European economies face the task of providing the necessary skills for the "twin transition" in a period of skill shortage. As a result, we may expect countries to reorient their labor market policy towards re-skilling. We look for evidence of a reorientation in two relevant policy fields: active labor market policy (ALMP) and adult education (AE). We explore general trends in both fields based on quantitative indicators and compare recent policy developments in four countries with strong ALMP and AE sectors: Denmark, France, Germany, and Sweden. We do not observe clear evidence of a general movement away from activation and towards re-skilling in ALMP. However, in AE, we identify several re-skilling initiatives that address skill shortages. Relying on insights from queuing theories of hiring and training, we argue that due to changes in the population targeted by ALMP, the locus of re-skilling policy is increasingly moving towards AE.

Societies are grappling with uncertainty about how to adapt to the emerging knowledge economy. Drawing on the public policy literature, we propose a new approach to studying the politics of ideas during long-term structural changes. We depart from existing scholarship that focuses on the politics of ideas during episodic crises, and instead focus on ideas that develop gradually in the context of "slow-burning" crises, using the example of the knowledge economy. In slow-burning crises, the processes of defining problems and identifying solutions unfold over different timeframes and lead to variation in coalition building because they involve a diverse set of actors promoting ideas at different levels of abstraction. Our cross-national quantitative analysis of national public debates shows that employers act as key problem brokers, proposing problem diagnoses that focus on efficiency challenges. In contrast, the actors proposing solutions are more diverse, promoting ideas centered on inclusion and governance.

Abstract In this introduction, we first discuss the differences between electoral systems and their effects. After briefly reviewing Rokkan’s (1970) two roads to electoral system choice, we explain how parties can manipulate electoral markets for partisan advantage. The following section summarizes our main argument, which emphasizes how parties’ ability to contain electoral threats relates to these parties’ preferences for electoral system choice. We argue that the use of containment measures provides a bridge that connects Rokkan’s two roads to electoral system choice. Subsequently, we discuss how we test our ‘neo-Rokkanian’ theory of electoral system choice empirically and why we focus on electoral system choice in first-wave democracies. The final section of this chapter previews the rest of the book.

Vocational education and training (VET) is hailed for easing skill shortages and fostering inclusion. However, little is known about the factors influencing the choice between VET and general education. We conducted a vignette experiment with more than 11,500 respondents in seven European countries, asking respondents to assign fictitious 15-year-olds either to VET or to general education based on achievement, motivation, and sociodemographic profiles. Respondents consistently channeled students with low grades and low motivation into VET. This bias weakened but persisted among respondents who view VET as offering favorable labor market prospects. Boys, working-class youth, and adolescents outside large cities were also steered toward VET, although achievement effects outweighed ascriptive ones. These patterns hold across countries and respondent subgroups, indicating that VET is widely perceived as the less desirable educational pathway. Our findings suggest that VET is caught in a downward spiral in which the relative unattractiveness of VET and academic drift reinforce each other.

Abstract The Party Politics of Electoral System Choice explores the strategic manipulation of electoral systems by political actors to maintain power. It delves into how electoral systems are more than mere governance tools; they are pivotal instruments that shape power dynamics. The book shows that the choice of an electoral system is one of the most consequential decisions in any democracy. The authors develop a ‘neo-Rokkanian’ theory of electoral system choice, arguing that incumbent parties try to contain electoral threats through district design and electoral alliances. When successful, incumbent parties resist electoral reform. However, this strategy leads to growing seat-vote distortions, which is why disadvantaged parties demand proportional representation. In the absence of any exogenous shock, however, disadvantaged parties will struggle to overcome the incumbent parties’ resistance to electoral reform. If incumbent parties cannot resort to containment measures, for example because the electoral geography is not suitable, they support the adoption of proportional representation. In this response, incumbent parties opt for a more inclusive electoral system that allows them to limit their seat losses in the face of a rapidly growing electoral threat that they cannot neutralize. Through a comprehensive analysis of first-wave democracies and a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, the authors reveal the broader patterns of strategic behaviour of political actors seeking to optimize their positions through electoral reform. This comprehensive study is essential for understanding the politics of electoral system choice, offering new insights into electoral geography, district design, electoral alliances, and party preferences for electoral reform.

