Abstract The phenomenal growth of minority populations in the South, particularly Latinos and Asians, is quickly transforming the region’s politics. As most political observers see a future rising Democratic Party in the region with Asian and Latino voters joining African Americans in supporting Democratic candidates, the analyses presented in this volume demonstrate little such certainty about the future competitiveness of the two major parties in the South. Whereas the volume substantiates the strong and persistent Democratic leanings of Black voters and a majority of women, the rising minority populations’ votes are increasingly “up for grabs” by the two major parties. How the two parties fare in the future of southern politics will be driven largely by their abilities to reach these new voters. This book describes and analyzes how the politics of the South is changing fast due to rising minority populations and the increasingly Democratic leanings of women voters. Although some argue that demography is destiny, ensuring future Democratic dominance in much of the region, the evidence presented here shows a much more fluid situation, with some minority populations in particular increasingly willing to vote for Republican Party candidates. This book will help readers understand how the politics of the South is changing fast and its national implications.

Abstract Over the past decade (2010–2020), women gained political clout in every southern state. Women’s clout is measured here by increased voter registration, turnout, candidacies, and electoral success in state legislative, executive, and judicial contests. Variations in state growth rates (high, low), racial/ethnic composition (White, Black, Hispanic, Asian), age, education (noncollege versus college), and party affiliation (Democrat, Republican, independent) help explain regional and state differences. Overall, women candidates, most notably women of color, did best in high-growth, partisan competitive states with infusions of more racially/ethnically diverse and college-educated populations from other states and countries. Reticence to running, while diminishing, persists among some southern women, ranging from sexist stereotyping, fundraising, and incumbent advantage to fears of violence on the campaign trail. Predictions for continued increases in women’s political clout are based on census projections of growth in the South’s non-White population through in-migration, generational replacement, and more multiracial births.

Intergenerational political socialization is alive and well in the polarized American polity. But, by what mechanism do parental views transmit to children? We develop a theory ( dyadic social learning theory) which posits the importance of dyadic familial communication in facilitating attitudinal concordance between parents and children. Using original survey data of 1,048 dyadic pairs of American parents and middle school-aged children, we develop a novel measure of political perception that combines the perceptive accuracy of parents with the perceptive accuracy of their children. This measure of parent-child alignment, which we argue signals quality communication in families, is a powerful determinant of parent-child congruence on political views and emotions, particularly polarization. When a dyadic pair accurately perceives each other politically, the likelihood of congruent views and shared polarization increases. This research has implications for how we understand political transference of polarized views, and for broader theories of how children are socialized into the political world. It also suggests that solutions to polarization will have to address the role of parents in initiating polarization.

Abstract Asians have been largely absent from the South and its politics for most of American history, but their political power is now growing faster than that of any other racial or ethnic group in the region. Several Asian Americans have risen to political office in the South, including governors who have run or are running for president. An intriguing and unusual feature of Asians in southern politics is that their votes seem truly to be up for grabs to either political party, rare in this era of polarization. Will the vote of Asians in the South be drawn by the pro-immigration stance of the Democrats or by the law-and-order rhetoric of the Republicans? From a trickle to a tsunami, from a footnote to a chapter, soon no analysis of southern politics will be complete without at least some mention of Asian Americans.

Abstract For decades, Black voters have been the core constituency for the Democratic Party in the South. Efforts by Donald Trump to win over Black voters have shown little progress. Today, Black voters register and turn out at rates that approximate their share of the population. For Democrats to win elections, they must have a strong showing in the Black community but also attract a share of the White vote. The share of the White vote needed by Democrats to win statewide contests varies with the size of a state’s Black electorate. The component of the White electorate most likely to coalesce with an overwhelming share of the Black vote is people who have college educations. In congressional delegations and state legislative chambers, the bulk of the Democratic members are African American. In some chambers, the Black share of the seats approximates the Black population percentage.

Abstract The South continues to grow, and as it grows it becomes more diverse. The growing diversity has the potential to produce partisan realignment in states experiencing the most rapid growth. During the latter half of the twentieth century, the South realigned from solidly Democratic to Republican as the GOP came to dominate first the region’s presidential elections and then the congressional delegations. As of 2023, all but two of the eleven congressional delegations and all but one of the region’s state legislative chambers has a Republican majority. Nonetheless, Democrats have shown signs of bouncing back in the states experiencing growth rates that exceed those for the nation. If parts of the South realign toward the Democratic Party, it will depend on support from ethnic minorities and women.

Abstract Latino population growth is driving substantial political change in the South. Whereas Latino population surges once were confined to traditional destination states such as Texas and Florida, some of the fastest-growing Latino populations now are in states that are not historic destinations for Latino immigration and migration. With White and African American population growth in the South stagnant, and Asians making up a small percentage of the region’s population, it stands to reason that Latinos will hold the keys to the future of southern politics. Whereas some analysts argue that demography is destiny and thus favoring the Democratic Party, the evidence presented here shows that the Latino vote is much more “up for grabs” than many believe, making such voters the potential swing vote of the South’s future.

