Responding to a novel pandemic took many governments unaware, and especially in federal countries the interplay among executives at different levels proved difficult and illustrated the inherent tensions in federations. Drawing on data covering the temporal evolution of the epidemiological, economic, and political situation at the cantonal level in Switzerland, we assess how federations dealt with the crisis situation. We find that while the federal government was in various instances accused of encroaching on the prerogatives of the cantonal governments, our empirical analysis of the latter's pandemic responses suggests that cantons equally engaged in burden-shifting and shirking. Our findings also suggest that nonpharmaceutical measures affected the fiscal measures taken by cantonal governments.
Do initiative and referendum campaigns enable voters to make coherent decisions? Do the dynamics of opinion formation differ across ballot measures? Despite extensive research on direct democratic processes, these questions remain underexplored. Using rolling cross-section data on two citizen-sponsored initiatives in California and two referendums in Switzerland, we examine the dynamics of voters' knowledge about party cues and arguments for and against ballot measures in the run-up to direct democratic votes. Moreover, we assess the extent to which these dynamics help voters to cast votes that are in line with their party cue and consistent with their position on arguments. The results present a nuanced picture: while campaigns increase voters' knowledge and help them to make more coherent choices, there is significant variation across ballots in knowledge acquisition and resulting degree of in-line and consistent voting.
This research note investigates whether question wording can help reduce vote overreporting in post-election surveys. It draws on a survey experiment embedded in the 2019 Swiss Election Study (Selects) and leverages a rich dataset of individually validated vote records for both respondents and non-respondents. This allows us to isolate vote overreporting from the other major source of turnout bias – namely, voter overrepresentation. Importantly, our empirical test represents an “extra-hard case," as the standard turnout question used in Selects already includes a face-saving preamble and response options designed to reduce social desirability bias. The three alternative wording formats – normalizing abstention, emphasizing the importance of the turnout question, and highlighting anonymity – perform slightly better than the standard version, though none reach conventional levels of statistical significance. The anonymity condition comes closest. These near-null results carry important implications for survey research and offer insights into improving the measurement of voter turnout, in Switzerland and beyond.
Existing research highlights age-related differences in internet voting but fails to disentangle the underlying effects. We conduct an age, period and cohort (APC) analysis of e-voting use on a unique set of registered, panel data covering 46 ballots in Switzerland between 2004 and 2019. Our findings reveal a joint influence of cohort and age effects on the likelihood of voting online. Voters born between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s display the highest e-voting rates, surpassing both younger and older cohorts. However, within these intermediate cohorts, e-voting usage declines notably with age. In contrast, age exerts little to no influence on e-voting among the youngest cohort (born in the 1990s) and the oldest cohorts (1930s and 1940s), with usage nearing zero for the latter group. These results refine our understanding of how age influences e-voting adoption and help to evaluate its potential to increase voter turnout.
This contribution examines the educational gap in voting behavior in Swiss direct democracy, moving beyond the well‐documented turnout differences to assess how education shapes citizens' choices. Drawing on survey data covering 300 votes between 1985 and 2020, we analyze the extent to which low‐ and highly‐educated voters diverge in their support for government positions. Results show that, on average, low‐educated voters are less supportive of the government, with substantial gaps in about one‐sixth of votes, particularly in referendums and on issues of immigration, asylum, and foreign policy. These findings highlight the salience of the “globalization cleavage,” whereby low‐educated voters, often perceiving external openness as a threat, oppose government‐backed policies. While the declining share of low‐educated voters limits their veto power, their opposition has played a role in some government defeats. The study highlights how education stratifies political preferences and may foster divides both among citizens and between citizens and elites.
How do voters make up their minds when voting on a citizens' initiative? Motivated reasoning theory makes a strong case for a partisan bias in the way citizens process information, but empirical evidence is mixed. We offer a more systematic test of the "party over policy" argument by integrating prior attitudes into the analysis of how voters respond to cues and policy information. Results of a survey experiment with pre-post measures of vote intentions on a California citizen initiative on online sports betting in 2022 provide support for partisan motivated reasoning. Regardless of the direction of policy information, voters who change their minds tend to follow the cue of their preferred party, even when the cue contradicts their initial vote intention. These results have important normative and practical implications.
Autrefois réputé pour sa grande stabilité, le système politique suisse a connu de profondes transformations au cours des trois dernières décennies. Ce livre se fait l’écho de ces changements, au travers d’un état des lieux complet et transdisciplinaire des connaissances sur la politique suisse en ce début de 21e siècle. Il traite tour à tour des institutions fondamentales (fédéralisme, neutralité, démocratie directe), des acteurs politiques étatiques (gouvernement, Parlement) et non étatiques (partis politiques, groupes d’intérêt), des processus de prise de décision, ainsi que des arcanes et des détenteurs du pouvoir. L’auteur adopte une approche résolument comparative et situe la politique suisse dans son environnement international et européen. D’une grande clarté, cet ouvrage vient pallier le manque d’un ouvrage de synthèse sur la politique suisse en langue française. Il s’adresse aux chercheuses et chercheurs et aux étudiantes et étudiants en sciences sociales et politiques, et plus généralement au public averti intéressé par la politique suisse.
