The White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation in Arizona manages their natural and cultural resources within a perpetually wildfire-risky environment. The Tribe’s values also extend beyond those of typical risk assessments to include the importance of cultural activities and sites, various recreational and revenue values, and culturally significant species. We worked with the Tribe to characterize a sample of these values and adapt them for use in a widely used risk assessment framework as part of an ongoing effort to improve wildfire mitigation and management with Tribes. We used a three-factor experimental design to conduct a sensitivity analysis related to the treatment of values included in the risk assessment. It focused on (1) the inclusion of relative importance or not, (2) the inclusion of relative extent or not, and (3) absolute versus scaled net value change for each value. Our results demonstrate a pattern of risk related to the values expressed by the Tribe with a focus on the Mount Baldy landscape, but the contributions of individual values to an aggregate measure of risk vary. Our assessments demonstrate an opportunity to incorporate Tribal values. Different depictions of risk can be used to accommodate diverse perspectives of decision-makers or managers, the values they are considering, and whether or not they are approaching risk in an emergency response or preparedness frame.

As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate to multiyear drought, with constant or diminishing reductions in productivity as drought duration increases. We quantified the combined effects of drought duration and intensity on aboveground productivity in 74 grasslands and shrublands distributed globally. Ecosystem acclimation with multiyear drought was observed overall, except when droughts were extreme (i.e., ≤1-in-100-year likelihood of occurrence). Productivity losses after four consecutive years of extreme drought increased by ~2.5-fold compared with those of the first year. These results portend a foundational shift in ecosystem behavior if drought duration and intensity increase, from maintenance of reduced functioning over time to progressive and profound losses of productivity when droughts are extreme.

Climate-driven forest mortality events have been extensively observed in recent decades, prompting the question of how quickly these affected forests can recover their functionality following such events. Here we assessed forest recovery in vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) and canopy water content (normalized difference infrared index) for 1,699 well-documented forest mortality events across 1,600 sites worldwide. By analysing 158,427 Landsat surface reflectance images sampled from these sites, we provided a global assessment on the time required for impacted forests to return to their pre-mortality state (recovery time). Our findings reveal a consistent decline in global forest recovery rate over the past decades indicated by both greenness and canopy water content. This decline is particularly noticeable since the 1990s. Further analysis on underlying mechanisms suggests that this reduction in global forest recovery rates is primarily associated with rising temperatures and increased water scarcity, while the escalation in the severity of forest mortality contributes only partially to this reduction. Moreover, our global-scale analysis reveals that the recovery of forest canopy water content lags significantly behind that of vegetation greenness, implying that vegetation indices based solely on greenness can overestimate post-mortality recovery rates globally. Our findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of forest ecosystems to future warming and water insufficiency, accentuating the need to prioritize forest conservation and restoration as an integral component of efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. Satellite data show declining global forest recovery from tree mortality since the 1990s, driven by warming and water scarcity. Canopy water recovers slower than greenness, stressing the need for a multifaceted approach to assessing recovery.

Shifts in precipitation regimes due to climate change are significantly impacting dryland ecosystems, including vegetation composition and structure. Unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) are widely used to monitor vegetation, but whether models built to predict changes in these characteristics are robust under extreme precipitation regimes is unclear. We aimed to predict key vegetation characteristics under three precipitation regimes (ambient, drought, and water addition) and assess model performance across these moisture conditions. We also evaluated how models built under ambient conditions predicted vegetation characteristics under extreme precipitation regimes. UAV surveys were conducted at five sites subject to long-term precipitation manipulation along an elevation gradient in northern Arizona, United States (U.S.). Twenty-one vegetation indices and point cloud data from the UAV imagery were used to develop models to predict vegetation structure and composition characteristics. Model performance and transferability were assessed via error and directional bias within each treatment (i.e., in situ) and from ambient to precipitation treatments (i.e., model transfer). UAV-based models accurately measured vegetation characteristics across all regimes, but maximum height showed significantly higher error under drought conditions. Models developed under ambient precipitation and applied to extreme precipitation treatments exhibited significant differences in the error and directional bias, indicating they may not be suitable under climate change. UAV-based models are effective for monitoring vegetation characteristics but may lose accuracy under extreme precipitation regimes expected under climate change. This study emphasizes the need to improve model transferability and suggests refining landscape monitoring approaches to consider extreme changes in precipitation and associated vegetation responses.

