BACKGROUND: The large-scale seasonal migrations undertaken by many species require complex navigational and timing decisions. Animals migrating in groups might benefit from collective decision making, especially if the environment has large local variation rather than smooth gradients in, for example, salinity or temperature, or is unpredictable, or if the migrants cannot rely on individually acquired information. We focus on juvenile salmon whose downstream migration is timed to match suitable conditions for growth and survival at sea. While the environmental and physiological factors that influence the timing of migration have been well studied, the influence of social interactions on migration timing is poorly understood. METHOD: We compiled data on two species of juvenile salmon, collected at traps over 19 years, during their downstream seaward migration in three rivers in Washington state along with relevant environmental data. We developed state space statistical models to estimate the influence of hatchery-produced salmon in stimulating the downstream migration of wild salmon, while also incorporating potential environmental stimuli. RESULTS: Our results are consistent with the “pied-piper” hypothesis that large numbers of migrating hatchery-origin salmon provide a social cue stimulating migration of co-occurring wild salmon. The increase in the number of hatchery salmon counted at the trap was a strong predictor of the increase in wild sub-yearling Chinook salmon in the Dungeness, Puyallup, and Skagit rivers and yearling coho salmon in the Puyallup and Skagit rivers. Migration timing was also associated with abiotic factors related to temperature, river flow, and time of year. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the potential for social cues to affect migration timing of downstream migrating salmon, in concert with environmental factors. Incorporating social information into timing decisions may allow animals to benefit from collective decision-making strategies and better time their migrations. Moreover, understanding the effects of large-scale hatchery releases on wild salmon migration may provide valuable insights for planning the timing and duration of hatchery releases.

Investments in restoring river connectivity are growing worldwide to support freshwater biodiversity. Although optimization methods exist for selecting cost-effective restoration portfolios, decisions are often guided by simple heuristic rules. For example, managers may prioritize restoring barriers blocking the largest amounts of high-quality upstream habitat, ignoring the position of other barriers in the system. These heuristics often rely on proxies for watershed connectivity and habitat quality. Using anadromous fish passage restoration in western Washington, USA, as a case study, we show that redesigning these heuristics can yield substantial performance gains. Benchmarking common heuristics against optimization outcomes reveals that connectivity proxies based on total upstream habitat can achieve 93% of optimal gains when increasing habitat quantity is the sole objective, but adding widely used proxies for habitat quality (e.g., percent of upstream natural land cover) can cut performance nearly in half. These findings underscore the importance of designing heuristics that more directly target high-quality habitat gains to improve investment efficiency and help close the science-practice gap between optimization research and on-the-ground restoration decisions.

In large river basins, migratory fish populations are threatened by the combination of hydropower and climate change. With river temperatures rising and hydropower development increasing globally, the longstanding monitoring programs for threatened Pacific salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin present an opportunity to study these impacts over extended time scales. We fit a statistical model to 20 years of PIT-tagging data to jointly model the effects of temperature and dam operations (spill management) on the movement of Steelhead (anadromous Oncorhynchus mykiss) during their adult pre-spawn migration. We modeled the relationship between these factors and behaviors that pose mortality risks, including natal tributary overshoot (ascending a dam upstream of a natal tributary) and non-natal tributary use. We then used the posterior distributions of model-estimated parameters to predict the homing success of fish to natal tributaries under different climate and hydropower scenarios. Across the populations in our study, movement decisions were consistently thermally influenced, with temperature having a negative relationship with natal homing and a positive relationship with both natal tributary overshoot and non-natal tributary use. Another consistent finding across the populations in our study was that higher overshoot rates were associated with lower homing rates. Despite data limitations associated with the PIT-tag array network, we found evidence for population-specific benefits of winter spill on natal homing success, which is currently being implemented to assist the downstream migration of overshooting Steelhead. We demonstrate how integrating the effects of climate and hydropower management actions with movement ecology provides powerful insights into how species may respond to future scenarios. In our case study, we found that pre-spawn mortality of Steelhead is likely to increase with future climate change due to temperature-driven interactions with the hydrosystem, but there is potential for hydropower managers to partially offset these impacts.

