Climate change will cause shifts in ecosystems and habitats by the end of the century, which will affect forested areas at the southern edge of the boreal biome such as the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Minnesota. We use a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach and climate projections for three future time periods, 2040-2059, 2060-2079, and 2080-2099 to generate predictions for forest composition, deer, and outdoor recreation, under climate change for the Laurentian Mixed Forest. We find that Minnesota's current boreal forest, dominated by aspen-birch and spruce-fir, will shift to a deciduous forest dominated by oak-hickory by 2100. With climate change and the change in forest composition, deer are predicted to have large increases. Most recreation categories are predicted to increase under climate change, driven largely by warmer temperatures, but cross-country skiing is predicted to suffer large declines. Our study provides predictions on outdoor recreation using a systems modeling framework with multiple interacting drivers (climate change, forest composition, deer populations), incorporating multiple types of variables (exogenous, endogenous, latent, compound), and models with and without a reciprocal interaction between forest composition and deer.

A well-functioning society requires well-functioning institutions that ensure prosperity, fair distribution of wealth, social participation, security, and informative media. Such institutions are built on a foundation of trust. However, while trust is essential for economic success and good governance, interconnected mechanisms inherent in weakly governed market economies tend to undermine the very trust on which such success depends. These mechanisms include the intrinsic tendency for inequality to grow, media to boost perceived unfairness, and self-interest to gain rewards at the expense of others. These mechanisms, if left unchecked, allow wealth concentration to result in state capture where institutions facilitate further wealth concentration instead of the promoting the common good. As a result, people may become alienated and untrusting of fellow citizens and of institutions. Several democracies now experience such dynamics, the United States being a prime example. We discuss ways in which well-functioning democracies can design institutions to help avoid this social trap, and the much harder challenge of escaping the trap once in it. Successful cases such as the ability of Scandinavian democracies to maintain high-trust, and the US progressive era in the early 20th century provide instructive examples.

Climate change hazards pose significant risks to vulnerable populations, particularly refugees residing in camps within environmentally sensitive areas. This study assesses climate and disaster risks in refugee-hosting districts in Rwanda using GIS-based risk mapping, decision science tools (AHP), remote sensing, and econometric analysis. The findings reveal spatial variability in hazard exposure across camps, with Mahama and Mugombwa refugee camps experiencing the highest flood risks, while Gihembe, Kiziba, and Kigeme camps are most susceptible to landslides. Between 2013 and 2021, landslides resulted in the damage of 324 hectares of cropland in Gihembe district and caused 110 fatalities in Kiziba’s district in 2016 alone. The study also finds that Mahama camp is highly vulnerable to drought, reflecting national data indicating that 4.2 million Rwandans were affected by droughts between 1974 and 2018. In addition, Kiziba camp exhibits severe soil erosion, with up to 19 million tons of annual soil loss in its watershed area. This erosion, exacerbated by deforestation due to firewood harvesting and construction material collection, weakens slope stability, intensifying landslide risks and increasing sediment transport into local water sources, thereby impacting water quality. Our results support recent disaster management decisions by the Government of Rwanda and UNHCR, including the closure of Gihembe camp in 2021 due to landslide risks and the relocation of vulnerable populations from Kigeme camp due to erosion-induced ravine formation. While these interventions reduce immediate risks, continued efforts are needed to enhance camp resilience, strengthen early warning systems, and integrate nature-based solutions into long-term disaster risk management.

Disturbances, such as hurricanes, fires, droughts and pest outbreaks, can cause major changes in ecosystem conditions that threaten Nature's contributions to people (ecosystem services). Climate change is intensifying disturbances, posing risks to ecosystem services. To assess those risks, we develop a flexible, functional trait-based approach to quantify ecological, ecosystem service and economic impacts from disturbance regimes. Our broadly applicable approach integrates knowledge from disturbance ecology and ecosystem service valuation, and we highlight the pitfalls of using either perspective in isolation. We demonstrate our approach by quantifying impacts to timber and recreational enjoyment from extreme windstorms in a midlatitude forest. While we predict large potential losses to these services under historical and future disturbance regimes, common ecological metrics of compositional and biomass stability are inadequate for predicting these impacts. We then provide a roadmap for applying our approach across different social-ecological systems, illustrating the approach for crop pollination, flood hazard mitigation and cultural values from coral reefs-which all face intensifying disturbances. This study highlights and provides tools to address the pressing need to consider disturbances in future ecosystem service assessments.

This article reviews a wide range of models that integrate ecological and economic systems, presenting Earth-Economy (EE) modeling as a general approach for sustainable management in these contexts. EE models combine global, general equilibrium economic models with high-resolution Earth system models and include two-way linkages between Earth systems and the economy, enabling data-focused decision support for sustainability. We conduct a systematic review of models related to this domain, create a typology of relevant models, and discuss the interconnections between them. We include a detailed definition of EE modeling and discuss how the relevant models can be integrated and extended to improve the comprehensiveness with which we model sustainability. This review shows both the importance of and associated challenges, but also the high demand, for this type of model.

