Injuries are a leading public health priority within adolescent populations; however, few cross-national studies have examined their epidemiology over time. We described time trends in adolescent self-reported medically treated injury across 31 mainly European countries over 20 years, then explored whether observed temporal trends varied according to the prevalence of known behavioral risk factors. The data source included six cycles of the Health Behavior in School-aged Children study (2002-22; weighted n = 954 298, participants aged 11-15 years). Outcomes included self-reports of any and multiple medically treated injuries. Measures of behavioral risks included indicators of violence, substance use, and physical activity. Within countries reporting increases in injuries, variations in reported engagement in known behavioral risk factors were examined. Nearly half of adolescents reported at least one medically treated injury (47%-53% of boys; 38%-44% of girls) and nearly one quarter reported multiple injuries (23%-30% of boys; 16%-22% of girls). In the pooled analysis, temporal trends included increases in any medically treated injury for girls (all age groups) and boys (11 years only) and multiple injuries (boys and girls, all age groups). At the country-level, we observed more temporal increases than decreases. Increases in physical activity were observed coincident with observed injury trends. In one of the largest European analyses of its kind, we demonstrated the ongoing burden of adolescent injury. Persistently high rates of adolescent injuries are concerning, and the origins of temporal increases require an initial focus on sport and physical activity.

In the original BETTER (Building on Existing Tools to Improve Chronic Disease Prevention and Screening in Primary Care) intervention, a “Prevention Practitioner” meets with a participant aged 40–65 years to improve their uptake of prevention activities (e.g. cancer screening, physical activity). The BETTER intervention was found to be effective in a randomised control trial. We adapted BETTER to focus on a younger age group (adults aged 18–39 years) living with low income, a group known to have a higher prevalence of preventable cancers and chronic diseases than their higher-income peers. Here, we describe the development, piloting, and qualitative evaluation of the acceptability of the adapted BETTER intervention (“BETTER Life”) to inform future large-scale implementation research. To support adaptation of BETTER, we interviewed community residents from low-income areas in Durham Region, Ontario, Canada and healthcare program service providers across Canada who had knowledge about preventive care. We developed an adapted intervention, BETTER Life, and piloted it at the Durham Community Health Centre to understand acceptability and appropriateness. Pilot participants were contacted a minimum of 2 weeks afterward to complete a semi-structured interview and share their experiences with the intervention and preventive care. We conducted 22 adaptation interviews with 10 community residents and 12 healthcare service providers, 6 interviews with pilot participants (of 8), and a focus group with the two Prevention Practitioners. We found that participants felt that poverty contributes to poor health, including mental health; health education and interventions are often missing, unknown, or difficult to access in low-income communities; and that social networks are important for health. As a direct response to these issues, BETTER Life was seen as a unique, comprehensive program in the community that helps people set goals and reinforce healthy behaviours. However, many different strategies may be required to encourage engagement in the BETTER Life program. We developed BETTER Life by adapting the original BETTER to focus on adults aged 18–39 years living with low income, piloted it, and evaluated its acceptability and appropriateness. Although BETTER Life was seen as an important program, recruitment for the larger-scale study will be challenging as young adults struggle with competing life priorities and the social determinants of health.

Adolescent poor sleep is common and has been associated with unintentional injury risks. Yet the comparability of evidence is limited by differences in measures of sleep and injury implemented across studies. We examined the potential cross-national consistency of relationships between poor sleep and unintentional injury using self-reports from 239 816 adolescents (50.8% girls) in 46 countries collected using a common survey procedure. A cross-sectional study was conducted using nationally representative records from the 2017/2018 International Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study. The prevalence of sleep indicators (difficulties in falling asleep, insufficient sleep, social jetlag) and annual medically treated injuries (any, multiple) were described cross-nationally and by gender. Multivariable modified Poisson regression analyses were conducted within and across countries to test the consistency of associations between sleep and injury. 16.3%–48.3% of adolescents reported an indicator of poor sleep and 44.0% sustained any injury. We observed striking cross-national variations in sleep, yet consistent gendered patterns across countries [e.g. sleep difficulties more prevalent among girls vs. insufficient sleep (non-school days) more prevalent among boys]. Country-level models displayed relatively consistent and positive associations. Multi-country (pooled) models demonstrated a consistency of effects, with the strongest association observed between difficulties in falling asleep and multiple injuries (prevalence ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.55–1.61); these effects were especially pronounced in girls. Using standard indicators, this novel cross-national study demonstrated that poor sleep is a consistent risk factor for adolescent injuries. Given the recent epidemic of adolescent sleep problems, sleep hygiene represents a novel target for injury prevention.

