The hydroperiod (i.e., the length of time ponded water is present) of prairie potholes is sensitive to climate change. Because snowmelt runoff is the largest contributor to ponded water amounts, a seasonal change in precipitation timing, even when annual amounts are unchanged, can affect wetland hydroperiod. We observed a change in precipitation timing in the Alberta Prairie Pothole Region from 2014 to 2015, though cumulative precipitation amounts were near equivalent. We sought to understand whether this change in precipitation timing could result in (1) a decline in wetland hydroperiod and (2) a change in the community composition of birds, aquatic macroinvertebrates, and plants. Our findings suggest a change in precipitation timing occurred in 2015 (i.e., delayed-precipitation year), which could be tied to a decline in wetland hydroperiod. Wetlands in the delayed-precipitation year were dominated by upland birds and drought-adapted aquatic macroinvertebrates. There was no change in the community composition of plants, and we hypothesize that this may be explained by their ability to use energy stored from the previous year to survive this one-year change in their growing season. We suspect that consecutive declines in hydroperiod year-to-year could shift vegetation communities to being dominated by wet meadow or terrestrial plants; this will ultimately lead to a further reduction of waterbird habitat in the northern PPR – the last refuge for this guild in the PPR.

Abstract In the Arctic, chemical contaminants, shipping, oil pollution, plastic pollution, changing habitats in relation to climate change and fisheries have been identified as environmental stressors to seabirds such as Fulmarus glacialis (northern fulmar; qaqulluk; ᖃᖁᓪᓗᖅ), but rarely have these stressors been considered within a cumulative effects framework in this species which is currently showing a declining populations trend. As a novel tool to understand cumulative effects within a conservation context, we applied a fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) approach that allows experts to arrange key factors and their interrelationships, organizing their understanding of the components of a complex issue into a graphical representation; a ‘cognitive map’. This process was grounded in local environment concerns as documented in several Nunavut‐specific reports and discussions, and worked with western‐trained seabird experts with knowledge of northern fulmar populations to assess the inter‐related environmental threats to fulmars as a way to combine these stressors in a cumulative effects framework and identify conservation actions and knowledge gaps. We found strong agreement that the main stressors affecting northern fulmar populations in Canada include pollution (11% total influence (TI)), shipping activities (16% TI), hunting and fishing (18% TI) and mining/oil and gas exploitation activities (22% TI). The indirect influence of threats on northern fulmar population size (57% TI) exceeded the total direct influence (43% TI), emphasizing the value of cognitive mapping in cumulative effects assessment for a more holistic understanding of interacting stressors. Participants expressed substantial uncertainty regarding the strong relationships leading from the concepts, commercial fishing activity in the BBDS and the North Atlantic fisheries activity, indicating that these potential stressors require more research. Similarly, uncertainty was expressed about the potential effects of zodiac traffic, ship strikes of northern fulmar, number of oil spills and magnitude of oil spills on northern fulmar. By characterizing individual factors as manageable or not, we determined that stressors are largely manageable with enforcement of existing policies (58% TI)—importantly, fishing activities were both highly influential on fulmars and deemed manageable, which will inform ongoing co‐management planning in the region.

Abstract. Wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are forecast to retract in their ranges due to climate change and potholes that typically contain ponded water year-round, which support a larger proportion of biological communities, are most sensitive to climate change. In addition to climate, land use activities and terrain also influence ponded water amounts in PPR wetlands. However, terrain is not typically included in models forecasting the impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands. Using a combination of variables representing climate, land cover and land use, and terrain, we predicted wetland permanence class in the southern Boreal, Parkland and Grassland of the Alberta PPR. We show that while climate is the strongest predictor of wetland permanence class in each Natural Region, topography was nearly as important in the Parkland and Southern Boreal.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face complex socio-economic and environmental threats, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Blue Carbon (BC) ecosystems (mangrove forests, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows) provide climate regulation services by sequestering and storing carbon, presenting an opportunity for SIDS to address climate change and implement Paris Agreement commitments in their Covid-19 recovery. BC habitat decline not only reduces carbon sequestration benefits provided, but can also result in sediment disturbance and the release of previously stored carbon back into the atmosphere. In this work, a scenario analysis informed by a stakeholder workshop and scientific and socio-economic expectations is used to assess the economic importance of Grenada’s BC (mangroves and seagrasses) over the next 10, 25 and 50 years. Our findings indicate that sequestration benefits are severely diminished under Business-as-Usual habitat loss, but still marginally outweigh losses from carbon emissions, with overall welfare gains of US$0.5–1.9 million over 50 years. To stimulate economic recovery post-pandemic, stakeholders anticipated a realistic scenario of increased habitat decline resulting in overall losses of US$5.4–19.4 million in the next 50 years. However, if ecosystems are maintained, overall carbon benefits could reach US$10.7 million, while a 20% increase in mangroves over the next 25 years provides benefits reaching US$11.1 million between 2020 and 2070. These results demonstrate a significant increase in value when BC ecosystems are maintained and not disturbed, preventing the release of previously stored carbon and enhancing sequestration capacity. Restoration benefits are marginal, compared to conservation, supporting claims that conservation is more cost effective.