In ecology, carrying capacity is typically defined as the maximum number of organisms of a particular species that can be supported indefinitely in a given environment. However, this way of defining carrying capacity has been hard to apply in regional sustainability and management. Here, we propose that carrying capacity is the ability of ecosystems to sustainably provide maximum ecosystem services without damaging the ecosystem in a given region. That is, carrying capacity is multidimensional. We apply this approach to evaluate carrying capacity based on the ecosystem service provision, including ecosystem processes and functions such as soil conservation, carbon sequestration and water purification, and constituents of human well-being such as grassland productivity and water retention on the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that carrying capacity of water retention, water purification, soil conservation, grassland forage production and carbon sequestration were estimated at 267.80 billion m3, 12.93 million tons, 34.24 billion tons, 97.70 million SU and 0.16 billion tons. Overall, grassland forage production is severely overloaded, with a loading ratio of 1.50. The loading ratios of water retention and water purification are 0.05 and 0.02, loading ratio of soil conservation is 0.80, loading ratio of carbon sequestration is 0.83, and all of them are not overloaded. However, soil conservation and carbon sequestration were severely overloaded in 10 and 47 counties, respectively. The overloading varies with carrying capacity and loading ratios in different counties. 108 and 54 counties are severely overloaded and overloaded respectively, and 34 counties are not overloaded.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020 was a reminder of society’s vulnerability in the face of natural upheavals, leading to widespread unemployment and increased poverty. Simultaneously, human activities have precipitated large-scale environmental degradation and catastrophic climate change. Here, we conduct a global-scale, 186-country analysis examining the potential impact of basic income (BI) as a two-pronged solution to both sustainability and social resilience. We reveal BI’s potential to bolster economies, particularly in times of crisis. To lower the huge barrier imposed by implementation costs, we suggest a diverse array of strategies aimed at financing BI, strategically designed to concurrently alleviate economic insecurity while fostering nature conservation. We suggest that BI implementation is feasible and could be a potent tool in addressing the twin challenges of decreasing worldwide poverty while reducing environmental degradation—a nexus that arguably constitutes the paramount global challenge of our times.

Climate change will likely cause changes in the composition of forests worldwide, with consequent impacts on forest ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. In northeastern Minnesota, climate change will likely cause a shift from boreal to temperate forest by the end of the century. Such a shift will affect species populations such as deer and outdoor recreation, a valuable ecosystem service with over $4 billion in annual expenditures in hunting, fishing, and wildlife viewing. In this paper, a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework is used to model four key variables, climate change, deer, forest composition, and outdoor recreation, as an interactive system with data from the Laurentian Mixed Forest (LMF) region of Minnesota. A series of SEM models of increasing complexity are used to draw out the individual and system level effects. The results show: a strong empirical relationship between forest composition and recreation; climate affects both forest composition and recreation, mainly through temperature effects; deer affects both forest composition and recreation. A systems modeling approach like SEM is needed because there are important complex interactions, such as the effect of deer on forest composition and of forest composition on deer.

Yield gaps, here defined as the difference between actual and attainable yields, provide a framework for assessing opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Previous global assessments, centred on a single year, were unable to identify temporal variation. Here we provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps have widened steadily over most areas for the eight annual crops and remained static for sugar cane and oil palm. We developed a three-category typology to differentiate regions of ‘steady growth’ in actual and attainable yields, ‘stalled floor’ where yield is stagnated and ‘ceiling pressure’ where yield gaps are closing. Over 60% of maize area is experiencing ‘steady growth’, in contrast to ∼12% for rice. Rice and wheat have 84% and 56% of area, respectively, experiencing ‘ceiling pressure’. We show that ‘ceiling pressure’ correlates with subsequent yield stagnation, signalling risks for multiple countries currently realizing gains from yield growth.

AbstractFew disagree that we should pass on the Earth in good shape to future generations, and many scientists want their work to contribute to that goal. Recent work has shown that hopelessness stands in the way of people taking an active attitude. At the same time, it is becoming clear what can be done about that: providing compelling visions of attractive futures and highlighting feasible pathways. Currently, science and the humanities are not well designed for this task. Practices that stand in the way of a more holistic change‐making approach include proposal‐based funding, paralyzing rigor requirements, and a focus on explanation rather than action. Removing those barriers may require culture shifts, a notoriously difficult and slow kind of change. Meanwhile, realistic inspiring future scenarios can be developed by bringing diverse thinkers together in environments where time, space, and immediate outcomes are not pressing.

Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community’s ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action.