BACKGROUND:One of the challenges facing UK general practice is the dwindling workforce, particularly in deprived or remote areas. One solution is to increase trainees' exposures to these environments by incentivising training in these locations. The Scottish Targeted Enhanced Recruitment Scheme (TERS) offered a one-time grant to general practice specialty trainees (GPSTs) in historically under-subscribed training programmes from 2017-2023. AIM:To evaluate the impact of the TERS grant on GPST recruitment across Scotland and within the targeted programmes. DESIGN & SETTING:Analytical observational study of recruitment and training data from NHS Education for Scotland. METHOD:Recruitment data from 2015-2023 was provided by NES. Odds ratios (ORs) of recruitment rates were calculated before and after the introduction of TERS, as well as between programmes based on their eligibility for TERS. RESULTS:The TERS recruited 734 individuals to GP specialty training posts across Scotland. In total, 1522 individuals were recruited to programmes not eligible for TERS in the same timeframe. The odds ratio of the effect of the TERS grant on recruitment across all programmes was 4.81 (95% confidence interval = 3.87 to 5.99). The OR for the TERS grant on recruitment within eligible programmes was 2.33 (95% CI = 1.74 to 3.12). CONCLUSION:We found a one-off £20 000 conditional grant was associated with a doubling of the odds of recruitment to historically under-filled GP specialty training programmes. Further work is needed to explore the effect of the TERS grant, and its withdrawal in 2024, on retention and the GP workforce.

AIM:The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) in symptomatic patients with different levels of anaemia severity or the presence of iron deficiency. METHOD:Symptomatic patients (2018-2021) from primary care were followed up prospectively for CRC for 2 years. The positive predictive values (PPV) for CRC of FIT subgroups were compared between anaemia severity groups and iron deficiency groups once stratified for symptom type and demographics. The diagnostic accuracy of FIT for CRC was investigated for different definitions of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA). RESULTS:A total of 17 538 symptomatic patients were investigated, including 310 with CRC (1.8%). In FIT < 100 μg haemoglobin (Hb)/g subgroups, the PPV for CRC was unchanged between anaemia severity levels (p > 0.05). In groups with FIT < 100 μg Hb/g, the PPV for CRC was unchanged in the presence of IDA, non-iron-deficiency anaemia and iron deficiency without anaemia (p > 0.05). In the anaemia and IDA subgroups investigated, FIT 10-19 μg Hb/g had a PPV of <3% for CRC and increasing the FIT cut-off to 20 μg Hb/g could have hypothetically saved 28.6% of colonoscopies. Including transferrin saturation in the definition of IDA increased the detection of CRC in FIT-negative patients (sensitivity 9.1% vs. 3.9%) but with a low CRC pick-up rate (PPV = 0.6%; 165 colonoscopies per CRC). Investigating FIT-negative functional IDA would increase the detection of CRC by 1.3% but with a PPV of 0.5%. CONCLUSION:The diagnostic accuracy of FIT is excellent regardless of the severity of anaemia, iron deficiency, symptom type or demographics. The FIT cut-off can be increased safely to 20 μg Hb/g irrespective of anaemia severity or iron deficiency. Altering the definition of IDA does not pragmatically increase the detection of CRC in negative/low FIT patients.

ObjectivesTo describe age and gender specific time trends in adolescent violence across 19 countries over 28 years.MethodsThe paper presents analysis of eight cycles of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) Study from 1994–2022, involving 789,531 children aged 11, 13, and 15. Indicators of violence included physical fighting, school bullying and cyberbullying (from 2018). Log-binomial regression models were used to test for linear temporal trends, with Generalized Estimating Equations used to account for clustering by country.ResultsSchool bullying perpetration and victimization declined over time in each age/gender group in most countries. Similar declines were reported for frequent physical fighting among boys (all ages) and girls (age 15 only). The prevalence of violent behaviour was almost universally higher in boys in the early cycles than in girls, but this gender difference attenuated over time. For cyberbullying, significant increases were observed since 2018 in all groups except age 15 girls in most countries.ConclusionThis analysis of a large cross-national dataset suggests a decline in traditional forms of adolescent violence. However, the increases in cyberbullying warrant further monitoring.