Abstract Although the instruments of direct democracy are increasingly popular in a growing number of democracies, nowhere are they more developed than in Switzerland. Indeed, direct democracy is a fundamental institution of the Swiss political system, and greatly impacts on the legislative process, party competition, and political campaigning. In the last two decades alone (2001–2021), Swiss citizens voted on 166 legislative or constitutional proposals at the federal level. This chapter first describes the use of direct-democratic instruments (compulsory referendum, optional referendum, popular initiative) over time and the evolution of the electorate’s support for the government. Second, it reviews the emerging literature on direct-democratic campaigning, shedding light on the actors involved and varying coalitions, their campaign channels, and their resources, as well as the flux and resonance of their campaign messages. Third, it turns to the individual-level and contextual-level determinants of turnout and highlights the apparent contradiction between low turnout rates at the aggregate level and widespread selective participation at the individual level. Finally, it takes stock of classic and recent studies on opinion formation and voting decisions to assess if and under what circumstances voters can make informed and correct choices. The chapter concludes on a rather optimistic note regarding the quality of direct-democratic decision-making in Switzerland and indicates avenues for future research.
Under which conditions do politicians listen to scientific experts in a crisis? This study addresses this question by assessing how the Swiss government implemented 186 policy recommendations formulated by the National COVID-19 Science Task Force (STF) to combat the spread of the virus and alleviate its impact on the health system, society and economy during the first year of the pandemic. Results of multiple regression analyses show that the impact of problem pressure on the propensity of the government to implement experts' recommendations varies over time: it was considerably larger during spring 2020 than afterwards. We argue that this reflects a change in status of the STF during the second phase of the pandemic: it was distanced from the political-strategic level of the crisis management organization and its epistemic authority was increasingly questioned by political parties and interest groups. Policy scholars should thus give more attention to how rapidly the government's propensity to rely on expert advice can change.
Abstract The formulation of policies lies at the heart of any political system and is the crucial task assigned to decision makers. Analysing problems, identifying possible solutions, bargaining over draft proposals and bills, and—eventually—adopting a legislative act is the routine business of senior officials, interest groups, experts, political parties, and MPs. The purpose of this chapter is to present the state of knowledge on Swiss federal decision-making processes. It starts with a brief description of the institutional set-up of processes (initiation phase, pre-parliamentary phase, parliamentary phase, and referendum phase) and then turns to a finer-grained analysis of each decision-making phase and links between them. The analysis of these links is all the more important, since the multiplication of arenas is characteristic of the Swiss decision-making system; this is meant to make sure legislative proposals will proceed smoothly from one decision-making phase to the next. In particular, the risk of failure at the end of a process in a referendum vote has favoured the development of the preparatory phase of legislation. The chapter also assesses the respective weights of the main state and non-state actors participating in the process, highlights how institutions influence actors’ strategies, and examines changes in the characteristics of decision-making processes over time. On this basis, it evaluates the relevance of some claims that one finds in the contemporary literature, such as those regarding the ineffectiveness of the pre-parliamentary procedures, the ‘end of consensus’, or the slow pace and low innovation capacity of the Swiss decision-making process.
In the context of an ever growing importance and usage of referendums around the globe, this article provides a comprehensive approach to analyse the determinants of participation in direct democratic votes. In the absence of conclusive empirical evidence about which factors drive direct democratic participation, studies tend to adopt election-specific findings and assume the determinants of electoral turnout to equally apply for referendums. Yet, a strict empirical test of these numerous determinants in a referendum context is still missing. By examining aspects stemming from both election-specific and referendum-specific contexts, this article aims to first test the applicability of common electoral theories of turnout for direct democratic participation and second to analyse the relevance of each factor when simultaneously examined with other contextual and individual factors. This holistic approach represents reality as adequate as possible, that is, to consider various factors that may simultaneously influence the individual decision to vote. Next to individual variables, the analysis particularly focuses on two contextual levels, the community a person lives in and factors linked to a given referendum. The discussion and joint analysis of competing factors addresses the problem of underspecified turnout models, which commonly prevents a detailed assessment of the relative importance of the determinants of turnout. The study uses registered data from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, which provides official information about individual participation across 43 referendums in 45 communities. We match this individual data with referendum-related factors, such as campaign intensity and importance of the issues at stake, and community-level variables, such as wealth and urbanization. The results of our multilevel, cross-classified models show significant context-related effects, stemming mainly from the referendum and less from the community level. Still, the main driver of direct democratic participation is individual determinants, in particular citizens' past participation record.