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) is a problem across the western United States, where it outcompetes and replaces native grass species, alters habitats, and increases the risk of wildfires. Cheatgrass greens up earlier in the growing season compared to native grasses, making it classifiable with multi-temporal and multi-spectral remote sensing. We mapped cheatgrass at different scales in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem using 10-m Sentinel-2 imagery, 3-m PlanetScope, and 10-cm Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS) imagery. We compared these maps to field-collected data to address 1) variation in seasonal phenological signals of native and cheatgrass patches, 2) the influence of scale on detectability and map accuracy across our study area. Model accuracy to predict cheatgrass presence increased with imagery resolution and ranged from 83

Background Fuel monitoring data are essential to evaluate wildfire risk, plan management activities and evaluate fuel treatment effects. Terrestrial light detection and ranging (lidar) is a field-based 3D scanning technology with great potential to reduce labor-intensive field measurements and provide new depths of vegetation structure data. Aims To facilitate the integration of terrestrial lidar into fuel monitoring programs, we developed a model, training process, and Python program that produces canopy fuel, surface fuel and terrain metrics commonly used in fire behavior and fire risk modeling. Methods We estimated canopy and surface fuel metrics from terrestrial lidar using a semi-empirical model incorporating physically based modeling of leaf area density and occlusion and a non-destructive model calibration process leveraging Bayesian regression. We compared lidar-derived fuel estimates with conventional fuel estimates across diverse conditions in semi-arid shrubland, woodland and forest in Arizona. We also compared estimates using single- and multiple-scan modes. Key results In single-scan mode, our lidar-derived fuel estimates were significantly related to conventional estimates of total canopy fuel load, maximum canopy bulk density, downed surface fuel load and standing surface fuel load. Implications Our methods provide opportunities to increase the scalability of fuel monitoring to better understand wildfire risk and treatment effectiveness.

Utility-scale solar energy (USSE) is rapidly expanding and expected to compose the largest source of renewable-generated electricity in the United States and globally over the coming decades. Lands in the hot Desert Southwest (Chihuahuan, Mojave, Sonoran, and San Joaquin Deserts) are increasingly selected for USSE development because of their high solar irradiance. The Desert Southwest supports high biodiversity and provides many ecosystem services but is vulnerable to USSE disturbance and simultaneous stress from aridification and other growing land-use pressures. In this review, a framework is presented for predicting the effects of USSE development on plants and wildlife by linking disturbance types associated with USSE construction and operation to the traits and response strategies of species and guilds. Case studies from representative Desert Southwest species and guilds of conservation concern are used to: review known effects of USSE, predict unknown effects with the trait-based framework, and discuss mitigation strategies. This framework predicts that species with trait plasticity and broad ecological niches will be capable of exploiting USSE development, while species with specific habitat requirements and narrow niches will be more vulnerable. Opportunities for mitigation during development and operation that may lessen these effects are identified. This work is intended to inform USSE management decision-making and long-term planning, as well as encourage new research to test predicted effects and responses.

Mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) constitutes a major fraction of global soil carbon and is assumed less sensitive to climate than particulate organic carbon (POC) due to protection by minerals. Despite its importance for long-term carbon storage, the response of MAOC to changing climates in drylands, which cover more than 40% of the global land area, remains unexplored. Here we assess topsoil organic carbon fractions across global drylands using a standardized field survey in 326 plots from 25 countries and 6 continents. We find that soil biogeochemistry explained the majority of variation in both MAOC and POC. Both carbon fractions decreased with increases in mean annual temperature and reductions in precipitation, with MAOC responding similarly to POC. Therefore, our results suggest that ongoing climate warming and aridification may result in unforeseen carbon losses across global drylands, and that the protective role of minerals may not dampen these effects..