Environmental and resource challenges continue to grow in magnitude and complexity. Addressing these challenges requires expansive thinking to formulate and implement effective solutions. Transdisciplinary research, considered the pinnacle of integration across disciplines, offers a powerful approach for addressing complex questions. Three key themes emerge from transdisciplinary research in the context of environmental economics: ( a ) There are degrees of transdisciplinarity that contribute to new emergent approaches and on-the-ground application through behavior and practice changes; ( b ) there are many examples of environmental economics research that exhibit characteristics of transdisciplinary research, but aspects of transdisciplinarity could be expanded in many cases; and ( c ) there are various barriers (cross-disciplinary, individual, and systemic) facing economists in the application of a transdisciplinary approach. While transdisciplinary research comes with its own barriers, environmental economists could generate large potential gains in formulating and implementing solutions by exploring the transdisciplinary mindset and approach.

Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature’s contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature’s contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature’s contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.

Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community's ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action.

Climate change will shift the composition of northern Minnesota forests from boreal to temperate by the end of the century. This shift in forest composition will likely affect outdoor recreation, a valuable ecosystem service and a key economic driver for the region. In this context, the objective of our paper is to empirically examine the relationship between forest composition and recreation. We analyze the effect of changes in forest composition for seven forest types on seven types of recreation using a lognormal pooled panel regression model for Minnesota's Laurentian Mixed Forest Province. Earlier research showed forest composition affected recreation at the level of broad groups of broadleaved or coniferous species. We find a statistically significant empirical association between forest composition and recreation at the forest type level (forest types within those broad groups). This relationship varies across forest types and recreation categories. For example, big game hunting is positively related to elm-ash-cottonwood and white-red-jack pine and negatively associated with aspen-birch. We find individual forest types within broad groups of broadleaved or coniferous forests, have different relationships with recreation, so that these broad groups are not sufficient in capturing the effect of forest composition on recreation. Our results are of interest in the context of current shifts in forest composition caused by climate change, which could also affect recreation. Our findings suggest adding a forest composition lens to existing policies could facilitate strategies for more effective recreation management and climate change adaptation.

Transformational change is possible, but design and implementation must seek to avoid lock-in.

Combating environmental degradation requires global cooperation. We here argue that institutional designs for such efforts need to account for human behavior. The voyage of the Titanic serves as an analogous case to learn from, and we use behavioral insights to identify critical aspects of human behavior that serve as barriers or opportunities for addressing the challenges we face. We identify a set of public goods that may help us mitigate identified negative aspects of human behavior, while leveraging the positive aspects: standards and best practices, mechanisms for large-scale coordination, and curation of information to raise awareness and promote action. We use existing international organizations, providing at least one of these capacities, as cases to learn from before applying our insights to existing institutional solutions for global environmental protection. We identify institutional design features that, if adapted to better account for human behavior, could lead to more effective institutional solutions.

Land use change is crucial to addressing the existential threats of climate change and biodiversity loss while enhancing food security [M. Zurek et al., Science 376, 1416-1421 (2022)]. The interconnected and spatially varying nature of the impacts of land use change means that these challenges must be addressed simultaneously [H.-O. Pörtner et al., Science 380, eabl4881 (2023)]. However, governments commonly focus on single issues, incentivizing land use change via "Flat-Rate" subsidies offering constant per hectare payments, uptake of which is determined by the economic circumstances of landowners rather than the integrated environmental outcomes that will be delivered [G. Q. Bull et al., Forest Policy Econ. 9, 13-31 (2006)]. Here, we compare Flat-Rate subsidies to two alternatives: "Land Use Scenario" allocation of subsidies through consultation across stakeholders and interested parties; and a "Natural Capital" approach which targets subsidies according to expected ecosystem service response. This comparison is achieved by developing a comprehensive decision support system, integrating new and existing natural, physical, and economic science models to quantify environmental, agricultural, and economic outcomes. Applying this system to the United Kingdom's net zero commitment to increase carbon storage via afforestation, we show that the three approaches result in significantly different outcomes in terms of where planting occurs, their environmental consequences, and economic costs and benefits. The Flat-Rate approach actually increases net carbon emissions while Land Use Scenario allocation yields poor economic outcomes. The Natural Capital targeted approach outperforms both alternatives, providing the highest possible social values while satisfying net zero commitments.

This study uses Zillow's ZTRAX property transaction database to investigate variation in hedonic price effects of water clarity on single-family houses throughout the United States. We consider five spatial scales and estimate models using different sample selection criteria and model specifications. Our results indicate considerable spatial heterogeneity both within and across the four U.S. Census regions. However, we also find heterogeneity resulting from different types of investigator decisions, including sample selection and modelling choices. Thus, it is necessary to use practical knowledge to consider the limits of market areas and to investigate the robustness of estimation results to investigator choices. (JEL Q51).