UK and European private companies follow less stringent reporting standards compared to public ones, with simpler measurement rules. While extensive research focuses on public companies, the impact of these standards on private firms remains underexplored. Our study examines prediction errors using approximately 1.5 million observations of UK private companies for the period from 2006 to 2022, covering a wide range of economic conditions. We distinguish between micro-sized, small, medium-sized, and large private companies. For micro- and small firms, prediction errors for future cash flow are only slightly larger than those of public companies, supporting the European Union 2013 directive to minimize reporting burdens on small businesses. However, medium-sized and large private companies exhibit errors more than double those of public firms, indicating less informative disclosures. These results are robust in predicting beyond the next period and in times when financial distress is high, and therefore will be useful to both investors and creditors.

We investigate firm corruption in China by extracting a measure of corruption from published financial statements and use this to demonstrate that corruption impacts the trading decisions of insiders. Specifically, we show that insiders in firms that are more corrupt trade more aggressively, and they are more willing to trade on their private information as evidenced by the increased informativeness of their trades, in respect of both purchases and sales. This link between firm corruption and trade informativeness is robust to the inclusion of a number of factors that are known to influence the informativeness of such trades, including trade characteristics, insider characteristics and the firm's information environment. We also consider the effect of the appointment of a new CEO or Chair. Overall, corruption related trade informativeness holds consistently for both purchases and sales. Finally, we show that this measure of corruption is robust to the inclusion of several alternative indicators of corporate misconduct.

In the context of global climate change threatening human survival, and in a post-pandemic era that advocates for a global green and low-carbon economic recovery, conducting an in-depth analysis to assess whether green finance can effectively support low-carbon economic development from a dynamic perspective is crucial. Unlike existing research, which focuses solely on the average effects of green credit (GC) on carbon productivity (CP), we introduce a non-parametric panel data model to investigate GC's impact on CP across 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2021, verifying a significant time-varying effect. Specifically, during the first phase (2003-2008), GC negatively impacted CP. In the second phase (2009-2014), this negative influence gradually diminished and transformed into a positive effect. In the third phase (2015-2021), GC continued to positively influence CP, although this effect became insignificant during the pandemic. Further subgroup analysis reveals that in the regions with low environmental regulations, GC did not significantly boost CP throughout the sample period. In contrast, in the regions with high environmental regulations, GC's positive effect persisted in the mid to late stages of the sample period. Additionally, compared to the regions with low levels of marketization, the impact of GC on CP was more pronounced in highly marketized regions. This indicates that the promoting effect of GC on CP depends on strong support from environmental regulations and well-functioning market mechanisms. By adopting a non-parametric approach, this study reveals variations in the impact of GC on CP across different stages and under the influence of the pandemic shock, offering new insights into the relationship between GC and China's CP.

UK private companies follow less stringent reporting standards than public ones. Despite extensive research on public companies' financial reporting, little has been done for private firms, especially in the UK. We conducted prediction error tests on about 1.5 million observations on UK private companies from 2006-2022, distinguishing between the different classes of private companies: micro, small, medium-sized, and large. We found that errors in predicting future cash flow one period ahead for micro and small companies were only slightly larger than those of public companies. For medium-sized and large private companies, the errors were more than double, suggesting less informative disclosures. These results are robust for predicting beyond the next period and for times when financial distress is high. The impact of regulatory revisions for private companies in 2016, based on International Financial Reporting Standards for Small and Medium-sized Companies, is minor.

在构建科技创新与制度创新能力"双轮驱动"下中国省域创新驱动力测度指标体系的基础上,利用"纵横向"拉开档次法编制2006—2018年省域创新驱动力指数,借助Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和空间M arkov链方法考察中国创新驱动力的发展水平、地区差异及演进趋势.研究发现:无论从创新驱动力指数还是科技创新和制度创新分项指数看,中国创新驱动力建设自2006年以来取得了显著成效,但是,创新驱动力的空间非均衡性也十分明显,并显现出极化特征;创新驱动力的地区差异呈现"先扩大,后缩小"之势,地区间差异一直是总体差异的主要来源,并且在解释制度创新不平衡发展中的主导地位尤为凸显;省域创新水平呈现俱乐部趋同现象,邻域创新环境的优劣对其周边省份创新驱动力的移动具有异质性影响.相邻省份科技创新能力的适度差距更有利于空间溢出效应产生,但制度创新的空间溢出不存在"吸收能力门槛".