BackgroundFew studies examine suicidal ideation in the general population and who might act on suicidal thoughts. It is important to understand ideators, the largest group on the suicidality continuum.ObjectivesThis study examines factors associated with suicidal ideation among community-dwelling individuals, and sociodemographic, health and help-seeking factors associated with ideation accompanied by planning or suicide attempt ('ideation-with-action') compared to ideation alone.MethodsUsing the 2002 and 2012 Canadian Community Health Surveys - Mental Health cycles (CCHS-MH), this cross-sectional cohort study examined 14,708 Ontarians 15 years and older who answered questions about suicidal ideation, and compared characteristics between non-ideators, ideators with a plan or previous attempt, and ideators alone, with chi-square tests and logistic regression.Results2.1% of CCHS respondents reported past-year ideation alone (n = 302) and another 0.5% reported ideation with plan or past-year suicide attempt (n = 76). The risk profile of ideators compared to non-ideators was similar to that of ideators-with-action compared to ideators-without-action: male, younger, unpartnered, less educated, have lower income, no job, have a mood and anxiety disorder, a substance use disorder and seek help for mental health problems. Most ideators (65%) do not seek help, and those with a plan or previous suicide attempt are more likely to do so.ConclusionIdeators differ in profile in terms of whether they have ideation only, have made a plan or had previous attempts. Risk factors differentiating ideators from non-ideators are the same factors that further differentiate ideators-with-action compared to those with only ideation, suggesting the existence of a suicidality continuum and opening up the opportunity for targeting common risk factors in prevention efforts.

Objective To describe recommendations applicable to new diagnostic and screening tests brought to market in the UK as of 01 June 2023; and extract agreements, disagreements and gaps.Design Extant regulations, recommendations and guidelines for new diagnostic and screening tests applicable to new products placed in the UK market as of 01 June 2023. Non-English and references not applicable to new tests seeking market access in the UK on 01 June 2023 were excluded.Data sources PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection and Scopus; grey literature via EuropePMC and Google, government regulations and guidelines, and relevant professional societies. References of relevant included data were scanned for includable articles. Resultant data were thematically analysed and presented as a narrative scoping review.Eligibility for selecting studies PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection and Scopus were searched from 1/1/2018 for regulations, guidelines or recommendations for in vitro diagnositic tests as applied to the UK on 1/6/23. Relevant papers also had references searched.Results 943 items were initially identified with 892 excluded. Reference searching located a further 31 papers and 82 items were analysed. Seven themes were identified: regulation, companion diagnostics and lab developed tests, safety and evidence, test specific recommendations, data, innovation and recommendations for patients/the public. Wide agreement included the need to reduce bureaucracy and duplication; to mitigate to avoid unintended consequences of In Vitro Diagnostic Regulation. Disagreement over whether high-quality evidence should precede regulatory approval, or could be gathered as part of postmarketing surveillance emerged.Conclusions Industry, regulators, academics, patients representing a variety of views, should collaborate to work through areas of disagreement.

Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is responsible for one of the worst pandemics in human history. The causative virus, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), can invade host cells in multiple organs by binding the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) II expressed on the cell surface. Once inside the host cell, viral replication takes place, leading to cellular disruption and the release of signal molecules that are recognised by the innate immune system. Innate immunity activation leads to the release of proinflammatory cytokines and primes the adaptive immune system. The proinflammatory environment defends against further viral entry and replication. SARS-CoV-2 infection is thought to lead to myocardial injury through several mechanisms. Firstly, direct viral-mediated cellular invasion of cardiomyocytes has been shown in in vitro and histological studies, which is related to cellular injury. Secondly, the proinflammatory state during COVID-19 can lead to myocardial injury and the release of protein remnants of the cardiac contractile machinery. Thirdly, the hypercoagulable state of COVID-19 is associated with thromboembolism of coronary arteries and/or other vascular systems. COVID-19 patients can also develop heart failure; however, the underlying mechanism is much less well-characterised than for myocardial injury. Several questions remain regarding COVID-19-related heart failure, including its potential reversibility, the role of anti-viral medications in its prevention, and the mechanisms underlying heart failure pathogenesis in long COVID-19. Further work is required to improve our understanding of the mechanism of cardiac sequelae in COVID-19, which may enable us to target SARS-CoV-2 and protect patients against longer-lasting cardiovascular complications.