Abstract This chapter examines district design in newly adopted proportional representation (PR) systems. Building on the electoral geography literature and emphasizing differences in district magnitude, we develop a theoretical argument on how the composition of reform coalitions influences district design in newly adopted PR systems. We expect parties with comparatively concentrated voter bases to try to create high entry barriers for other parties in these regions. Such parties design a large number of districts with low magnitude and oppose mergers with ideologically heterogeneous districts. By sheltering locally dominant parties from competition, these districts inherit some of the distorting features of the previous majoritarian representation (MR) systems. In contrast, parties with comparatively dispersed voter bases try to reduce entry barriers. Such parties push for large districts that guarantee the proportional translation of votes into seats, thus allowing them to win seats despite their dispersed voter bases.

This chapter presents our neo-Rokkanian account of electoral system choice. We argue that once an electoral threat emerges, established parties can respond in two ways. If established parties can resort to partisan districting or electoral alliances, they can contain the electoral threat, but these measures lead to growing seat-vote distortions. Moreover, given that these containment measures are primarily effective in majoritarian representation (MR) systems, established parties retain their attachment to MR, whereas parties disadvantaged by the resulting biases favour the adoption of proportional representation (PR). In contrast, if established parties cannot resort to partisan districting and electoral alliances, they support the adoption of PR. In this response, seat-vote distortions are not significant enough to contain the insurgent party. Partisan biases might even turn against the established parties. Consequently, the established parties opt for a more inclusive electoral system that allows them to limit their seat losses in the face of an electoral threat.

As the demand for information technology (IT) skills increases, occupational gender segregation has gained new relevance. A large body of research suggests that women are less attracted to technology-reliant occupations (things) than men are. Instead, women prefer occupations that emphasize social interactions (people). This study adds to the literature on the people versus things trade-off in occupational preferences by examining the underlying role of individuals' perceptions of IT. We argue that perceptions of IT are socially constructed, which allows for different presentations of occupational tasks and skill requirements. Surveying the occupational preferences of 2,500 eighth-grade students in Switzerland, we find that while girls prefer occupations with frequent social interactions but low reliance on IT, boys do not perceive a trade-off between working with people and working with things. Additionally, we show that boys and girls associate different features with IT and that these associations matter for their occupational preferences. Specifically, associating IT with frequent social interactions makes IT-reliant occupations more attractive for both genders, although girls are less likely than boys to associate IT with social interactions. Finally, we demonstrate that IT-reliant occupations become more attractive to girls when the presentation emphasizes the interactive and social aspects of work.

The twin transition to a digital and green economy has placed skill formation at the center of efforts to sustain competitiveness. Reforming skill formation systems poses enduring dilemmas on how to balance concerns about economic efficiency with social inclusion while securing employer commitment. The context of significant uncertainty brought on by the twin transition-placed at all levels, from individuals to firms to the state-amplifies the challenge of building effective skills ecosystems. We argue that the central question is no longer about whether governments should intervene but instead about how to govern skill formation under profound uncertainty. The task is to design institutions that are flexible enough to adapt to shifting technological and ecological demands while stable enough to sustain political coalitions and social inclusion. We argue that effective skills ecosystems for the twin transition must combine political stability with the capacity to embrace-rather than reduce-economic uncertainty.

Abstract This chapter provides case studies of electoral system choice in Belgium and Switzerland. Whereas in both countries, districts were adjusted at regular intervals, only in Switzerland did the institutional rules allow the incumbent party (the Liberals) to adapt districts for partisan gain. Moreover, whereas in Switzerland, the minority parties struggled to form effective electoral alliances, the Belgian minority parties formed a successful electoral alliance, which increasingly threatened the Conservatives’ political dominance. As a result, concerned about losing the high magnitude urban districts they needed to protect their majority, the Belgian Conservatives ultimately decided to adopt proportional representation (PR) proactively. In contrast, the Swiss Liberals, profiting from population growth in their urban strongholds and resorting to partisan gerrymandering to contain insurgent parties, opposed PR until the very end. PR in Switzerland was eventually introduced by extra-parliamentary means, namely a direct democratic vote that the Liberals could not prevent for constitutional reasons.