Species with complex life cycles, such as anadromous fish that perform spawning migrations between freshwater and the ocean, may be particularly sensitive to global change because freshwater and marine habitats experience distinct shifts in climate and ecosystem dynamics. Abundances of wild steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) have declined across most of their range over the past 40-50 years. We examined whether declines in steelhead survival can be linked to changing climate conditions and species interactions. A novel hierarchical integrated population model that accounts for the species' complex life history was fitted to data from multiple wild steelhead populations on the Washington coast, U.S.A. The model estimates recruitment residuals and kelt survival rates as time-varying processes, which reflect annual variation in survival before and after first maturation. We found that survival rates of immature steelhead (recruits) and adult steelhead (kelts) have declined over time and that survival trends across populations were strongly associated with climate and ecosystem change, specifically summer sea surface temperature and pink salmon abundance in the North Pacific Ocean, the NPGO index and river flows. Including these drivers in the model reduced unexplained annual variation in shared recruitment and kelt survival anomalies and largely accounted for their negative long-term trends. Our findings provide evidence that rising temperatures and increased interspecific competition at sea have contributed to declines in steelhead survival over the last five decades. Considering projected warming and high pink salmon abundances in the ocean, steelhead will likely continue to experience low marine survival rates.

Temporal patterns in chemistry of headwater streams reflect responses of water and elemental cycles to perturbations occurring at local to global scales. We evaluated multi-scale temporal patterns in up to 32 y of monthly observations of stream chemistry (ammonium, calcium, dissolved organic carbon, nitrate, total dissolved phosphorus, and sulfate) in 22 reference catchments within the northern temperate zone of North America. Multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models were applied to quantify patterns at multi-decadal, seasonal, and shorter intervals during a period that encompassed warming climate, seasonal changes in precipitation, and regional declines in atmospheric deposition. Significant long-term trends in solute concentrations within a subset of the catchments were consistent with recovery from atmospheric deposition (e.g., calcium, nitrate, sulfate) and increased precipitation (e.g., dissolved organic carbon). Lack of evidence for multi-decadal trends in most catchments suggests resilience of northern temperate ecosystems or that subtle net effects of simultaneous changes in climate and disturbance regimes do not result in directional trends. Synchronous seasonal oscillations of solute concentrations occurred across many catchments, reflecting shared climate and biotic drivers of seasonality within the northern temperate zone. Despite shared patterns among catchments at a seasonal scale, multi-scale temporal patterns were statistically distinct among even adjacent headwater catchments, implying that local attributes of headwater catchments modify the signals imparted by atmospheric phenomena and regional disturbances. To effectively characterize hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to changing climate and disturbance regimes, catchment monitoring programs could include multiple streams with contributing areas that encompass regional heterogeneity in vegetation, topography, and elevation. Overall, detection of long-term patterns and trends requires monitoring multiple catchments at a frequency that captures periodic variation (e.g., seasonality) and a duration encompassing the perturbations of interest.

ObjectiveOyster reefs across North America have declined precipitously over the past 140 years. In Washington State, Olympia oyster Ostrea lurida reefs historically provided water filtration and nearshore structural habitat for fishes and invertebrates, but this species is now functionally extinct across its historical range. In place of these naturally occurring reefs, shellfish farms consisting mainly of nonnative Pacific oysters Magallana gigas now occupy patches of nearshore habitat across Washington. These farms modify intertidal substrate by adding structural habitat via suspended oyster grow bags, predator exclusion nets, loose oyster beds, and other shellfish grow-out gear. As interest and investment in shellfish aquaculture have expanded both locally and globally, so has interest in how these farms modify intertidal habitat and whether the complex structure created by the shellfish and shellfish growing gear provides ecosystem services that are comparable to those of unfarmed areas, such as mudflats and eelgrass meadows.MethodsIn this study, we sought to quantify how shellfish farms are used as foraging habitat for several common nearshore species of fish and crabs in Puget Sound, Washington. We used direct observations of species-specific behaviors from underwater video to model how habitat type affected observed foraging rates.ResultWe obtained a total of 393 crab observations, 431 demersal fish observations, and 1856 pelagic fish observations across all seven farm sites. Several common species of pelagic fish (e.g., surfperch [Embiotocidae]) used aquaculture-growing gear more frequently than unfarmed areas as foraging habitat, but Metacarcinus spp. crabs displayed higher foraging frequency in unfarmed mudflats. Species groups such as sculpins (Cottidae) and small flatfish (Pleuronectidae) clearly used specific aquaculture-growing gear and mudflats in roughly equal proportion.ConclusionOur results indicate that shellfish farms within a larger nearshore habitat mosaic of eelgrass meadows, mudflats, bivalve aquaculture gear, and edge habitat can provide foraging habitat for several species of nearshore fish. Shellfish farms within a larger nearshore habitat mosaic of eelgrass meadows, mudflats, bivalve aquaculture gear, and edge habitat can provide foraging habitat for several species of nearshore fish.Impact statement