Objectives: Pressured healthcare resources make risk stratification and patient prioritisation fundamental issues for the investigation of colorectal cancer (CRC) in symptomatic patients. The present study uses machine learning algorithms and decision strategies to improve the appropriate use of colonoscopy. Design: All symptomatic patients in a single health board (2018-2021) proceeding to colonoscopy to investigate for CRC were included. Machine learning algorithms (NeuralNetwork, randomForest, Logistic regression, Naive-Bayes and Adaboost) were used to risk-stratify patients for CRC using demographics, symptoms, quantitative faecal immunochemical test (qFIT) and haematological tests. Decision curve analyses were performed to determine the optimal decision strategies. Results: 3776 patients were included (median age, 65; M:F,0.9:1.0) and CRC was identified in 217 patients (5.7%). qFIT > 400 mu g Hb/g was the most important variable (%IncMSE=78.5). RandomForrest had the highest area under curve (0.91) and accuracy (0.80) for CRC. When utilising decision curve analysis (DCA), 30%, 46% and 54% of colonoscopies were saved at accepted CRC probabilities of 1%, 2% and 3%, respectively. RandomForrest modelling had superior net clinical benefit compared to default colonoscopy strategies. Conclusions: MLA-derived decision strategies that account for patient and referrer risk preference reduce colonoscopy demand and carry net clinical benefit compared to default colonoscopy strategies.

Background The BETTER intervention is an effective comprehensive evidence-based program for chronic disease prevention and screening (CDPS) delivered by trained prevention practitioners (PPs), a new role in primary care. An adapted program, BETTER HEALTH, delivered by public health nurses as PPs for community residents in low income neighbourhoods, was recently shown to be effective in improving CDPS actions. To obtain a nuanced understanding about the CDPS needs of community residents and how the BETTER HEALTH intervention was perceived by residents, we studied how the intervention was adapted to a public health setting then conducted a post-visit qualitative evaluation by community residents through focus groups and interviews.Methods We first used the ADAPT-ITT model to adapt BETTER for a public health setting in Ontario, Canada. For the post-PP visit qualitative evaluation, we asked community residents who had received a PP visit, about steps they had taken to improve their physical and mental health and the BETTER HEALTH intervention. For both phases, we conducted focus groups and interviews; transcripts were analyzed using the constant comparative method.Results Thirty-eight community residents participated in either adaptation (n = 14, 64% female; average age 54 y) or evaluation (n = 24, 83% female; average age 60 y) phases. In both adaptation and evaluation, residents described significant challenges including poverty, social isolation, and daily stress, making chronic disease prevention a lower priority. Adaptation results indicated that residents valued learning about CDPS and would attend a confidential visit with a public health nurse who was viewed as trustworthy. Despite challenges, many recipients of BETTER HEALTH perceived they had achieved at least one personal CDPS goal post PP visit. Residents described key relational aspects of the visit including feeling valued, listened to and being understood by the PP. The PPs also provided practical suggestions to overcome barriers to meeting prevention goals.Conclusions Residents living in low income neighbourhoods faced daily stress that reduced their capacity to make preventive lifestyle changes. Key adapted features of BETTER HEALTH such as public health nurses as PPs were highly supported by residents. The intervention was perceived valuable for the community by providing access to disease prevention.Trial registration #NCT03052959, 10/02/2017.

Background Few studies examine suicidal ideation and its relationship with suicide attempts and health service use using a community sample. Objective To examine the association between suicidal ideation with (i) future mental health service use, and (ii) future suicide attempts, in a general population sample. Methods Using the 2002 and 2012 Canadian Community Health Surveys – Mental Health cycles linked with health administrative data, this study followed 14,708 Ontarians 15 years and older in a retrospective cohort study to examine patterns of mental health service use within 1 year, and suicide attempts within 5 years of self-reported suicidal ideation. Results A total of 2.1% (n=302) of all survey respondents reported suicidal ideation alone in the past year and another 0.5% (n=76) reported having ideation-with-action (i.e. ideation with planning or previous suicide attempt). Ideation-with-action was associated with a higher likelihood of future suicide attempts and future mental health service use, when compared to suicidal ideation alone. However, the majority of survey respondents who attempted suicide within the five-year follow-up period did not report a previous attempt or ideation at baseline. Conclusion While suicidal ideation is statistically significantly associated with greater likelihood of suicide attempt within five years, most attempters did not self-report ideation at baseline. Further study is needed to measure suicidal outcomes longitudinally to allow for dynamic expression of suicidal ideation as outcomes such as suicide attempts are measured. Those with ideation-with-action are more intense users of mental health services than those with ideation alone, indicating that care is reaching the more severe ideators. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The author(s) received no specific funding for this work. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: N/A I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes The data are held at Institute of Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario, Canada.