This paper aims to comprehensively analyze the relationship between energy price and green energy innovation in China, and first studies the impact of energy price on China’s green energy innovation, then further investigates the moderating role of energy price distortion in the price–innovation relationship, especially in the context of lagging energy marketization level in the process of China’s transition from planned economy to the market economy. Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017, this paper provides a measurement of green energy innovation capacity through the number of “alternative energy production” and “energy conservation” patents. Our results show that energy price has a significantly positive impact on China’s green energy innovation, no matter the number of green energy patent applications or the number of green energy patent grants is used as the proxy of green energy innovation capacity. However, there exists heterogeneity related to the influence of energy price on green energy innovation. Specifically, energy price has a noticeable role in promoting green energy innovation in central and western China, but not in eastern China. Further research results show that energy price distortion significantly reduces the inducing effect of energy price on green energy innovation. Meanwhile, the distortion degrees of energy price in the central and western regions of China are significantly lower than that in the eastern region, which explains to a large extent why the inducing effect of energy price on innovation is more prominent in the central and western regions.

提升制造业软国际竞争力至关重要,本文构建了包括品牌创新、人力资源、企业文化和制度环境4个维度的评价指标体系,并借助纵横向拉开档次法对2009—2016年全球39个主要国家的制造业软竞争力水平进行评价与分析.结果显示,发达国家的制造业软竞争力指数明显高于发展中国家,美国、德国等制造大国的竞争优势明显.中国的制造业软国际竞争力在考察期内迅速提升,国家排位由第31名升至第21名.分要素来看,中国在4个维度中的表现均有不同程度提升,特别是企业文化的提升尤为明显,但是制度环境和人力资源的表现较为滞后,是我国制造业建设中需要着力改善的重要内容.

The impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution on health outcomes, especially those of children, have attracted worldwide attention. Based on the PM2.5 concentration data of 94 countries, including the least developed countries estimated by satellite observations in nearly 20 years, this paper investigated the impacts of PM2.5 pollution on under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and analyzed the role of public service in moderating the PM2.5-mortality relationship. Results indicated that PM2.5 pollution had significantly positive influence on U5MR globally. However, the effects of fine particulate pollution on child mortality were heterogeneous in terms of their significance and degrees in countries with different levels of development. A further test based on panel threshold model revealed that public service, measured by public education spending and sanitation service, played a positive moderating role in the PM2.5-mortality relationship. Specifically, when the ratio of public education expenditure in GDP of a country exceeded the first threshold value 3.39% and the second threshold value 5.47%, the magnitude of the impacts of PM2.5 pollution on U5MR significantly decreased accordingly. When the percentage of population with access to improved sanitation facilities in a country was over 41.3%, the health damaging effects were reduced by more than half. This paper fills the current gap of PM2.5 research in least developed countries and provides key policy recommendations.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">研究目标:探讨国家创新驱动力的有效测度方法,考察国家创新驱动力的经济高质量发展效应和机制。研究方法:运用2009～2016年40个主要国家的数据,编制创新驱动力指数,通过面板数据模型考察其对经济高质量发展的影响。研究发现:一国的创新驱动力与经济发展水平密切相关,发达国家的创新驱动力指数明显较高。中国的创新驱动力指数在考察期内特别是2014年以来迅速提升,但是制度创新建设明显滞后于科技创新水平。无论是创新驱动力综合指数,还是科技创新和制度创新指数,抑或是各二级分项指数,均对一国全要素生产率具有显著正向影响。无论是科技创新指数还是其下4项分项指数,均与制度创新指数存在正向交互效应。研究创新:突破了国家创新驱动力测度中只局限于科技创新的不足,在创新的经济效应分析中将科技创新和制度创新同时纳入考察。研究价值:为中国推进创新型国家建设,更好发挥创新在促进经济高质量发展中的作用提供政策参考。</span>

In this paper, we evaluate the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on inflation expectations in China by using a MF-VAR approach. We find that China's inflation expectations are sensitive to policy-related uncertainty shocks. Meanwhile, there exist heterogeneous impacts of national economic policy uncertainty shocks on inflation expectations in China. Overall, the inflation expectations in China rise in response to the European, Japanese and China's own uncertainty shocks. Whereas, the reaction of the inflation expectations in China to the uncertainty shocks made by both the US and BRICS (except China and South Africa) is negative. The results also reveal that the policy-related uncertainty shocks are dominant driving force of the inflation expectations in China especially during the post-crisis period. In addition, the contribution of China's domestic uncertainty shocks is remarkably higher than that of foreign uncertainty shocks.