Abstract This chapter examines two Black candidates’ very different paths to winning Virginia statewide elections, separated by three decades: L. Douglas Wilder for lieutenant governor (1985) and governor (1989) and Justin Fairfax for lieutenant governor (2017), showing how differences in their campaigns reflect the vast demographic, social, and political changes in Virginia, and in the South generally, over that period of time. It describes how Wilder ran as a centrist who extolled his military background, fiscal conservatism, and tough-on-crime positions, as well as his deference to many of Virginia’s historic traditions, while Fairfax ran as a strong progressive on social and economic issues, as well as on criminal reform, marijuana legalization, and outright opposition to many of Virginia’s past customs and monuments. Finally, it shows how Wilder the pragmatist took the path that was politically necessary in 1980s Virginia to get elected, while Fairfax rode a wave of recent progressive growth.

In one of the most widely watched, analyzed, and expensive US Senate campaigns in history, Democratic nominee Jaime Harrison came up surprisingly well short in his bid to become the second African American elected to the US Senate from South Carolina. Democrats nationally had pinned their hopes on flipping the US Senate seat in South Carolina, given three-term Republican incumbent senator Lindsey Graham’s profile as one of the staunchest defenders of President Donald Trump. This chapter places the 2020 US Senate race in the broader context of the history of South Carolina statewide elections and racial politics in the state. It becomes clear that, although many Democrats, even from outside of South Carolina, had pinned high hopes on Harrison’s bid, past electoral history and state demographics, as well as the impact of incumbency, all played strongly against him. Although South Carolina qualifies by our metric as one of the “Growth States” of the South, it is the slowest to advance to that category and remains difficult electoral territory for a Black Democratic statewide candidate.

Abstract In one of the most widely watched, analyzed, and expensive US Senate campaigns in history, Democratic nominee Jaime Harrison came up surprisingly well short in his bid to become the second African American elected to the US Senate from South Carolina. Democrats nationally had pinned their hopes on flipping the US Senate seat in South Carolina, given three-term Republican incumbent senator Lindsey Graham’s profile as one of the staunchest defenders of President Donald Trump. This chapter places the 2020 US Senate race in the broader context of the history of South Carolina statewide elections and racial politics in the state. It becomes clear that, although many Democrats, even from outside of South Carolina, had pinned high hopes on Harrison’s bid, past electoral history and state demographics, as well as the impact of incumbency, all played strongly against him. Although South Carolina qualifies by our metric as one of the “Growth States” of the South, it is the slowest to advance to that category and remains difficult electoral territory for a Black Democratic statewide candidate.

Abstract This chapter recounts how Raphael Warnock won a runoff election in January 2021 to become Georgia’s first African American US senator and how the 2020 election cycle culminating with the 2021 Senate runoffs demonstrates that Georgia has become a competitive state. As the chapter shows, if the trends identified in this chapter continue, Democratic strength will increase during the decade: coupled with support for Stacey Abrams, who came within 55,000 votes of the governorship in 2018, Warnock’s victory, suggests that other Black candidates will follow him to the victory stand. Though statewide wins for Democrats depend in part on the degree to which recent successes were driven by distasted for Donald Trump. But, as the chapter concludes, Warnock and Abrams’s results show that the penalty that Black candidates previously paid no longer need apply in Georgia. Abrams led the Democratic ticket in 2018 with 48.8 percent of the vote. A second African American, Otha Thornton, who ran for state school superintendent, received 47 percent of the vote, clustered with several other Democrats competing for positions that attract little attention. When he runs for a full term in 2022, Warnock will likely share the spotlight and perhaps be eclipsed by Stacey Abrams making a second bid for governor.

African American candidates for statewide office in the United States face unique challenges given the nation’s complicated racial dynamics. At the dawn of the twenty-first century, the United States had elected only one African American as governor in its history—L. Douglas Wilder, a grandson of slaves who achieved this historic goal in 1989 in Virginia, once the capital of the Confederacy. Numerous media accounts at the time declared a major breakthrough in racial politics in the United States with one national news magazine actually featuring in bold type on its cover “The End of the Civil War.” More than thirty years since Wilder’s election, while Black candidates have risen to office in states such as Illinois, Massachusetts, and California, there are not many successes for African American candidates seeking statewide office in the South. This is particularly puzzling because Blacks are most numerous in the South, as a percentage of the population. This book includes analyses of the campaigns of mostly unsuccessful and some successful Black statewide candidates in the South. The purpose is to untangle the factors that lead to electoral success for these candidates, and those that continue to hold them back, from the vantage of recent election cycles with some historically close races in the South featuring African American candidates for governor of Florida and Georgia (2018), for lieutenant governor in Virginia (2017), and for the US Senate in South Carolina and Georgia (2020). But statewide contests are not limited to state offices; some of the most important southern campaigns in the twenty-first century have featured Black candidates running in the southern presidential primaries. Most notably, Barack Obama’s 2008 nomination campaign blazed a trail in the South that many believed was a template for a new style of black politics. Examining broader regional demographic and political trends, the authors project that the South is on the threshold of a major breakthrough for African American statewide candidates, which will have a substantial role in not only fundamentally changing the political dynamics of the region, but nationally as well. This change will be driven by not only African American candidates and voters but a rising coalition regionally of minorities and also White voters increasingly willing to vote for Black candidates.