Large-scale restoration is intended to promote ecological recovery. Improvements in plant and microbial conditions, however, may slow or even reverse in late succession. To better understand long-term restoration outcomes and underlying drivers of successional pathways, we tracked plant, bacterial and fungal, and soil conditions across a 40-year shrub plantation that was intended to stabilize desertified land in northern China. We found that planted Haloxylon ammodendron shrubs developed and then subsequently became degraded after 30-40 years. Bacterial abundance and alpha-diversity were much higher than those of fungi, but no significant differences in composition and structure were found in different plantation ages. In contrast, the dominant taxa of fungal communities shifted from symbiotroph and saprotroph species towards pathotroph species with increased soil nutrients in the plantation chronosequence after two decades. The changes in fungal dominant species led to a transition in microbial network structure and function, with an increase in negative linkages among taxa that began in the middle stages of succession. Changes in fungal community structure had direct and indirect negative effects on shrub leaf physiology, root activity, and biomass. Our results highlight the preceding role of a breakdown in soil microbial community composition and network structure on the degradation of shrub performance in long-term desert succession. Our study emphasizes the importance of understanding soilmicrobial-plant linkages on restoration outcomes, and mechanisms that can slow or reverse the recovery of ecosystems.

Earth harbours an extraordinary plant phenotypic diversity(1) that is at risk from ongoing global changes(2,3). However, it remains unknown how increasing aridity and livestock grazing pressure-two major drivers of global change(4-6)-shape the trait covariation that underlies plant phenotypic diversity(1,7). Here we assessed how covariation among 20 chemical and morphological traits responds to aridity and grazing pressure within global drylands. Our analysis involved 133,769 trait measurements spanning 1,347 observations of 301 perennial plant species surveyed across 326 plots from 6 continents. Crossing an aridity threshold of approximately 0.7 (close to the transition between semi-arid and arid zones) led to an unexpected 88% increase in trait diversity. This threshold appeared in the presence of grazers, and moved toward lower aridity levels with increasing grazing pressure. Moreover, 57% of observed trait diversity occurred only in the most arid and grazed drylands, highlighting the phenotypic uniqueness of these extreme environments. Our work indicates that drylands act as a global reservoir of plant phenotypic diversity and challenge the pervasive view that harsh environmental conditions reduce plant trait diversity(8-10). They also highlight that many alternative strategies may enable plants to cope with increases in environmental stress induced by climate change and land-use intensification.

Background Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) conservation populations may be at risk from wildfire and post-fire debris flows hazards.Aim To predict burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow hazard classifications to CRCT conservation populations before wildfires occur.Methods We used remote sensing, spatial analyses, and machine learning to model 28 wildfire incidents (2016-2020) and spatially predict burn severity from pre-wildfire environmental factors to evaluate the likelihood (%) and volume (m3) hazard classification of post-fire debris flow.Key results Burn severity was best predicted by fuels, followed by topography, physical ecosystem conditions, and weather (mean adjusted R2 = 0.54). Predictions of high or moderate burn severity covered 1.1 (15% of study area) and 1.5 (19% of study area) million ha, respectively, and varied by watershed. Combined high or moderate debris flow hazard classification included 80% of stream reaches with conservation populations and 97% of conservation population point nodes.Conclusions Predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow indicated moderate to high hazard for CRCT conservation populations native to the Green and Yampa rivers of the Upper Colorado River Basin.Implications Future management actions can incorporate predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow to mitigate impacts to CRCT and other at-risk resource values before a wildfire occurs.