Bivalves such as oysters and clams have been farmed in intertidal zones across the Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea for thousands of years. The variety of gear types used on bivalve farms creates complex vertical structure and attachment points for aquatic epiphytes and invertebrates which increases habitat structural complexity, but may alter eelgrass cover in areas where bivalve farms and eelgrass meadows overlap. Eelgrass meadows are highly productive and ecologically foundational nearshore habitats that provide valuable ecosystem services including the provision of nursery, refuge, and foraging habitat. Aquaculture has been a key feature of the environment in the Puget Sound for millennia, however, little is known about how well aquaculture practices are integrated into the system, and what services they provide to mobile species assemblages relative to unfarmed eelgrass meadows. We used stable isotope mixing models to estimate, for several species of nearshore fish and crab in two areas of North Puget Sound, Washington, the percent diet originating from either a natural bottom habitat (eelgrass meadows), farm habitat (oyster farms), or pelagic planktonic sources. Our results indicate that several species of nearshore fish such as surf perch and staghorn sculpin derive a significant proportion of their diets from farm areas, while crabs derive most of their diets from eelgrass habitat, and stickleback derive a significant proportion of their diets from planktonic sources. The results indicate that foraging habitat uses are species specific, and that several species that spatially overlap bivalve farms obtained a large percentage of their diets from adjacent bivalve farm habitat.

Life history diversity can significantly affect population dynamics and effects of management actions. For instance, variation in individual responses to environmental variability can reduce extirpation risk to populations, as the portfolio effect dampens temporal variability in abundance. Moreover, differences in habitat use may cause individuals to respond differently to habitat management and climate variability. To explore the role of life history diversity in population trajectories, population models need to incorporate within-population variation. Integrated population modeling (IPM) is a population modeling approach that offers several advantages for sharing information and propagating uncertainty across datasets. In this study, we developed an IPM for an endangered population of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA, that accounts for diversity in juvenile life histories, spawning location, and return age. Our analysis revealed that diversity in the age of juvenile emigration from natal streams had a portfolio effect, resulting in a 20% reduction in year-to-year variability in adult abundance in population projections. Our population viability analysis suggests that management interventions may be necessary to meet recovery goals, and our model should be useful for simulating the outcomes of proposed actions.

The hydrological effects of climate change are documented in many regions; however, climate-driven impacts to the source and transport of river nutrients remain poorly understood. Understanding the factors controlling nutrient dynamics across river systems is critical to preserve ecosystem function yet challenging given the complexity of landscape and climate interactions. Here, we harness a large regional dataset of nitrate (NO 3 – ) yield, concentration, and isotopic composition (δ 15 N and δ 18 O) to evaluate the strength of hydroclimate and landscape variables in controlling the seasonal source and transport of NO 3 – . We show that hydroclimate strongly influenced the seasonality of river NO 3 – , producing distinct, source-dependent NO 3 – regimes across rivers from two mountain ranges. Riverine responses to hydroclimate were also constrained by watershed-scale topographic features, demonstrating that while regional climate strongly influences the timing of river NO 3 – transport, watershed topography plays a distinct role in mediating the sensitivity of river NO 3 – dynamics to future change.

Individual variation in life-history traits can have important implications for the ability of populations to respond to environmental variability and change. In migratory animals, flexibility in the timing of life-history events, such as juvenile emigration from natal areas, can influence the effects of population density and environmental conditions on habitat use and population dynamics. We evaluated the functional relationships between population density and environmental covariates and the abundance of juveniles expressing different life-history pathways in a migratory fish, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), in the Wenatchee River basin in Washington State, USA. We found that the abundance of younger emigrants from natal streams was best described by an accelerating or near-linear function of spawners, whereas the abundance of older emigrants was best described by a decelerating function of spawners. This supports the hypothesis that emigration timing varies in response to density in natal areas, with younger-emigrating life-history pathways comprising a larger proportion of emigrants when densities of conspecifics are high. We also observed positive relationships between winter stream discharge and abundance of younger emigrants, supporting the hypothesis that habitat conditions can also influence the prevalence of different life-history pathways. Our results suggest that early emigration, and a resultant increase in the use of downstream rearing habitats, may increase at higher population densities and with greater winter precipitation. Winter precipitation is projected to increase in this system due to climate warming. Characterizing relationships between life-history prevalence and environmental conditions may improve our understanding of species habitat requirements and is a first step in understanding the dynamics of species with diverse life-history strategies. As environmental conditions change-due to climate change, management, or other factors-resultant life-history changes are likely to have important demographic implications that will be challenging to predict when life-history diversity is not accounted for in population models.