在遵循评估指标自身数据质量可靠性高、与现实经济活动高度关联、能够比较全面反映经济发展状况三大原则的基础上,选取太空灯光亮度、电力消费量、货物周转量和金融机构中长期贷款额构建修正“克强指数”,估算中国省域GDP增长率的真实值.基于1995 ～ 2013年30个省份的数据,在验证修正“克强指数”可以作为评估中国地区GDP数据准确性有效指标的基础上,结合官方统计的GDP增长率争模型拟合得出的GDP增长率,发现考察期内各省份GDP增长率的年均统计误差为0.55个百分点,其中17个省份的误差在0.5个百分点以内,反映中国地区GDP增长数据总体可靠.此外还发现,北京、上海、广东、浙江等部分经济发达省份近几年的GDP增速出现了持续低估的现象,这可能与现代服务业等“新经济”未被完全纳入GDP统计有关.

Purpose Since the UK Companies Act 1981, different reporting standards have developed for different classes of company to reduce the reporting burden on non-listed companies. There are now different regimes for listed, large private, medium-sized, small and micro companies. This strategy raises the issue of whether earnings quality across the different classes of company is comparable. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the smoothness of earnings to measure reporting quality across the different types of companies from 2006 to 2013, based on 514,000 observations. Smoothness is an indicator of poor quality. Findings The authors find that listed companies have the highest earnings quality, closely followed by small and micro companies. In contrast, large private and medium-sized companies have much lower earnings quality. Overall, the authors find companies which switch between reporting regimes have lower earnings quality. The authors also find that earnings quality is not affected by the small company exemption from audit. Research limitations/implications Companies filing abbreviated accounts are excluded since they do not file an income statement. The recent revisions to UK GAAP (FRS 102 and FRS 105) are not examined due to insufficient data. Practical implications The Financial Reporting Council’s (FRC) strategy of reducing the financial reporting and auditing obligations for small companies seems not to have significantly affected earnings quality. However, the FRC may need to review the reporting requirements of large private and medium-sized companies and also the option of companies to switch between reporting regimes; in these settings earnings quality appears to be weaker. Originality/value The paper studies the effect of earnings quality across the different reporting regimes in the UK. Novel and important features of the study are that the sample covers a wide variety of small and micro companies which have not been analyzed previously; the results are disaggregated by year, for assurance that the results are not driven by a single rogue year; and the authors also address the small company exemption from audit, and the flexibility of non-listed companies to switch between regimes.

PurposeThis study investigates the interrelationships between competitions in different banking markets and shadow banking for the Chinese banking industry over the period 2003–2017. The current study also examines the determinants of competition in different banking markets and the factors influencing the size of shadow banking.Design/methodology/approachBank competition is measured by the Boone indicator, while the relationship between bank competition and shadow banking is examined through a three-stage least square estimator.FindingsThe findings suggest that a larger volume of shadow banking leads to a decline in the level of competition in the deposit market, loan market and noninterest income market, while an increase in the level of competition in the loan market, deposit market and noninterest income market leads to an expansion of shadow banking. The authors find that higher bank risk and higher developed of stock market reduce the competitive condition in the loan market, and the competition in the deposit market will be enhanced by higher levels of banking sector development and higher levels of inflation, but bank diversification will reduce the level of competition in the deposit market. The authors further find that higher bank profitability and higher stock market development reduce bank competition in the noninterest income market. Finally, the results show that larger bank size and higher development of stock market reduce the size of shadow banking in China, but higher economic growth increases the size of shadow banking.Originality/valueThis is the first piece of research investigating the relationship between bank competition and shadow banking. This will also be the first piece of research examining the determinants of competition in different banking markets and also the factors influencing the size of shadowing banking in China.