Perennial plants create productive and biodiverse hotspots, known as fertile islands, beneath their canopies. These hotspots largely determine the structure and functioning of drylands worldwide. Despite their ubiquity, the factors controlling fertile islands under conditions of contrasting grazing by livestock, the most prevalent land use in drylands, remain virtually unknown. Here we evaluated the relative importance of grazing pressure and herbivore type, climate and plant functional traits on 24 soil physical and chemical attributes that represent proxies of key ecosystem services related to decomposition, soil fertility, and soil and water conservation. To do this, we conducted a standardized global survey of 288 plots at 88 sites in 25 countries worldwide. We show that aridity and plant traits are the major factors associated with the magnitude of plant effects on fertile islands in grazed drylands worldwide. Grazing pressure had little influence on the capacity of plants to support fertile islands. Taller and wider shrubs and grasses supported stronger island effects. Stable and functional soils tended to be linked to species-rich sites with taller plants. Together, our findings dispel the notion that grazing pressure or herbivore type are linked to the formation or intensification of fertile islands in drylands. Rather, our study suggests that changes in aridity, and processes that alter island identity and therefore plant traits, will have marked effects on how perennial plants support and maintain the functioning of drylands in a more arid and grazed world. In global drylands, soils tend to be more fertile beneath tree, shrub and grass islands. Soil fertility was greater beneath taller and wider plants but was unaffected by either grazing pressure or the type of herbivore.

Vegetation greening has been suggested to be a dominant trend over recent decades, but severe pulses of tree mortality in forests after droughts and heatwaves have also been extensively reported. These observations raise the question of to what extent the observed severe pulses of tree mortality induced by climate could affect overall vegetation greenness across spatial grains and temporal extents. To address this issue, here we analyse three satellite-based datasets of detrended growing-season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI GS ) with spatial resolutions ranging from 30 m to 8 km for 1,303 field-documented sites experiencing severe drought- or heat-induced tree-mortality events around the globe. We find that severe tree-mortality events have distinctive but localized imprints on vegetation greenness over annual timescales, which are obscured by broad-scale and long-term greening. Specifically, although anomalies in NDVI GS (ΔNDVI) are negative during tree-mortality years, this reduction diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions (that is, 250 m and 8 km). Notably, tree-mortality-induced reductions in NDVI GS (|ΔNDVI|) at 30-m resolution are negatively related to native plant species richness and forest height, whereas topographic heterogeneity is the major factor affecting ΔNDVI differences across various spatial grain sizes. Over time periods of a decade or longer, greening consistently dominates all spatial resolutions. The findings underscore the fundamental importance of spatio-temporal scales for cohesively understanding the effects of climate change on forest productivity and tree mortality under both gradual and abrupt changes.

Biocrusts are critical biological components of drylands and play an important role in soil carbon (C) cycling. However, the effect of biocrusts on soil CO2 exchange across global gradients of temperature and moisture is poorly understood. Moreover, their response to climate change remains highly uncertain. Bayesian hierarchical meta-analyses were performed on 47 published studies to quantify the impact of biocrusts on net soil exchange (NSE) of carbon- the difference between respiration and photosynthesis. Meta-analyses were also used on 23 studies to examine the effects of experimental warming on NSE in biocrusts. Meta-regressions further explored the thermal and wetness sensitivities of biocrust NSE and potential adaptation of biocrust responses to climate change. The development of biocrusts in dryland soils significantly increased NSE by 66.5 [22.2, 112.2] g C m−2yr−1, despite seasonal fluctuations, indicating a net loss of carbon to the atmosphere. Experimental warming, on average, increased biocrust NSE by 22.9 [-0.1, 40.8] g C m−2yr−1 per °C. However, across the spatial climate gradient, aridity limited the effects of warming, while high temperature decreased the thermal sensitivity of biocrust NSE, thus supporting the thermal adaptation of biocrusts. These results emphasize the critical role of biocrusts in modulating soil carbon exchange in response to climate warming across drylands, with particularly high thermal sensitivity in cool and moist regions. This highlights the need to incorporate biocrusts into global carbon budgets and models for a comprehensive understanding of their impact on the carbon cycle.