Objective: The distinct population segment (DPS) of Yelloweye Rockfish Sebastes ruberrimus inhabiting the Puget Sound/Georgia Basin was listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2010, and a formal recovery plan for the DPS was published by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries in 2017. In this recovery plan, the biological criteria for delisting or downlisting were specified as certain levels of spawning potential ratio (SPR), a commonly used metric of equilibrium stock status for commercially exploited fishes. Although this metric can be estimated from length compositions, the combination of length data with a catch history (which was not previously available for this DPS) improves our understanding of population dynamics over time and allows us to estimate a different measure of stock status, relative (to unfished) spawning stock biomass (SSB), rather than only SPR.Methods: To estimate relative SSB and reconstruct the historical dynamics of this DPS, we reconstructed the catch history from fisheries records, collated length data from historical and contemporary hook-and-line surveys, and fitted a data-limited version of a statistical catch-at-age model.Result: Despite a high level of uncertainty, we estimated that Yelloweye Rockfish in Puget Sound are above 25% of unfished biomass (a reference point detailed in the recovery criteria) under the assumption of deterministic recruitment, presenting the first direct estimates of Yelloweye Rockfish population status in Puget Sound.Conclusion: However, as informed by recent genetic studies, the DPS boundaries of ESA-listed Yelloweye Rockfish extend from South Puget Sound to Queen Charlotte Strait in British Columbia. The Canadian portion of this population is managed separately and is currently estimated to be at 32% of unfished biomass (95% quantiles = 15%-68%). Thus, the disjunction between the biological boundaries of the population and the jurisdictional boundaries between Canada and the United States presents an additional source of uncertainty in assessing recovery that must be addressed to achieve DPS-wide recovery goals.

The decline in salmon and steelhead populations in the Columbia River Basin has been well documented, as have the decades-long, $9 billion restoration spending efforts by federal and state agencies. These efforts are mainly tied to Endangered Species Act (ESA) mandates for recovery of wild, naturally-spawning threatened or endangered fish species. The impact of these efforts remains poorly understood; many observers, including the federal courts, have long been concerned by the lack of evidence of recovery. Most studies evaluating restoration efforts have examined individual projects for specific species, reaches, or life stages, which limits the ability to make broad inferences at the basin level. There is a need to ask: is there evidence of an overall increase in wild fish abundance associated with the totality of these recovery efforts? To that end, the current study estimates fixed-effects panel regression models of adult returns of four species. Results indicate that restoration spending combined with hatchery production are associated with substantial increases in returning adult fish. Evidence of benefits to wild fish alone, however, require indirect approaches given the commingling of restoration spending with spending on hatchery releases, the impacts of spending on hatchery fish survival, and the density dependence effects of hatchery releases. To accomplish this, the models' predicted adult returns (both hatchery and wild fish) attributed to both spending and hatchery releases are compared to independent estimates of returning hatchery fish based on hatchery survival estimates (smolt-to-adult ratios). The comparison finds the model-predicted levels of adult returns due to spending and hatchery releases do not exceed the survival-rate based estimates for hatcheries alone, so that we are unable to reject the hypothesis of no benefits to wild fish from the restoration spending.

Extreme heat is one of the most important pathways illustrating the connection between climate and human health, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this public health issue. This study first used a case-crossover analysis to characterize the historical (1980–2018) association between summertime heat and non-traumatic mortality in Washington State. A separate analysis was conducted for each of the state’s ten climate divisions to produce distinct exposure–response curves expressing odds of mortality as a function of humidex. Stratified analyses were used to assess the impact of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and select causes of death, and the reported results are pooled across all divisions using meta-analysis. The historical heat–mortality relationship was combined with climate projections to estimate the impact of climate change on heat-related deaths in 2030, 2050, and 2080 under two warming scenarios. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals of mortality at the 99th percentile of humidex compared to the 50th percentile did not include the null value in four climate divisions (E Olympic Cascade Foothills, NE Olympic San Juan, Northeastern, and Puget Sound Lowlands). The statewide odds of mortality are 8% higher (6%, 10%) on 99th percentile days compared to 50th percentile days, driven primarily by an OR of 1.09 (1.06, 1.11) in the Puget Sound Lowlands. Risk is higher for women than men and for Blacks than Whites. Risk increases with age and for diabetic, circulatory, cardiovascular, ischemic, cerebrovascular, and respiratory deaths. The 95% confidence intervals of projected heat-attributable mortality did not overlap with zero in three climate divisions (E Olympic Cascade Foothills, NE Olympic San Juan, and Puget Sound Lowlands). In these three divisions, the average percent increase in heat-attributable mortality across both warming scenarios is 35%, 35%, and 603% in 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively. This research is the most extensive study of heat-related mortality in Washington to date and can help inform public health initiatives aiming to improve present and future health outcomes in the state.