Applying a consideration set approach to panel data, we contribute to the literature on intra-bloc voting by studying the vote for the Greens and the Social Democrats in the 2019 Swiss elections. Theoretically, because the two parties are ideologically and programmatically so similar, we argue that potential left-wing voters have a hard time making a final choice based on issue positions, and rely instead on their evaluations of parties' issue competence. The empirical tests partly support our expectations. Maintaining or shifting the attribution of competence on the environment to the Greens during the election campaign prompts potential left-wing voters to end up voting for the Greens; similar effects hold for the Social Democrats regarding social policy. Yet, this does not wipe out the impact of issue positions, which also help potential left-wing voters decide between the Greens and the Social Democrats. These results have important theoretical and practical implications.
Electoral participation research points to political interest as a strong and consistent predictor of voting, but overlooks the propensity of interested people to overreport in surveys. Vote validation studies demonstrate that vote overreporting exaggerates the association between political interest and turnout, but fails to highlight the pathways through which this bias occurs. To fill this gap and link these two strands of literature, we take a closer look at the relationships between political interest, likelihood of voting (as defined by one's actual voting record), and participation in given vote, while taking care of overreporting. Applying causal mediation models to a unique set of validated vote data, we show that the modus operandi of overreporting is both direct and indirect: A portion of politically interested people overreport their vote regardless of whether they usually vote or not. Yet, the indirect path also matters: Another portion of interested people do vote frequently, which prompts them to overreport if they for once abstain. This is consequential for the commonly found association between political interest and turnout.
Recent American studies that investigate the influence of money on the outcome of direct democratic votes find campaign spending effective for both supporters and challengers. Taking advantage of Switzerland's far-reaching experience with direct legislation, this article tests the role of money in a 'harder' context, where government plays an active role in direct democratic processes. It assesses the impact of campaign spending on 323 federal votes, and on a subset of 60 votes, offering finer-grained cantonal-level data. On the one hand, the results highlight the crucial role of the partisan coalition supporting the government for the outcome of votes; on the other hand, campaign spending is effective for both government and challenger camps, yet more so for the latter. Furthermore, the effects of government camp spending vary depending on the expected vote outcome and the difference in spending between both camps.
Empirical evidence suggests that e-voting has no measurable effects on turnout. However, existing studies did (or could) not look at e-voting effects on the individual level. We innovate by analyzing whether and to what extent the availability of e-voting fosters turnout among specific groups of citizens, and how this influences the equality of participation. To that end, we estimate Bayesian multi-level models on a unique set of official data on citizens’ participation covering 30 ballots between 2008 and 2016 in Geneva, Switzerland, which has the most far-reaching experience with e-voting worldwide. Despite the fact that e-voting was added to an easy-to-use form of postal voting, we find that offering e-voting has increased turnout among abstainers and occasional voters. By contrast, the effects of e-voting availability on the equality of participation are mixed with respect to the age cohorts and gender.
The chapter offers a systematic analysis of voting behaviour in the nine popular referendums that have punctuated Switzerland–EU relations since 1992. The chapter argues that voting behaviour is determined by two main groups of factors: socio-economic characteristics and political attitudes. Among the former, the level of education and urban/rural location are the most important ones whereas among the latter prominent are party identification and confidence in the government. These factors find clear echo in the analyses of the 2016 Brexit vote in the UK and indicate that citizens' attitudes to international cooperation are driven by some deep-seated factors impervious to short-term government action.
Law-making is a core function of parliaments in democratic systems. Yet, we still know little about the extent to which parliaments influence legislation and the reasons why MPs modify some bills more than others. We analyse the degree of bill amendments operated by parliament, by comparing bills before and after parliamentary deliberations with a text reuse approach. We postulate that MPs attempt to overcome the problem of limited processing capacity by prioritising certain bills over others. To this end, they use considerations related to institutional rules, attention dynamics and partisan politics. Empirically, we apply zero-inflated beta regressions on a dataset covering about 1,700 bills adopted from 1995 to 2015 in the Swiss Parliament. Moreover, we address the problem of observational equivalence affecting analyses of parliament's impact on law-making, by taking into account the government's anticipation strategy. Results highlight a reasonably high amendment activity, but with strong variations across bills. MPs change bills more if they are subject to direct democracy, rank high on the parliamentary agenda or if they attract media attention. The influence of the electoral cycle and coalition politics is not confirmed.
We contribute to the literature on short term changes in voters' party preferences (or intra-campaign party switching), by advancing a factor that has been neglected so far: Voters' perceptions about parties' issue competence. We develop a model of party switching that includes both classic predictors and issue ownership considerations. Moreover, in contrast to the usual single issue ownership conception focusing on the party deemed most competent to solve the most important problem, we argue that voters base their party choice on their perceptions of parties' competence on a variety of issues, i.e. on cumulative issue ownership. We test our model on panel data from the 2015 Swiss election study. The change in competence perceptions appears as a strong predictor of party switching: The higher the increase in the number of issues on which voters see a party as most competent during the campaign, the higher their likelihood to switch to that party.