Abstract Because raptors usually occur at low densities and occupy large territories, they can be particularly sensitive to habitat degradation and loss. However, the impacts of these environmental changes on Caribbean raptors are not well understood. This is a significant conservation problem, as the restricted area of islands limits the ability of raptors to find alternate habitats when forests are degraded through agriculture, tourism, forestry, or urbanization. We surveyed the status, distribution, and habitat use of one of the resident diurnal raptors, the Antillean Broad-winged Hawk (Buteo platypterus antillarum), on the southern Caribbean island of Grenada. We surveyed this raptor species using double-observer point count and road transect surveys in the wet season (June–December 2016) and the dry season (January–May 2017). We detected a total of 262 hawks during the surveys, 70% (n = 182) in the wet season and 30% (n = 80) in the dry season. We assessed hawk habitat use based on elevation and land cover using generalized linear models and maximum entropy models and modeled detectability using N-mixture modelling. Our surveys suggest Antillean Broad-winged Hawks are abundant and widely distributed on Grenada. Broad-winged Hawks use both anthropogenically modified and naturally occurring forest, particularly in sites at relatively low elevation, and show no seasonal changes in habitat use. Keywords Buteo platypterus antillarum, detectability, diurnal raptors, Grenada, habitat loss, modelling, status Resumen Estado y distribución de Buteo platypterus antillarum en la isla de Granada • Dado que las rapaces suelen aparecer en bajas densidades y ocupan grandes territorios, pueden ser especialmente sensibles a la degradación y pérdida de hábitat. Sin embargo, los impactos de estos cambios ambientales en las rapaces del Caribe no se conocen bien. Esto es un problema de conservación importante, ya que la superficie restringida de las islas limita la capacidad de las rapaces para encontrar hábitats alternativos cuando los bosques se degradan debido a la agricultura, el turismo, la silvicultura o la urbanización. Estudiamos el estado, la distribución y el uso del hábitat de una de las rapaces diurnas residentes, Buteo platypterus antillarum, en la isla de Granada, en el sur del Caribe. Muestreamos esta especie de rapaz utilizando puntos de conteo con doble observador y transectos en carretera en la estación húmeda (junio–diciembre de 2016) y en la estación seca (enero–mayo de 2017). Detectamos un total de 262 halcones durante los muestreos, el 70% (n = 182) en la estación húmeda y el 30% (n = 80) en la estación seca. Evaluamos el uso del hábitat de los halcones en función de la elevación y la cobertura del suelo utilizando modelos lineales generalizados y modelos de máxima entropía y modelamos la detectabilidad utilizando modelos de N-mixture. Nuestros estudios sugieren que esta especie es abundante y está ampliamente distribuida en Granada. Además utilizan tanto los bosques modificados antropogénicamente como los naturales, particularmente los sitios de relativa baja altitud, y no muestran cambios estacionales en el uso del hábitat. Palabras clave Buteo platypterus antillarum, detectabilidad, estado, Granada, modelización, pérdida de hábitat, rapaces diurnas Résumé Statut et répartition de la Petite Buse (Buteo platypterus antillarum) sur l’île de Grenade • Les rapaces étant généralement peu nombreux et occupant de vastes territoires, ils peuvent être particulièrement sensibles à la dégradation et à la perte d’habitats. Cependant, les conséquences de ces changements environnementaux sur les rapaces de la Caraïbe ne sont pas bien connues. Il s’agit d’un problème de conservation important, car la superficie restreinte des îles limite les possibilités des rapaces de trouver d’autres habitats lorsque les forêts sont dégradées par l’agriculture, le tourisme, la sylviculture ou l’urbanisation. Nous avons étudié le statut, la répartition et l’utilisation des habitats de la Petite Buse (Buteo platypterus antillarum), un des rapaces diurnes présents toute l’année sur l’île de Grenade, dans le sud de la Caraïbe. Nous avons dénombré cette espèce par des comptages ponctuels à deux observateurs et par des transects le long des routes pendant la saison humide (juin– décembre 2016) et la saison sèche (janvier–mai 2017). Nous avons détecté un total de 262 individus lors des relevés, 70 % (n = 182) au cours de la saison humide et 30 % (n = 80) au cours de la saison sèche. Nous avons évalué l’utilisation des habitats par la Petite Buse en fonction de l’altitude et de la couverture terrestre à l’aide de modèles linéaires généralisés et de modèles d’entropie maximale, et nous avons modélisé la détectabilité à l’aide d’un modèle mixte. Notre étude montre que l’espèce est abondante et largement répandue sur la Grenade. Elle occupe à la fois les forêts modifiées par les activités humaines et les forêts naturelles, en particulier celles situées à une altitude relativement faible, et son utilisation des habitats ne présente aucun changement saisonnier. Mots clés Buteo platypterus antillarum, détectabilité, Grenade, modélisation, perte d’habitat, rapaces diurnes, statut