The tengu_derby_size.csv file contains information on the following fields (columns): year members (number of anglers who participated in the derby; not all anglers fished each day the derby was open) n_over_10 (total number of Chinok salmon greater than 10 pounds) n_over_5 (total number of Chinok salmon greater than 5 pounds) size_1 (mass in kg of the largest fish landed) size_2 (mass in kg of the second largest fish landed) size_3 (mass in kg of the third largest fish landed) size_4 (mass in kg of the fourth largest fish landed) size_5 (mass in kg of the fifth largest fish landed) The wdfw_size.csv file contains the following fields (columns): year mass (mean mass in kg of natural- and hatchery-origin Chinook salmon combined)

In Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp., downward trends in size and abundance have been reported for species and stocks for over 40 years, but the patterns are inconsistent among regions and species. Interpretation of these trends is complicated by many possible contributing factors, including short time series, data comprising a mix of stocks, and varying gear types. Here, we present data on the mass of individual Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha caught in the winter from 1946 to 2019 in central Puget Sound, Washington, by participants in what may be the longest running Pacific salmon derby in North America, the Tengu Derby. In this annual recreational fishing competition, established by Japanese Americans immediately after release from internment camps at the end of World War II, participants follow strict gear, area, and methods regulations and catch almost exclusively salmonids originating from and remaining in Puget Sound. Records revealed an overall decline in fish mass over the decades, with a high degree of variability throughout the time series. Specifically, resident Chinook Salmon exhibited several shifts, including a decrease in size from a high in the 1950s to a low around 1980, followed by an increase to another high around 1990 and then a decline over the most recent 30 years. These size trends of residents differed from those of Puget Sound Chinook Salmon as a whole. We infer that the resident fish experienced ecological conditions affecting their growth that were distinct from those of fish feeding along the Pacific Ocean in the same periods. These distinct trends in size of Chinook Salmon from common origins indicate that the different migration patterns of fish within stocks must be considered in the analysis and interpretation of body size trends and also in patterns of survival.

Using multi-species time series data has long been of interest for estimating inter-specific interactions with vector autoregressive models (VAR) and state space VAR models (VARSS); these methods are also described in the ecological literature as multivariate autoregressive models (MAR, MARSS). To date, most studies have used these approaches on relatively small food webs where the total number of interactions to be estimated is relatively small. However, as the number of species or functional groups increases, the length of the time series must also increase to provide enough degrees of freedom with which to estimate the pairwise interactions. To address this issue, we use Bayesian methods to explore the potential benefits of using regularized priors, such as Laplace and regularized horseshoe, on estimating interspecific interactions with VAR and VARSS models. We first perform a large-scale simulation study, examining the performance of alternative priors across various levels of observation error. Results from these simulations show that for sparse matrices, the regularized horseshoe prior minimizes the bias and variance across all inter-specific interactions. We then apply the Bayesian VAR model with regularized priors to a output from a large marine food web model (37 species) from the west coast of the USA. Results from this analysis indicate that regularization improves predictive performance of the VAR model, while still identifying important inter-specific interactions.