Sexual aggression (SA) by men toward women, including harassment and unwanted sexual touching, is ubiquitous in drinking venues. Focus groups with 38 male volunteers aged 19-26 were used to articulate men's perceptions, attitudes, and beliefs (PABs) related to SA in drinking venues for future development of a comprehensive questionnaire. Three cross-cutting themes relevant to prevention emerged from discussions structured using a 6-dimensional theoretical model: drinking venues culture with normative acceptance of SA as harmless fun, gender scripts that hold female targets responsible for SA, and alcohol attributions that reduce blame for intoxicated men perpetrators and increase blame for women targets.

Introduction Assessment of inpatient mortality risk in COVID-19 patients is important for guiding clinical decision-making. High sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) is a biomarker of cardiac injury associated with a worse prognosis in COVID-19. We explored how hs-cTnT could potentially be used in clinical practice for ruling in and ruling out mortality in COVID-19. Method We tested the diagnostic value of hs-cTnT in laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients (≥18 years old) admitted to the Royal Berkshire Hospital (UK) between 1st March and 10th May 2020. A normal hs-cTnT was defined as a value within the 99th percentile of healthy individuals (≤14 ng/L), and an elevated hs-cTnT was defined as >14 ng/L. Adverse clinical outcome was defined as inpatient mortality related to COVID-19. Results A total of 191 COVID-19 patients (62% male; age 66±16 years) had hs-cTnT measured on admission. Of these patients, 124 (65%) had elevated hs-cTnT and 67 (35%) had normal hs-cTnT. On a group level, patients with elevated hs-cTnT had worse inpatient survival (p = 0.0014; Kaplan-Meier analysis) and higher risk of inpatient mortality (HR 5.84 [95% CI 1.29–26.4]; p = 0.02; Cox multivariate regression) compared to patients with normal hs-cTnT. On a per-patient level, a normal hs-cTnT had a negative predictive value of 94% (95% CI: 85–98%) for ruling out mortality, whilst an elevated hs-cTnT had a low positive predictive value of 38% (95% CI: 39–47%) for ruling in mortality. Conclusions In this study cohort of COVID-19 patients, the potential clinical utility of hs-cTnT appears to rest in ruling out inpatient mortality. This finding, if prospectively validated in a larger study, may allow hs-cTnT to become an important biomarker to facilitate admission-avoidance and early safe discharge.

Background: CRB-65 (Confusion; Respiratory rate ≥ 30/min; Blood pressure ≤ 90/60 mmHg; age ≥ 65 years) is a risk score for prognosticating patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. However, a significant proportion of COVID-19 patients have normal chest X-rays (CXRs). The influence of CXR abnormalities on the prognostic value of CRB-65 is unknown, limiting its wider applicability. Methods: We assessed the influence of CXR abnormalities on the prognostic value of CRB-65 in COVID-19. Results: In 589 study patients (71 years (IQR: 57-83); 57% males), 186 (32%) had normal CXRs. On ROC analysis, CRB-65 performed similarly in patients with normal vs. abnormal CXRs for predicting inpatient mortality (AUC 0.67 ± 0.05 vs. 0.69 ± 0.03). In patients with normal CXRs, a CRB-65 of 0 ruled out mortality, NIV requirement and critical illness (intubation and/or ICU admission) with negative predictive values (NPVs) of 94%, 98% and 99%, respectively. In patients with abnormal CXRs, a CRB-65 of 0 ruled out the same endpoints with NPVs of 91%, 83% and 86%, respectively. Patients with low CRB-65 scores had better inpatient survival than patients with high CRB-65 scores, irrespective of CXR abnormalities (all p < 0.05). Conclusions: CRB-65, CXR and CRP are independent predictors of mortality in COVID-19. Adding CXR findings (dichotomised to either normal or abnormal) to CRB-65 does not improve its prognostic accuracy. A low CRB-65 score of 0 may be a good rule-out test for adverse clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients with normal or abnormal CXRs, which deserves prospective validation.