Abstract This chapter examines our argument, developed in the previous chapter, of how parties’ positions on electoral system change and the composition of reform coalitions depend on the type of electoral engineering available to incumbent parties. After identifying the positions of all parties in first-wave democracies on electoral system choice, we show that these party positions are systematically related to seat-vote distortions and the use of containment measures. Subsequently, we show how containment measures lead to different reform coalitions. In the final section of the chapter, we examine how external events have sometimes limited incumbent parties’ ability to rely on electoral engineering to contain insurgent parties, because they were (temporarily) weakened and thus unable to exercise control over the redistricting process, or because opposition parties demanded the removal of such containment strategies in return for political support during crisis periods.

How does technological change affect social policy preferences? We advance this lively debate by focusing on the role of dual vocational education and training (VET). Existing literature would lead us to expect that dual VET increases demand for compensatory social policy and magnifies the effect of automation risk on such demands. In contrast, we contend that dual VET weakens demand for compensatory social policy through three non-mutually exclusive mechanisms that we refer to as (i) material self-interest; (ii) workplace socialization; and (iii) skill certification. We further hypothesize that dual VET mitigates the association between automation risk and social policy preferences. Analyzing cross-national individual data from the European Social Survey and national-level data on education systems, we find strong evidence for our argument. The paper advances the debate on social policy preferences in the age of automation and sheds new light on the relationship between skill formation and social policy preferences.

This chapter examines our argument, developed in the previous chapter, on district design in newly adopted proportional representation (PR) systems. We expect parties with comparatively concentrated voter bases to try to create high entry barriers for other parties in these regions. Such parties design a large number of districts with low magnitude and oppose mergers with ideologically heterogeneous districts. In contrast, parties with comparatively dispersed voter bases try to reduce entry barriers. Such parties push for large districts that guarantee the proportional translation of votes into seats. By focusing on parties’ influence on district design, this chapter provides empirical evidence to show that geographical variation in partisan support is an important determinant of district magnitude within and across countries. We also demonstrate that parties that influenced the district design continue to benefit from seat-vote distortions in subsequent elections under the new PR system.

This article advances the debate on the agency of political actors in Comparative Political Economy (CPE) theories, focusing on Growth Model Theory (GMT). GMT expects stable coalitions around dominant economic sectors, which support growth strategies through lobbying and ideological influence. Despite the explicit goal to account for the domestic politics of growth models, GMT has not developed a politics model that captures agency, uncertainty, and conflict. It thus retains the core problems of the structuralist approaches common in CPE: the reification of policy processes as "blocs" or "coalitions," a presentism that infers preferences from outcomes, and a narrow focus on economic interests. We propose an alternative politics model based on cultural schemas nondeterministically guiding actors through uncertainty. This model can incorporate conflicting motives, interpretive frameworks, and cognitive limitations in the formation of growth strategies, while also accounting for these strategies' potential persistence. We illustrate our criticism through a case study of Germany's political debate on the European Economic and Monetary Union. Historical evidence reveals deep divisions among policymakers, shaped by uncertainty, geopolitics, national-identity concerns, and short-term opportunism in response to intraparty and electoral threats.