Invasions by non-native plant species after fire can negatively affect important ecosystem services and lead to invasion-fire cycles that further degrade ecosystems. The relationship between fire and plant invasion is complex, and the risk of invasion varies greatly between functional types and across geographic scales. Here, we examined patterns and predictors of non-native plant invasion following fire across the western United States. We specifically analyzed how the abundance of non-native plants after fire was related to fire characteristics and environmental conditions, such as climate, soil, and topography, in 26,729 vegetation plots from government networks and individual studies. Non-native plant cover was higher in plots measured after wildfires compared to prescribed burns or unburned plots. The post-fire cover of non-native species varied by plant functional type, and only the cover of short-lived (i.e., annual and biennial) forbs and short-lived C3 grasses was significantly higher in burned plots compared to unburned plots. Cool-season short-lived grasses composed most of the non-native post-fire vegetation, with cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) being the most recorded species in the dataset. Climate variables were the most influential predictors of the cover of non-native short-lived grasses and forbs after fires, with invasion being more common in areas with drier summers and a higher proportion of yearly precipitation falling in October through March. Models using future projected climate for mid (2041–2070) and end (2071–2100) of century showed a potential for increasing post-fire invasion risk at higher elevations and latitudes. These findings highlight priorities for mitigation, monitoring, and restoration efforts to reduce post-fire plant invasion risk across the western United States.

Increases in the abundance of woody species have been reported to affect the provisioning of ecosystem services in drylands worldwide. However, it is virtually unknown how multiple biotic and abiotic drivers, such as climate, grazing, and fire, interact to determine woody dominance across global drylands. We conducted a standardized field survey in 304 plots across 25 countries to assess how climatic features, soil properties, grazing, and fire affect woody dominance in dryland rangelands. Precipitation, temperature, and grazing were key determinants of tree and shrub dominance. The effects of grazing were determined not solely by grazing pressure but also by the dominant livestock species. Interactions between soil, climate, and grazing and differences in responses to these factors between trees and shrubs were key to understanding changes in woody dominance. Our findings suggest that projected changes in climate and grazing pressure may increase woody dominance in drylands, altering their structure and functioning.

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes.However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly.To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey has created a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for lands in the western United States (U.S.).Oil and gas development on public lands is a long-standing and substantial component of local and regional economies and has expanded in recent decades, particularly on public lands in the western U.S.This development is associated with extensive networks of pipelines, roads, and processing facilities, across which reclamation is Federally mandated following initial well pad development ("interim" reclamation) and once resource extraction is complete ("final" reclamation).Reclamation is critical for recovering ecological services to energy-affected lands, including vegetation productivity, wildlife habitat, water and air quality, and soil stability (for example, resistance to wind and water erosion).However, reclamation of oil and gas affected lands in the western U.S. has proved challenging due to an array of regulatory and environmental factors, such as minimally developed soils, short growing seasons, herbivory, high winds, invasive species, rugged terrain, and in particular, arid climates associated with low total precipitation, high evapotranspiration rates, and highly variable precipitation patterns.We compiled and summarized journal articles, government reports, technical reports, proceedings, and theses and dissertations relevant to oil and gas reclamation.We constrained our search to products published on or before December 31, 2020 but did not limit our search by a starting date; the earliest product resulting from this effort was published in March 1969.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Intensification of drought and wildfire associated with climate change has triggered widespread ecosystem stress and transformation. Natural resource managers are on the frontline of these changes, yet their perspectives on whether management actions match the scale and align with the severity of ecosystem responses to improve outcomes are not well understood. To provide new insight, a new conceptual framework that linked scale and severity was tested by conducting interviews and surveys of staff associated with natural resource management on the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States (U.S.), which contains the highest concentration of public lands in the contiguous U.S. Results indicate that drought was experienced more frequently than wildfire, and both stressors were happening at large scales and moderate to abrupt timeframes with a high degree of impact to ecosystems. Ecosystem responses were perceived to increase in severity under future climate change with limited capacity to recover, and a majority of resource managers expressed that they had low control to shape these trajectories. Although management strategies to address drought and wildfire were well recognized, adaptation-specific actions remained unclear or had limited financial and staffing resources to support implementation. Additional effort could help close a growing misalignment between management actions and natural resource responses, including effective science communication, refined information tailored to meet adaptation goals at management-relevant spatiotemporal scales, and opportunities for adaptive management that can proactively address intensification of drought and wildfire.