This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump's foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump's beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump's profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.

Over the last twenty years since the introduction of automated coding schemes, research in foreign policy analysis (FPA) has made great advances. However, this automatization process is based on the analysis of verbal statements of leaders to create leadership profiles and has remained largely confined in terms of language. That is, the coding schemes can only parse English-language texts. This reduces both the quality and quantity of available data and limits the application of these leadership profiling techniques beyond the Anglosphere. Against this background, this forum offers five reports on the development of freely available coding schemes for either operational code analysis or leadership trait analysis for languages other than English (i.e., Turkish, Arabic, Spanish, German, and Persian).

This study starts by examining the background economic circumstances of the 2007 Water Act and the 2012 Murray Darling Basin Plan. During the 1990s, a competitive Australian dollar contributed to an expansion of some sectors in the Murray Darling Basin, notably wine grapes. From the turn of the millennium, two adverse background events brought difficulties for agriculture in the Basin. First, the millennium drought resulted in reduced irrigation water allocations and contributed to diminished dry-land productivity, notably in 2002-03 and from 2006-07 to 2008-09. Second, the Australian dollar appreciated markedly relative to levels of the 1990s in the wake of the mining boom. This diminished returns to agriculture. In the context of background difficulties, there were mixed responses in Basin communities to the Water Act (McCormick 2007). Some farmers embraced the financial option that arose from proposed buybacks, using proceeds as an opportunity to restructure or retire. Others regarded buybacks as a threat to the viability of Basin communities. Using TERM-H2O, a multi-regional CGE model of Basin regions, previous studies showed that the marginal impacts of buybacks are second-order relative to drought, and can even be positive. A change in political direction has resulted in a suspension of water buybacks, regarded by economists as the cheapest mechanism to increase environmental flows. The Basin Plan is at present concentrating on infrastructure upgrades. An updated version of TERM-H2O shows that a $4 billion program on upgrades between 2020 and 2024 to procure almost 500 GL of water for the environment would result in a net present value (NPV) welfare loss of $1.1 billion. The investment in upgrades increases jobs in the Basin by around 1000 relative to no investment for each of the five years of upgrades. Thereafter, Basin jobs increase by around 100 relative to no upgrades, based on estimated productivity gains arising from the upgrades. This study also models the marginal impacts of increased public spending of $4 billion over 10 years on services in the Basin. This is treated as a substitute for infrastructure upgrades. In this scenario, the same volume of water rights, almost 500 GL, is set aside for environmental purposes. Each dollar spent on education, health and community services creates four times as many jobs as spending on infrastructure upgrades. That is, jobs in the Basin rise relative to base by between 1,800 and 2,100 over the decade of additional spending. The NPV of the welfare loss is $0.125 billion.

We consider the connection between water marketing and the modification of property rights to water in Australia, highlighting the Australian’s distinctiveness through a contrast with water rights in the western US (especially California). Australia started out the same as California, but in the 1880s it abandoned California’s system and adopted a new approach, ending the common law property right to water and creating a statutory right that could be modified by administrative fiat. This shifted the arena for dispute resolution from courts to parliaments. It eliminated the seniority inherent in appropriative water rights and it sidelined issues of third-party impacts. Another difference was the tight control of irrigation institutions by state governments and the national government’s willingness to intervene in state and local water management. Australian water reform was wrapped in politics. When there were successes, this is because the politics were managed adroitly; when political challenges proved insurmountable, reform stalled.

In many places irrigation systems rely on robust governance for continued existence. Elinor Ostrom listed design principles that should achieve robust governance, but doubted that any list could be both necessary and sufficient to result in robust governance. To date, this assumption has never been formally tested. We conduct a meta-analysis and ultimately evaluate 62 case studies via fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to identify necessary/sufficient conditions for robust irrigation system governance. We identify four necessary conditions and seven configurations sufficient for robust governance. Further, we identify a union of conditions that, when absent, are likely to result in system failure.

