex and likely to depend on their physiognomy within existing forest community structure. These results provide clear evidence for managers that invasive ungulate control efforts can improve ecohydrological function of mesic and wet forest systems critical to protecting downstream and nearshore resources and maintaining groundwater recharge.

Questions (a) Have Metrosideros polymorpha trees become re-established in Hawaiian forests previously impacted by canopy dieback in the 1970s? (b) Has canopy dieback expanded since the 1970s? (c) Can spatial patterns from this dieback be correlated with habitat factors to model future dieback in this area? Study Site An 83,603 ha study area on the eastern slopes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea volcanoes on the island of Hawaii, USA. Methods We analyzed very-high-resolution imagery to assess status of Metrosideros polymorpha forests across the eastern side of the island of Hawaii. We generated 1,170 virtual vegetation plots with a 100-m radius; 541 plots in areas mapped in 1977 with trees dead or mostly defoliated (dieback), and 629 plots in adjacent wet forest habitat, previously mapped as non-dieback condition. In each plot we estimated the frequency of M. polymorpha trees that were dead or mostly defoliated, and the frequency of trees with healthy crowns. These results were combined with habitat data to produce a spatial model depicting probability of canopy dieback within the study area. Results Seventy-nine percent of plots mapped in 1977 in dieback condition recovered their canopy and were now considered in non-dieback condition. Ninety-one percent of plots in previous non-dieback areas were found to still have a healthy M. polymorpha canopy in 2015. A spatial model allowed us to identify areas within the study area with high, medium, and low probability of experiencing this same type of canopy dieback in the future. Conclusions Most former dieback areas mapped within the study area in 1977 now show recovery of the tree canopy through growth of new cohorts of young M. polymorpha trees. This suggests these forest communities are resilient to this type of canopy loss and tree death so long as other factors do not disrupt the natural regeneration process.

Hawai'i's most widespread native tree, 'ohi'a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), has been dying across large areas of Hawai'i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid 'Ohi'a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawai'i Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of 'ohi'a. Analyses show this fungal pathogen generally encompassed the core, but not the extremes of the climatic range of 'ohi'a. We further modeled the potential distribution of C. lukuohia across the Hawaiian Archipelago to estimate the risk of ROD to other islands. Given the potential for C. lukuohia to alter the structure of 'ohi'a dominated forests, we used our projected potential distribution of C. lukuohia to assess the risk of ROD to threatened and endangered plant species across Hawai'i. Many native plants are likely vulnerable to these types of large 'ohi'a mortality events: of 234 endangered native plant species considered, 147 (62.8%) have more than half of their range within current and expanding C. lukuohia suitable areas. We also found evidence that protecting habitat by fencing out introduced feral ungulates reduces the prevalence of the disease likely by reducing physical damage caused by these animals to 'ohi'a trees, a precondition for Ceratocystis infection. Given the ongoing spread of C. lukuohia, we developed a dynamic web portal to host our results online, where models and analyses are updated with new lab-confirmed detections to provide managers with a useful tool to help monitor and assess the risk of C. lukuohia as it continues to spread.

'Ohi`a Lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha) is the most abundant tree species in the native wet and mesic forests throughout the main Hawaiian Islands. In the late 1960s and early 1970s large areas on the wet, eastern side of Hawai`i island appeared to have extensive defoliation and death of the 'ohi`a trees. The dieback on Hawai`i island extended to approximately 49,000 ha of which 24,000 ha was considered to be in heavy to severe dieback (>50% of the canopy trees dead or defoliated), and 25,000 ha characterized as having slight to moderate dieback (25-50% of the canopy trees dead or defoliated). Research was initiated in 1976 by a team led by Professor Dieter Mueller-Dombois to assess both extent and ecological characteristics of the forest impacted by canopy dieback relative to areas that did not experience dieback in this same forest zone. To assess the spread or recovery of the 'ohi` a dieback forest over time, twenty-six permanent plots were established across the study area. The results from the monitoring of the 26 permanent plots indicate that many of the original dieback sites are now showing strong recovery of the 'ohi` a tree canopy through recruitment of new seedlings that have now grown into saplings and even taller trees (Boehmer et J Veg Sci 24(4):639-650, 2013). However, it was not clear if these results truly represented the conditions across the entire original dieback area. Therefore, we conducted a much larger survey of response of the 'ohi`a forest to that dieback event, across the entire wet forest region on the eastern side of the island of Hawai`i. We did this by analyzing very high-resolution aerial imagery (<10 cm pixels) taken by Pictometry International (POL), to assess both canopy and understory change throughout this region. The POL imagery proved to be an effective and efficient tool to use for assessing the status of 'ohi`a forest across the eastern Hawai`i Island study area. The results of this large area survey, using the POL imagery, agree closely with the conclusions presented by Boehmer et al. (J Veg Sci 24(4): 639-650, 2013), that most of the 'ohi` a forests on the eastern side of the island of Hawai`i that were affected by canopy dieback in the 1960s and 1970s have started to recover their tree canopy, as a new cohort of young trees are growing back in these sites.