Enhancing economic competitiveness in the knowledge economy requires policies that align workforce skills with emerging demands. This paper examines the discursive battle over the skills of the future and argues that the idea of the knowledge economy works as a 'coalition magnet'. Policymakers use the 'knowledge economy' flexibly together with ideas about skill needs and social inclusion to assemble political coalitions that support distinct interpretations of the knowledge economy that vary over time and cross-nationally. We conduct a discourse network analysis, examining data from newspapers over the period 2005-2022. We find that in Denmark and Germany, high and general skill needs are a magnet for social inclusion ideas, fostering a discourse focused on a 'social' view of the knowledge economy. In contrast, in France and the UK, high and general skill needs are a magnet for ideas related to other skill concerns, particularly concerning mid-skilled workers. These combinations are driven by different actor constellations: private actors in Denmark and the UK, and the state in France and Germany, use the knowledge economy as a coalition magnet.

Abstract This chapter focuses on the politics of electoral system choice. Building on the relationship between containment measures and preferences for proportional representation (PR), this chapter develops our theoretical argument on how parties’ positions on electoral system change and the composition of reform coalitions depend on the type of electoral engineering available to incumbent parties. In this way, we also explain why the politics of PR adoption centred around the urban-rural cleavage in some countries, whereas in others, we observe urban-rural coalitions in favour of PR. In addition, we discuss why so many countries adopted PR after the First World War. We argue that incumbent parties’ resistance to reform was often broken by external events, most notably military conflicts. These external events removed incumbent parties or forced them to compromise with the political opposition.

Existing research argues that malapportionment primarily favours rural areas, resulting in conservative biases of electoral systems. In this paper, we provide a new perspective on the study of apportionment processes by identifying the institutional design under which malapportionment may favour other regions. Because of the geographical sorting of non-citizen residents, we argue that regions with high shares of non-citizen residents benefit from population-based apportionment, whereas the spatial sorting of non-citizens does not affect malapportionment in the case of citizen-based apportionment. Empirically, we use sub-national data from ten advanced democracies to forward evidence that differences in apportionment mechanisms and district-level shares of non-citizen residents systematically influence malapportionment. Our findings suggest that the impact of malapportionment on political representation and public policies may be more heterogeneous than previously thought.

What role do skill requirements play in gendered occupational preferences? Previous research has emphasized workplace characteristics such as salaries and family-friendly work hours. Less attention has been paid to skill requirements, even though they are an important part of job descriptions and serve as reference points for individuals’ assessment of their suitability for occupations. Using a choice experiment among Swiss adolescents who are in the process of choosing their vocational training occupation, this article demonstrates that women and men have surprisingly similar preferences for workplace characteristics. In contrast, skill requirements are better predictors of gender differences in occupational preferences. We find that technical skills are critical in explaining gendered occupational preferences, with occupations that rely more heavily on new technologies attracting fewer women. At the same time, both genders prefer occupations that emphasize social interactions, suggesting that the prominent ‘people’ versus ‘things’ distinction does not adequately capture gendered occupational preferences.

How do states create the skills needed for high technology economic activities that hold an increasingly important role in contemporary societies? Examining economic statecraft in the higher education sector, this article shows that the policies employed by governments to expand the supply of high skills vary depending on their economies' most advanced sectors. Governments who seek to meet the demand of the high-end services sectors pursue a strategy of "open-ended" higher education expansion. "Targeted" expansion of higher education, instead, is the preferred option for governments in countries characterized by large advanced manufacturing sectors. The latter strategy, however, is hampered by the presence of a partly private higher education system since the ability of governments to successfully pursue their strategies is mediated by the existing institutional framework in the realm of higher education policy. Empirically, the argument finds strong support through three country case studies-Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom-that allow to simultaneously leverage a most-similar and most-different research design.

Direct democratic institutions are often introduced by popular vote, but there is little research on what motivates voters to support these new instruments. Using a unique dataset on the ideological positions of voters and members of parliament, this article examines support for the introduction of the initiative right in a popular vote. We find that voters support the initiative right when they are inadequately represented in parliament. Moreover, the analysis shows that the voting behavior is consistent with voters understanding the strategic implications of adopting the popular initiative. We demonstrate that voters support its adoption if they are ideologically more proximate to the median voter than they are to the median legislator. Finally, the article shows that ideological distance matters for voters of the ruling party as well, which helps explain why a majority of voters support a political institution that limits the ruling party’s room for maneuver.