A framework for the review of existing water management systems and their transformation into robust water sharing systems is offered. The framework focuses on the need to develop efficient and equitable ways to manage water scarcity and plan to deal with the tensions scarcity imposes on any community. The framework identifies a way to bring together traditional community-managed systems with those typically used to allocate water to large water users and more commonly found in developed countries. So that use can be kept within sustainable limits while optimizing use, the framework includes mechanisms that enable the reallocation of water as demand and supply conditions change. Non-consumptive uses are recognized and environmental objectives can be delivered efficiently. Compliance with well-established accounting and hydro-logical concepts. Ways to increase the value of existing entitlements, encourage innovation and protect investments are included as options. It is recognized that the governance and legal arrangements necessary to underpin successful implantation are context specific.

The potential development of an oil industry in the Great Australian Bight provides a number of opportunities and challenges. Potentially, the development may affect local communities, regional economies and the environment. Developing a baseline, before any development takes place, enables changes due to the development being better identified and understood. The aim of this study was to develop a comprehensive baseline for the social and economic environment of the region most likely to be impacted by the development of an oil industry in the Great Australian Bight. The baseline study identified that the region is characterised by a small and sparsely distributed population, highly dependent on primary industries for the most part. The study also identified that there is a strong attachment to place in the region, with the current pristine coastal and marine environment a key factor underlying this attachment.

Australia has defined its water entitlement and allocation arrangements in a manner that has made it possible to establish one of the world’s most sophisticated water marketing systems. Entitlements are defined in perpetuity as an entitlement to a proportion of any allocations assigned to a water resource pool. Entitlements and allocations are tradable and in the Southern Connected River Murray system a vibrant water market has emerged. The functioning of this market is reviewed in this chapter. Overall the assessment from an individual water use perspective is that the introduction of this EPI has succeeded. From a national perspective, most experts also describe it as a success. As a Nation however, Australia would have been better off if it had solved the water accounting and over-allocation problems before it introduced water trading. An important conclusion is that unbundling has made it easier to resolve issues step by step. It also makes it much easier for individuals to adjust and innovate. New business and new technology must be expected to emerge with each reform that is made. The chapter concludes by highlighting relevant policy lessons for the practical application of water markets.

Profiler Plus is a general-purpose "natural language" analysis application implemented in Common Lisp. We discuss its capabilities in the context of two points of view which are brought together here for the first time: that of Social Science Automation which commissioned the product and programmed the rules which drive it; and that of Ravenbrook which, without ever wholly understanding what it did, successfully implemented it.

Most of the world's water entitlement and allocation regimes evolved during periods of abundance and, hence, are not well suited to the management of water scarcity. Development of the institutional arrangements necessary to manage changing demands and supplies is in its infancy. Design criteria for the development of a set of institutional arrangements for the robust management of scarce water resources is offered and then used to develop a generic framework for the allocation and use of water. Variations to account for differences in ground, regulated and unregulated water resources are offered. The question of how best to sequence reform of existing water entitlement and allocation regimes is also addressed.The result is a recommendation for the use of water sharing plans to determine how much water may be used at any point in time and an unbundled suite of arrangements that enable efficient but separated management of long term and short term considerations and, also, the control of externalities. System-wide adjustment is facilitated through the periodic revision of water sharing plans. Individual adjustment to changing circumstances is facilitated through trade in entitlements and allocations.Before the introduction of institutional arrangements that encourage adjustment through trade it is recommended that the abstraction regime used be converted into one that accounts for return flows and allocates water according to shareholder entitlement. Seniority, beneficial-use criteria and opportunities to third parties to prevent adjustment according to pre-specified rules should be repealed. Well-designed regimes can be extended to include dam-capacity shares and allow the use of market-based instruments in delivery of water-quality objectives. Pooling can be used to lower the costs of risk management. (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

This piece is a response to the Conway, Conway, Gornick, and Houck (2014) description of an automated method for assessing integrative complexity. It builds on the authors' 15 years of experience in automating a variety of textual analysis coding schemes including that measuring conceptual complexity and is intended to address some of the issues raised in the process of automating content analysis categories.

