Water quality index (WQI) is a well-established tool for assessing the overall quality of fresh inland-waters. However, the effectiveness of real-time assessment of aquatic ecosystems using the WQI is usually impacted by the absence of some water quality parameters in which their accurately in-situ measurements are impossible and face difficulties. Using a rich water quality dataset spanned from 1980 to 2023, we employed four machine learning-based models to estimate the British Colombia WQI (BCWQI) in the Lake Päijänne, Finland, without parameters like chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP). Measurement of both COD and TP is time-consuming, needs laboratory equipment and labor costs, and faces sampling-related difficulties. Our results suggest the machine learning-based models successfully estimate the BCWQI in Lake Päijänne when TP and COD are omitted from the dataset. The long-short term memory model is the least sensitive model to exclusion of COD and TP from inputs. This model with the coefficient of determination and root-mean squared error of 0.91 and 0.11, respectively, outperforms the support vector regression, random forest, and neural network models in real-time estimation of the BCWQI in Lake Päijänne. Incorporation of BCWQI with the machine learning-based models could enhance assessment of overall quality of inland-waters with a limited database in a more economical and time-saving way. Our proposed method is an effort to replace the traditional offline water quality assessment tools with a real-time model and improve understanding of decision-makers on the effectiveness of management practices on the changes in lake water quality.

Lake surface-water temperature (LSWT) regulates physical and biochemical processes in lakes. Therefore, understanding the LSWT dynamics is important, especially in Arctic zone since the region is experiencing a warming rate that is greater than the Earth’s average. However, regular measurements of LSWT in the remote Arctic lakes always face difficulties or cannot be done by satellites accurately due to the cloud cover and their limited spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we used a historically rich data (1960–2023) to develop four machine learning-based algorithms for the daily LSWT modeling in Lake Inari, situated in Arctic zone, using the air-temperature data. Our results showed that both air-temperature (0.030 °C/yr) and LSWT (0.023m °C/yr) were warming with a rate faster than those in the globe. The long-short-term memory model, with the coefficients of determination varied from 0.96 to 0.98, outperformed other algorithms in modeling of the daily LSWT dynamics in Lake Inari, followed by both support vector regression and neural network tools, and random forest model. As the air-temperature data are widely accessible through synoptic stations and remote sensing techniques, our suggested models can be simply adopted for other Arctic lakes, where the local water-temperature data are often lacking or contain large windows of missing data due to harsh atmospheric conditions and equipment failure.

Although numerical water quality models offer valuable insights into thermal stratification (TSn) and mixing dynamics in lakes, they are often resource and time consuming, limiting their applications for investigating a large number of lakes over a wide geographical area. An alternative approach is using well-known thermal classification systems, which require minimum data to provide acceptable information on TSn and mixing patterns in lakes. This study investigates the TSn and mixing regimes in 198 dam reservoirs located in Iran, using Lewis’s method for analysis. The results highlight that all 198 investigated reservoirs in Iran can be represented by six out of eight possible thermal classifications. The majority of the northeastern reservoirs are categorized as “warm monomictic”. For the reservoirs located in the north and northwest regions, all six thermal classes are observed. However, in the southern part of Iran, only the reservoirs of “continuous warm polymictic”, “warm monomictic”, and “discontinuous cold polymictic” types are located. Our findings reveal that 35.4%, 21.2%, 17.2%, 13.1%, 6.6%, and 5.6% of the investigated reservoirs were classified as “warm monomictic”, “discontinuous cold polymictic”, “continuous cold polymictic”, “dimictic”, “discontinuous warm polymictic”, and “continuous warm polymictic”, respectively. Our results can provide authorities with initial insights for further in-depth studies and decision-making into water quality management in Iran and enhancement strategies for the reservoirs in the country.

Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection and control protocols for these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to model the streamflow and sediment inputs to wetlands under the combined effects of climate and land use / land cover (LULC) changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation and temperature data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) for different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are downscaled and bias-corrected with Euclidean distance method and quantile delta mapping (QDM) for the case of the Anzali wetland watershed (AWW) in Iran. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is adopted to project the future LULC at the AWW. The results indicate that the precipitation and air temperature across the AWW will decrease and increase, respectively, under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Streamflow and sediment loads will reduce under the sole influence of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. An increase in sediment load and inflow was observed under the combined effects of climate and LULC changes, this is mainly due to the projected increased deforestation and urbanization across the AWW. The findings suggest that the densely vegetated regions, mainly located in the zones with steep slope, significantly prevents large sediment load and high streamflow input to the AWW. Under the combined effects of the climate and LULC changes, by 2100, the projected total sediment input to the wetland will reach 22.66, 20.83, and 19.93 million tons under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results highlight that without any robust environmental interventions, the large sediment inputs will significantly degrade the Anzali wetland ecosystem and partly-fill the wetland basin, resulting in resigning the wetland from the Montreux record list and the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance.

Sediment load in fluvial systems is one of the critical factors shaping the river geomorphological and hydraulic characteristics. A detailed understanding of the total sediment load (TSL) is required for the protection of physical, environmental, and ecological functions of rivers. This study develops a robust methodological approach based on multiple linear regression (MLR) and support vector regression (SVR) models modified by principal component analysis (PCA) to predict the TSL in rivers. A database of sediment measurement from large-scale physical modelling tests with 4759 datapoints were used to develop the predictive model. A dimensional analysis was performed based on the literature, and ten dimensionless parameters were identified as the key drivers of the TSL in rivers. These drivers were converted to uncorrelated principal components to feed the MLR and SVR models (PCA-based MLR and PCA-based SVR models) developed within this study. A stepwise PCA-based MLR and a 10-fold PCA-based SVR model with different kernel-type functions were tuned to derive an accurate TSL predictive model. Our findings suggest that the PCA-based SVR model with the kernel-type radial basis function has the best predictive performance in terms of statistical error measures including the root-mean-square error normalized with the standard deviation (RMSE/StD) and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), for the estimation of the TSL in rivers. The PCA-based MLR and PCA-based SVR models, with an overall RMSE/StD of 0.45 and 0.35, respectively, outperform the existing well-established empirical formulae for TSL estimation. The analysis of the results confirms the robustness of the proposed PCA-based SVR model for prediction of the cases with high concentration of sediments (NSE = 0.68), where the existing sediment estimation models usually have poor performance.