The relative role of biological and abiotic filters in the assembly of co-occurring taxa is of broad interest to ecologists. While some authors point to biological interactions (e.g., competition) as the stronger driver of ecological selection, others assert that abiotic conditions are more important because they filter species at the regional level. Because communities influenced by a dominant abiotic filter (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region [PPR] wetlands, each varying in their ponded water permanence) often have strong cross-taxon relationships, we can study these communities to better understand the relative influence of abiotic versus biotic filters on community structure. Using functional dispersion as our measure of communities, we test six alternate hypotheses about the relative importance of various pathways representing influence of biological and permanence filters on birds, aquatic macroinvertebrates, and wetland plants in the northwest PPR using structural equation modeling. We aimed to understand whether (1) ponded water permanence alone explained functional dispersion; (2) the influence of permanence on functional dispersion was direct or mediated; and (3) abiotic filtering by permanence was stronger than biotic filtering by co-occurring taxa. The best model suggests that there is a direct influence of permanence on the functional dispersion of each taxonomic group and that both bird and macroinvertebrate functional dispersion are causally related to plant functional dispersion, though for invertebrates, the influence of plants is much less than that of permanence. Thus, the relative importance of wetland permanence and the functional dispersion of co-occurring taxa depend on which taxon is considered in PPR wetlands.

Wetland losses in the Northern Prairie and Parkland Region are largely attributed to agriculture. Since land use is known to influence bird habitat selection, bird community composition is likely sensitive to the extent of neighboring agricultural activity. We determined local and landscape habitat variables predictive of wetland-dependent avian assemblage occurrence in southern Alberta. We: 1) identified distinct bird assemblages with a cluster analysis, 2) identified species indicative of these assemblages using an indicator species analysis, and 3) predicted bird assemblage occurrence in wetlands using a classification and regression tree. Wetland-dependent birds formed distinct avian assemblages that were primarily differentiated by region and local-level habitat characteristics like wetland size, depth, or vegetation cover. Generally, however, wetland-dependent bird assemblages were surprisingly insensitive to surrounding landscape composition. The extent of agricultural activity in the surrounding landscape was weakly predictive of avian assemblages in wetlands in the Grassland Natural Region, with edge-nesting birds being excluded from wetlands with >42% agricultural land cover in the surrounding landscape.