First posted June 5, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director,Pacific Island Ecosystems Research CenterU.S. Geological SurveyHawaii Volcanoes National ParkPO Box 44Hawaii, HI 96718 Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate.The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai'i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai'i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future.We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the "current" (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected "end-of-century" (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

• As a first approximation of such changes, we have modeled potential shifts of terrestrial vegetation across the Hawaiian landscape between now and the end of this century. Our approach relies on modeling the relation between current climate and the distribution of broad, climatically determined moisture zones (for example, dry, mesic, and wet areas) that form the basis of natural landcover classification classes in Hawaiʻi (for example, dry forests, wet forests, mesic shrublands).

Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modeled the relationship between climate and the potential distribution of native biomes across the Hawaiian archipelago to provide a first approximation of potential native biome shifts under end-of-century projected climate. Our correlative model circumvents the lack of data necessary for the parameterization of mechanistic vegetation models in isolated and data-poor islands. We identified locations consistently expected to remain the same in terms of the native biome compatibility by the end of the century with a robust evaluation of sources of uncertainty in our projections. Our results show that, despite large differences in climate projections considered, 35% of the areas considered are consistently projected to maintain their current compatibility to native biomes. By integrating our native biome compatibility projections with maps of current actual cover, we identified areas ideal for long-term habitat conservation and restoration. Our modeling approach can be used with relatively simple data; offers multiple forms of projection confidence estimates, model calibration, and variable selection routines; and is compatible with ensemble projections. This method is not only applicable to potential native cover, as done in this study, but to any set of vegetation classes that are related to environmental predictors available for modeling.

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics 'akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and 'akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua'i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of 'akeke'e and 'akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua'i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

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First posted December 14, 2017 For additional information, contact: Director,Pacific Island Ecosystems Research CenterU.S. Geological SurveyHawaii Volcanoes National ParkPO Box 44Hawaii, HI 96718 The Hawaiian Islands are well known for their unique ecosystem assemblages that have a high proportion of endemic flora and fauna. However, since human colonization of this archipelago—starting with the arrival of Polynesian sailors approximately 1,200 years ago, and particularly following western contact in 1778—thousands of non-native species have been introduced to the Islands and many of these alien species have had severe impacts on the native ecosystems. Particularly damaging to these ecosystems are large mammals, including goats (Capra hircus), pigs (Sus scrofa), cattle (Bos taurus), deer (Axis axis and Odocoileus hemionus), and sheep (Ovis spp.), which are collectively referred to here as ungulates; they cause extensive damage to the native vegetation by their browsing, grazing, and trampling. Similar impacts have been documented elsewhere, including New Zealand and many other island ecosystems.Previous studies in Hawai‘i have utilized fenced exclosures to assess the impacts of feral or wild ungulates on vegetation and the recovery potential for the native plant communities by comparing plant community composition, structure, and cover inside the fenced area (without ungulates) over time to the vegetation condition outside of the protection of the fence. In some cases, the native vegetation recovered once the animals were removed. However, in other situations alien plants were more competitive and dominated the revegetation process after the impacts of ungulates had been reduced or eliminated.This report describes the response of a highly degraded lowland dry habitat plant community located on the south slope of east Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i, to reduction of browsing and grazing impacts caused by feral goats. For this study, vegetation response inside a fenced exclosure was compared to vegetation change in the area outside of the fence that was still accessible to goats. This study is part of the larger U.S. Geological Survey Ridge-to-Reef (USGS-R2R) research project conducted between 2008 and 2014 to better understand the magnitude of, and factors responsible for, increased erosion on Moloka‘i. The upslope erosion has resulted in heavy sedimentation of the near-shore coral reef ecosystem on the leeward side of the island. The project area and adjacent lands are managed by the East Moloka‘i Watershed Partnership (EMoWP) to restore the vegetation and reduce erosion on the leeward side of the island.Specific questions addressed in this vegetation change study include:How does the vegetation composition, structure, and cover respond to different population levels of feral goats in this area?Are there plant species that can be used as indicators of different population levels of goats?Can native plants recover and become dominant again with the reduction or elimination of goats from this area?Are there invasive plant species that respond favorably to reduction of goat populations and could result in additional management threats to this area over time?How does the succession of vegetation following goat control relate to the original composition and structure of the plant communities that were formerly found in this area?

These two raster data layers depict the land cover and degree of human disturbance to plant communities on the seven main Hawaiian Islands, and were developed as part of a comprehensive USGS assessment of carbon sequestration potential by natural ecosystems in the State of Hawaii.