Three experiments simulating military RADAR detection addressed a training difficulty hypothesis (training with difficulty promotes superior later testing performance) and a procedural reinstatement hypothesis (test performance improves when training conditions match test conditions). Training and testing were separated by 1 week. Participants detected targets (either alphanumeric characters or vehicle pictures) occurring among distractors. Two secondary tasks were used to increase difficulty (a concurrent, irrelevant tone-counting task and a sequential, relevant action-firing response). In Experiment 1, involving alphanumeric targets with rapid displays, tone counting during training degraded test performance. In Experiment 2, involving vehicle targets with both sources of difficulty and slower presentation times, training under relevant difficulty aided test accuracy. In Experiment 3, involving vehicle targets and action firing with slow presentation times, test accuracy tended to be worst when neither training nor testing involved difficult conditions. These results show boundary conditions for the training difficulty and procedural reinstatement hypotheses. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In an ever-changing world with an increasing demand for water, and with the emerging possibility that climate regimes may change, there is a need to put in place arrangements to enable the water resource system to adapt and support itself no matter what the future may bring. Irrigation could be expected to come and go, rivers and the associated environment must be expected to change and the expectations and attitudes of communities and societies will also change.This chapter focuses on the nature of water allocation regimes that are designed to cope with adverse shifts in water supply, with changing input and product prices, with changing demands for water, and to facilitate adjustment through the adoption of new technologies and management approaches. In essence, we seek guidelines for the development of an allocation and associated administrative regime that is robust-robust in the sense that the regime can be described confidently as likely to withstand the test of time, no matter what climatic and economic future arrives. A robust allocation regime for a regulated river system is defined that first allocates water to enable the maintenance of functioning river sufficient to allow water to be extracted for use, then allocates the available water as unit shares between consumption and environment entitlements. A key feature is the need to give careful attention to water accounting arrangements to ensure hydrological integrity of the system and to arrangements that encourage smart and innovative management of environmental water.

This document, Environmental Effectiveness and Economic Efficiency of Water Use in Agriculture: The Experience of and Lessons from the Australian Water Reform Programme, by Michael D. Young, of The University of Adelaide, Australia, is one of the background reports supporting the OECD study (2010) Sustainable Management of Water Resources in Agriculture, which is available at www.oecd.org/water .

This paper presents a comparison of two models, built on the same architecture, ACT-R, and on the same dynamic decision making task, RADAR. The two models represent the Strategy-Based Learning (SBL) approach and the Instance-Based Learning (IBL) approach. The SBL approach assumes a certain set of predefined strategies, and learning occurs by selecting the most successful strategy over time. The IBL approach proposes that decisions are made based on retrieval of good past experiences stored in memory. This approach assumes no previous initial experience apart from that gained while performing the task. Both models were tested with respect to two criteria: fit to human data during a training exercise with RADAR and adaptability to test conditions that are either similar to or different from the training conditions. Our comparison results demonstrate that both models fit learning human data successfully, but the IBL model is more robust than the SBL model. This exercise initiates a discussion of the SBL and IBL approaches to modeling choice and decision making in ACTR and a reevaluation of how to compare and assess computational models.

When entitlements to access water in fully allocated river and aquifers are specified in a manner that is inconsistent with the ways that water arrives, flows across and flows through land, inefficient investment and water use is the result. Using Australia's Murray Darling Basin as an example, this paper attempts to reveal the adverse economic and water management consequences of entitlement and water sharing regime misspecification in regimes that allow water trading. Markets trade water products as specified. When entitlements and the water sharing system are not designed in a way that has hydrological integrity, the market trades the water management regime into trouble. Options for specification of entitlement and allocation regimes in ways that have hydrological integrity are presented. It is reasoned, that if entitlement and allocation regime are set up in ways that have hydrological integrity, the result should be a regime that can autonomously adjust to climatic shifts, changes in prices and changes in technology without compromising environmental objectives.