Fishery managers often rely on forecasts of future population abundance to set allowable harvest quotas or exploitation rates. While there has been substantial research devoted to identifying environmental factors that can predict recruitment for individual populations, such correlations often degrade over time, thereby limiting their utility for management. Conversely, examining multiple populations at once to detect shared, spatially structured patterns can offer insights into their recruitment dynamics that are advantageous for forecasting. Here, we develop a population dynamics model for natural origin coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) stocks in Washington State that leverages spatial and temporal autocorrelation in marine survival to improve one-year-ahead forecasts of adult returns. Executed in a Bayesian hierarchical integrated modelling framework, our spatiotemporal approach incorporates multiple data types and shares information among stocks to estimate key biological parameters that are informative for forecasting. Retrospective evaluation of one-year-ahead forecast skill indicated that the spatiotemporal integrated population model (ST-IPM) outperformed existing forecasts of Washington State coho salmon returns by 25–38 % on average. Moreover, the ST-IPM estimates parameters that were previously non-identifiable for many stocks, and propagates uncertainty from multiple contributing data sources into model forecasts. Our results add to a growing body of work demonstrating the utility of spatiotemporal and integrated approaches for modelling population dynamics, and the framework developed here has broad applications to the assessment and management of coho salmon in Washington State and elsewhere throughout their range.

Temporal patterns in stream chemistry provide integrated signals describing the hydrological and ecological state of whole catchments. However, stream chemistry integrates multi-scale signals of processes occurring in both the catchment and stream. Deconvoluting these signals could identify mechanisms of solute transport and transformation and provide a basis for monitoring ecosystem change. We applied trend analysis, wavelet decomposition, multivariate autoregressive state-space modeling, and analysis of concentration–discharge relationships to assess temporal patterns in high-frequency (15 min) stream chemistry from permafrost-influenced boreal catchments in Interior Alaska at diel, storm, and seasonal time scales. We compared catchments that varied in spatial extent of permafrost to identify characteristic biogeochemical signals. Catchments with higher spatial extents of permafrost were characterized by increasing nitrate concentration through the thaw season, an abrupt increase in nitrate and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) and declining conductivity in late summer, and flushing of nitrate and fDOM during summer rainstorms. In contrast, these patterns were absent, of lower magnitude, or reversed in catchments with lower permafrost extent. Solute dynamics revealed a positive influence of permafrost on fDOM export and the role of shallow, seasonally dynamic flowpaths in delivering solutes from high-permafrost catchments to streams. Lower spatial extent of permafrost resulted in static delivery of nitrate and limited transport of fDOM to streams. Shifts in concentration–discharge relationships and seasonal trends in stream chemistry toward less temporally dynamic patterns might therefore indicate reorganized catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry due to permafrost thaw.

The location and timing of spawning play a critical role in pelagic fish survival during early life stages and can affect subsequent recruitment. Spawning patterns of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) were examined in Prince William Sound (1973–2019) where the population has failed to recover since its collapse in 1993. Abrupt shifts in spawn distribution preceded the rapid increase in population size in the 1980s and later its collapse by one and two years, respectively. Following the population collapse, spawning contracted away from historical regions towards southeastern areas of the Sound, and the proportion of occupied spawning areas declined from 65% to <9%. Spatial differences in spawn timing variation were also apparent, as the median spawn date shifted earlier by 26 days in eastern and 15 days in western areas of Prince William Sound between 1980 and 2006, and then shifted later by 25 (eastern) and 19 (western) days over a 7-year period. Effects of contracted spawning areas and timing shifts on first-year survival and recruitment are uncertain and require future investigation.

Winters are changing rapidly across the globe but the implications for aquatic productivity and food webs are not well understood. In addition, the degree to which winter dynamics in aquatic systems respond to large‐scale climate versus ecosystem‐level factors is unclear but important for understanding and managing potential changes. We used a unique winter data set from the Upper Mississippi River System to explore spatial and temporal patterns in phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a , CHL) and associated environmental covariates across 25 years and ∼1,500 river km. To assess the role of regional climate versus site‐specific drivers of winter CHL, we evaluated whether there were coherent long‐term CHL dynamics from north to south and across lotic‐lentic areas. We then estimated the degree to which these patterns were associated with climate variability (i.e., the Multivariate El Nino‐Southern Oscillation Index), winter severity (freezing degree days), river discharge, or site‐specific environmental variables (ice depth, snow depth, and nutrient concentrations). We found that winter CHL was typically highest in ice‐free reaches and backwater lakes, occasionally exceeding summer values. We did not find highly synchronous CHL dynamics across the basin, but instead show that temporal trends were independent among river reaches and lotic‐lentic areas of the river. Moreover, after accounting for these spatial dynamics, we found that CHL was most responsive to winter air temperature, being consistently higher in years with warmer winters across the basin. These results indicate that although productivity dynamics are highly dynamic within large river ecosystems, changes in the duration and severity of winter may uniformly increase wintertime productivity.