A major focus in community ecology is understanding how biological interactions and environmental conditions shape horizontal communities. However, few studies have explored whether cross-community interactions are consistent or non-stationary across environmental gradients. Using the relative abundance of birds, aquatic macroinvertebrates and plants, we examined how cross-community congruence varied between short and long-hydroperiod prairie pothole wetlands in southern Alberta. These wetlands are structured by their hydroperiod: the length of time that ponded water is present in the wetland. We compared the strength of cross-community congruence and the strength of congruence between each horizontal community and wetland hydroperiod in wetlands that typically contain ponded water throughout the year to wetlands that dry up every summer. The strength of cross-community relationships was similar between more permanent and more ephemeral wetland classes, suggesting that biological interactions have a near equivalent role in shaping community composition, regardless of hydroperiod. However, because cross-community congruence, measured as the Procrustes pseudo-R value, was, on average, 77% ± SE 12% greater than that between each horizontal community and measures of wetland hydroperiod, we concluded that community structure is not shaped by hydroperiod alone. We attribute the observed cross-community congruence to (1) plants and aquatic macroinvertebrates influence birds through habitat and food provisioning, and (2) birds influence plants and aquatic macroinvertebrates by dispersing their propagules.

Wetland losses in the Northern Prairie Pothole Region (NPPR) are largely attributed to agriculture. Since land-use is known to influence bird habitat selection, bird community composition is likely sensitive to the extent of neighboring agricultural activity. We determined which local and landscape habitat variables are most predictive of wetland bird assemblage occurrence in southern Alberta. We:1) identified distinct bird assemblages with a cluster analysis, 2) identified which species were indicative of these assemblages using an indicator species analysis and 3) predicted which bird assemblage would occur in a wetland with a classification and regression tree. Avian assemblages were more loosely defined and had few indicator species. Importantly, assemblages were specific to the natural region in which the wetland occurred. Also, landscapes with higher agricultural activity generally supported waterfowl and shorebirds, likely because agricultural activities excluded wetland-dependent birds that nest in upland habitat. Though waterfowl and shorebirds show poor sensitivity to surrounding landscape composition, edge-nesting wetland avifauna may make good indicators of ecological integrity.

ABSTRACT Comparing impacts of co-occurring anthropogenic features is necessary for regional planning and can help identify mechanisms of negative impacts of development on wildlife. Because of the vast abundance of anthropogenic features in the Northern Great Plains, their combined negative impacts on songbird habitat use (e.g., abundance) and productivity (e.g., nesting success and clutch size) could exacerbate the decline of songbird populations. We compared the cumulative effects of energy-related infrastructure (oil wells, shallow gas wells, and roads) on habitat use and productivity of songbirds across a 120 × 180 km region in southern Alberta, Canada. We examined effects on Chestnut-collared Longspur (Calcarius ornatus) and Sprague's Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both of which are listed as Threatened in Canada, and Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), Vesper Sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus), and Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta). Using piecewise regressions and generalized linear models, we estimated effects of distance from infrastructure and shallow gas well density on the habitat use and productivity of each species. We then used these analyses to quantify the availability of habitat suitable for settlement and breeding throughout our study region. Shallow gas wells, which are more abundant, affected a larger geographic area than oil wells, but oil wells were associated with the added impacts of roads. Our analyses suggest that impacts of wells on songbirds are not caused by industrial noise because individual shallow gas wells, which produce no mechanical noise, had similar impacts to noisy oil wells. Our results highlight the importance of regional plans that consider the impacts of multiple co-occurring anthropogenic features in working landscapes.

The role of deterministic and stochastic processes in community assembly is a key question in community ecology. We evaluated the effect of an abiotic filter (hydroperiod) on the partitioned diversity of three taxonomic groups (birds, vegetation, macroinvertebrates) from prairie pothole wetlands in Alberta, Canada, which naturally vary in water permanence. We observed that alpha and gamma diversity were higher in permanent than temporary wetlands (16–25% and 34–47% respectively, depending on the taxon). This suggests an influence of deterministic constraints on the number of species a wetland can support. Taxa which cannot persist in shallow, temporary wetlands are excluded by the deterministic constraints that a shortened hydroperiod imposes. In contrast, we observed that beta diversity was significantly higher (2–12%) in temporary wetlands than permanent ones, and temporary wetlands supported more unique combinations of community composition than permanent wetlands, despite having a smaller regional species pool. This observation contradicts prior mesocosm studies that found beta diversity mirrored the pattern in gamma diversity along an environmental filtering gradient. We conclude that deterministic processes are more influential in more stable permanent wetlands, whereas stochastic processes play a more important role in assembly in dynamic temporary wetlands that must disassemble and re‐establish annually. Considering three distinct taxonomic groups differing in their relative mobility, our large‐scale field study demonstrates that both stochastic and deterministic processes act together to influence the assembly of multiple communities and that the relative importance of the two processes varies consistently along a gradient of environmental filtering.