Abstract The South is the region with the most African Americans, and the region that has been most crucial to the success of every African American with national political ambitions. It was the battleground of the fight against slavery, and the site of many of the most important civil rights victories. This chapter reviews the South Carolina that primary directly or indirectly ended the strong nomination challenges of Senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker in 2020 when Black voters in South Carolina chose an aging white man with a mixed record on race over two charismatic Black options. The chapter goes on to show that an unexpected win in Georgia, arguably linked to the vice presidential candidacy of Harris, gave vital support to the general election victory of Joe Biden. The 2020 primary and general elections are part of a larger recent pattern, in which the South plays a key role in determining the success, or not, of Black candidates for president.

Abstract This chapter reviews the recent campaign by Georgia’s Stacey Abrams (D) for governor. Had she succeeded, Abrams would have become the nation’s first Black, female governor. Abrams secured the Democratic nomination easily. On the other side, her general election opponent, Brian Kemp, had to come from far behind to get the Republican nomination. Key to Kemp’s runoff election victory was President Donald Trump’s endorsement. The issues each candidate emphasized during the course of the general election campaign are reviewed with special emphasis given Abrams’s claims that Kemp engaged in voter suppression. Kemp, who ran to the right in his pursuit of the nomination in the Republican primary and runoff, sought to soften his image in the general election. Results from exit polls identify the bases of strength for Abrams and Kemp. The Abrams—Kemp election is examined in the context of changes taking place in Georgia elections with comparisons made between this contest and previous, recent elections. While Abrams lost, her margin of defeat was smaller than that of other Democrats competing in two decades as she erased about three-fourths of the advantage Republican candidates had enjoyed.

Abstract This chapter reviews Progressive Black Democrat Andrew Gillum’s 2018 campaign for governor of Florida, showing how he came within 0.4 percent of defeating his White Republican, Trump-supported, opponent Ron DeSantis. It relates how Gillum’s upset primary victory over five white, better known Democratic opponents made headlines everywhere. He energized oft-neglected Black, Hispanic, and young voters. In the Republican primary, DeSantis upset the state’s popular Agriculture Commissioner. In the hard fought general election, Gillum attacked DeSantis as “racist,” for a “dog whistle” comment on Fox News. DeSantis labeled Gillum “corrupt,” as a mayor failing to report free tickets to a Broadway play. Gillum led in the polls, but higher Republican turnout gave DeSantis the win, although Gillum’s near success launched him onto the national stage. A scandalous personal incident, followed by rehab, a redemptive message, a popular podcast, and the state’s growing racial and age diversity have kept the door open. The chapter goes on to explain that the 2018 Florida gubernatorial campaign showcased the competitiveness of a Black statewide candidate in a southern state that has long swung between the two major parties. It then outlines how Florida has, in many respects, led southern political change, especially the evolution of racial politics beyond merely White and Black, to incorporate a widely diverse population of migrants and immigrants.

This book has much to offer the general reader. It is well-written, and it tersely and effectively profiles LBJ, RFK, Reagan, Wallace, Humphrey, McCarthy, and Rockefeller. None of the takes is unus...

Public health scholars have previously explored the impact of culture upon various aspects of infectious disease policy Similarly, regime type, while less studied, has been suggested as a possible explanation for varying rates of efficacy in infection vulnerability, mitigation, and abatement The COVID-19 pandemic offers an intriguing opportunity to test whether culture or level of societal freedom affects how different societies manage a serious pandemic challenge We examine whether societies that are more free or have different cultures are more or less effective at managing the spread of COVID-19 To examine possible correlational pathways, we conduct a country-level regression analysis After controlling for population size, income, stringency of government policies, population density, and age dispersion, we find that the level of freedom in a political system is unrelated to rates of COVID-19 infection, at least in the time period under study By contrast, two cultural families seemed to show at least temporary superiority in disease response: Confucian and South Asian culturally affiliated nations While our results may be artifacts of aspects of the disease not yet revealed by science, if they are sustained by future research, they potentially offer insights into unusual intersections of culture and public health

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Southern Nation: Congress and White Supremacy after Reconstruction. By David A. Bateman, Ira Katznelson, and John S. Lapinski. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018. 488p. 24.95 paper. - Volume 18 Issue 2