BACKGROUND:Strong variations in injury rates have been documented cross-nationally. Historically, these have been attributed to contextual determinants, both social and physical. We explored an alternative, yet understudied, explanation for variations in adolescent injury reporting-that varying access to medical care is, in part, responsible for cross-national differences.METHODS:Age-specific and gender-specific rates of medically treated injury (any, serious, by type) were estimated by country using the 2013/2014 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (n=209 223). Available indicators of access to medical care included: (1) the Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQ; 39 countries); (2) the Universal Health Service Coverage Index (UHC; 37 countries) and (3) hospitals per 100 000 (30 countries) then physicians per 100 000 (36 countries). Ecological analyses were used to relate injury rates and indicators of access to medical care, and the proportion of between-country variation in reported injuries attributable to each indicator.RESULTS:Adolescent injury risks were substantial and varied by country and sociodemographically. There was little correlation observed between national level injury rates and the HAQ and UHC indices, but modest associations between serious injury and physicians and hospitals per 100 000. Individual indicators explained up to 9.1% of the total intercountry variation in medically treated injuries and 24.6% of the variation in serious injuries.CONCLUSIONS:Cross-national variations in reported adolescent serious injury may, in part, be attributable to national differences in access to healthcare services. Interpretation of cross-national patterns of injury and their potential aetiology should therefore consider access to medical care as a plausible explanation.

Background: In COVID-19 patients, lymphocyte-CRP ratio (LCR) is a promising biomarker for predicting adverse clinical outcomes. How well LCR performs compared to conventional inflammatory markers for prognosticating COVID-19 patients remains unclear, which hinders the clinical translation of this novel biomarker. Methods: In a cohort of COVID-19 inpatients, we characterised the clinical applicability of LCR by comparing its prognostic value against conventional inflammatory markers for predicting inpatient mortality and a composite of mortality, invasive/non-invasive ventilation and intensive care unit admissions. Results: Of the 413 COVID-19 patients, 100 (24%) patients suffered inpatient mortality. On Receiver Operating Characteristics analysis, LCR performed similarly to CRP for predicting mortality (AUC 0.74 vs. 0.71, p = 0.049) and the composite endpoint (AUC 0.76 vs. 0.76, p = 0.812). LCR outperformed lymphocyte counts (AUC 0.74 vs. 0.66, p = 0.002), platelet counts (AUC 0.74 vs. 0.61, p = 0.003) and white cell counts (AUC 0.74 vs. 0.54, p < 0.001) for predicting mortality. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with a low LCR (below a 58 cut-off) had worse inpatient survival than patients with other LCR values (p < 0.001). Conclusion: LCR appears comparable to CRP, but outperformed other inflammatory markers, for prognosticating COVID-19 patients. Further studies are required to improve the diagnostic value of LCR to facilitate clinical translation.

Introduction: The ferritin–lymphocyte ratio (FLR) is a novel inflammatory biomarker for the assessment of acute COVID-19 patients. However, the prognostic value of FLR for predicting adverse clinical outcomes in COVID-19 remains unclear, which hinders its clinical translation. Methods: We characterised the prognostic value of FLR in COVID-19 patients, as compared to established inflammatory markers. Results: In 217 study patients (69 years [IQR: 55–82]; 60% males), FLR was weakly correlated with CRP (R = 0.108, p = 0.115) and white cell count (R = −0.144; p = 0.034). On ROC analysis, an FLR cut-off of 286 achieved a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 30% for predicting inpatient mortality (AUC 0.60, 95% CI: 0.53–0.67). The negative predictive values of FLR for ruling out mortality, non-invasive ventilation requirement and critical illness (intubation and/or ICU admission) were 86%, 85% and 93%, respectively. FLR performed similarly to CRP (AUC 0.60 vs. 0.64; p = 0.375) for predicting mortality, but worse than CRP for predicting non-fatal outcomes (all p < 0.05). On Kaplan–Meier analysis, COVID-19 patients with FLR values > 286 had worse inpatient survival than patients with FLR ≤ 286, p = 0.041. Conclusions: FLR has prognostic value in COVID-19 patients, and appears unrelated to other inflammatory markers such as CRP and WCC. FLR exhibits high sensitivity and negative predictive values for adverse clinical outcomes in COVID-19, and may be a good “rule-out” test. Further work is needed to improve the sensitivity of FLR and validate its role in prospective studies for guiding clinical management.