The macro-financial structure risk is an important part of financial risks. This paper constructs the sub-indices of foreign financial assets risks, monetary liquidity risks and mismatch structure risks for integration into the macro-financial structure risk index according to the index principle. The data of related indicators from January 2007 to April 2015 of China are collected for measuring each sub-index and their subsequent summarization into the total index of the macro-financial structure risk, and the trends of each sub-index and the total index are analyzed. After that, statistical tests and practical analysis are conducted to study the effectiveness, sensitivity and relevance of the macro-financial structure risk index. The practical analysis of the index shows that the macro-financial structure risks of China are on the rise, with prominent tendency characteristics, that the characteristics of each sub-index and their impact on the macro-financial structure risks are different, that the macro-financial structure risk index can be expected to play a leading role for predicting the macro economy and that the sub-indices are correlated to the total index to different degrees, despite their common action effects.

Prior to 2007, in order to encourage international investment, China operated two parallel financial reporting systems, one based on Chinese GAAP for domestic investors and the other based on IFRS for international investors. In 2007, after a series of reforms to harmonise Chinese GAAP with IFRS, this system was replaced by a single set of standards for both classes of investor. We evaluate the impact of this significant change on earnings quality for stocks quoted on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges for the period 2003-2013. Using tests of earnings smoothing and early loss recognition, we identify three key features. Firstly, earnings quality improved consistently over the period. Secondly, prior to the reforms of 2007, IFRS earnings were of superior quality to Chinese GAAP earnings. A third and important finding is that earnings quality under Chinese GAAP after the 2007 reforms is comparable to that under pre-2007 IFRS.

在构建涵盖生态经济、生态环境、社会发展和保障支撑4个要素的评价指标体系的基础上,以2008-2012年全球55个主要国家为对象,展开生态文明建设国际比较研究.结果表明:发达国家的生态文明发展水平要明显高于发展中国家,并且在金融危机以来实施“绿色新政”的作用下,主要发达国家的领先优势还在继续扩大.中国生态文明建设水平和国际排名在样本期均有所提升,但2012年的排位为第44位,与发达国家差距较大,在发展中国家中处于中游水平,生态文明建设仍然任重道远.从构成要素看,我国生态经济和生态环境表现不佳,基本排在后5位.社会发展和保障支撑的表现相对优异,特别是随着生态制度的完善、民众生态意识的觉醒以及科技创新能力的提升,我国生态文明建设的保障支撑能力近年来明显增强,进一步提升生态文明建设水平具有较大潜力.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">利用省际大中型工业企业面板数据,考察了知识产权保护对我国工业创新能力的影响。结果显示,知识产权保护与新产品和专利产出均存在倒U形关系,但超过95%的样本位于拐点左侧,强化知识产权保护能够加快我国绝大多数地区工业创新能力的提升。同时,知识产权保护对发明专利的促进作用要显著大于实用新型和外观设计专利。对其影响渠道的进一步研究还表明,强化知识产权保护在激励企业自主研发、提高国外技术引进效果、促进FDI知识溢出等均发挥了正向作用,并且知识产权保护对企业自主研发的引致作用在发明专利中尤为明显。本文从多个层面证实了知识产权保护在当前我国工业创新能力特别是核心技术能力提升中的积极作用。</span>

This article summarizes and analyses civil explosive industry development status in 2014 systematically, furthermore, researches deeply the industry tendency and problems existed, which is based on the statistical data in civil explosive industry in 2014. Relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to the problems, considering current economic status in our country.

在扩展知识生产函数的基础上,利用中国30个省市区的面板数据,从制度环境、要素条件、需求环境和产业环境四个方面,考察了体现创新环境的11个分项指标对区域创新能力的影响,结果表明:反映创新环境的多数指标都对我国创新能力有正向影响,但影响弹性基本都小于知识存量和研发人员投入.然而,不同地区的研究结果差异很大,除了知识产权保护、金融机构支持和人力资本外,体现创新环境的其他变量都对东部地区创新能力有显著正向影响,并且私有化程度、信息基础设施和产业集聚的作用还明显大于研发投入,但是创新环境对中西部地区创新能力的提升未起到支撑作用.创新环境建设的差别在很大程度上解释了我国创新能力巨大的地区差异.