In recent decades, many European countries have experienced significant family changes, including an increase in the proportion of non-marital births. To understand these family changes in European and Western societies, numerous theories have emerged, accompanied by a wealth of empirical literature. However, the spatial dimension of family change is less studied than other aspects. Moreover, borders can play a role in the diffusion process by acting as barriers. Very few studies have examined the relationship between borders and the spatial diffusion of family changes. This article fills this gap by investigating the role of borders in the spatial diffusion of non-marital births between Belgium and France. The border region between these countries is a key area for analysing these relationships. Using local vital statistics data, the study compares the barrier intensity of different borders (national and linguistic) by measuring the absolute difference in non-marital birth rates. The results indicate a spatial diffusion in both countries, with borders acting as barriers. The intensity of this barrier role varies over time, peaking in the mid-1990s. The national border is a stronger barrier than the language border, with the strongest barrier being the French-Belgian border in Flanders. By showing how borders influence the pace and the extent of spatial diffusion of non-marital births, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the spatial dynamics of demographic behaviour in Western Europe.

Entre mars 2020 et février 2021, la pandémie Covid-19 a généré près de 22 000 décès en Belgique, soit l’épisode le plus meurtrier de son histoire démographique depuis la Seconde Guerre Mondiale. Dans une perspective comparative des différentes vagues de la pandémie, cet article a pour objectif principal de dresser le bilan de la surmortalité liée à la Covid-19 selon l’âge, le sexe, la situation de ménage et le groupe social. Les analyses se basent sur des données agrégées fournies par STATBEL (office belge de statistiques). Des indicateurs de surmortalité sont calculés afin de comparer la situation de l’année 2020 avec celle observée durant la période de référence 2015-2019. A partir des données du Registre national, des tables de mortalité par sexe, région et groupe social ont été calculées. Elles permettent d’estimer la perte d’espérance de vie en 2020 par rapport à 2019 et la contribution spécifique des différents groupes d’âge à cette diminution.

Context The year 2020 was marked by the Covid-19 pandemic. In Belgium, it led to a doubling in deaths, mainly grouped into two periods. This article aims to compare the relative importance of predictors and individual and spatial determinants of mortality during these two waves to an equivalent non-pandemic period and to identify whether and to what extent the pandemic has altered the sociodemographic patterns of conventional mortality. Methods The analyses relate to all-cause mortality during the two waves of Covid-19 and their equivalent in 2019. They are based on matching individual and exhaustive data from the Belgian National Register with tax and population census data. A multi-level approach was adopted combining individual and spatial determinants. Results Mortality patterns during the pandemic are very similar to those observed outside the pandemic. As in 2019, age, sex, and household composition significantly determine the individual risk of dying, with a higher risk of death among the oldest people, men, and residents of collective households. However, their risk of death increases during the Covid period, especially in the 65–79 age group. Spatial information is no more significant in 2020 than in 2019. However, a higher risk of death is observed when the local excess mortality index or the proportions of isolated or disadvantaged people increase. Conclusions While the Covid pandemic did not fundamentally alter conventional mortality patterns, it did amplify some of the pre-existing differences in mortality.

Tuberculosis (TB) was the leading cause of death in Western countries during the 18th and 19th centuries, rising with industrialization and urbanization, then declining in the 20th century due to improved living conditions, public health measures, and medical advances. While the epidemiology of TB in Belgium has been well described, the spatial and temporal features are less well known. In this article, we examine TB mortality data from “Le Mouvement de la Population et de l’État Civil” at the municipality level between 1889 and 1991. We map TB mortality trends using an intermediate degree of aggregation of 19th and 20th century municipalities across six periods. The results reveal important spatiotemporal disparities, with mortality hotspots in municipalities with healthcare institutions. Diverging socioeconomic trajectories in Flanders (Dutch-speaking North) and Wallonia (French-speaking South) contributed to shifting mortality rates, from the highest in Flanders in the early 20th century to the highest in Wallonia after 1950. A significant sex difference emerged in the second half of the 20th century, with men experiencing higher mortality. Despite an overall decline in TB from the mid-19th century, the decline was heterogeneous across regions and periods, suggesting a link between TB and socioeconomic conditions. Further research is needed to better understand the factors driving TB trends in Belgium from 1889 to 1991.

A major cholera pandemic struck Belgium in 1866, resulting in 43,400 deaths (around 30% of all deaths in 1866) and a drop in life expectancy of more than 5 years. Although cholera is often presented as an urban disease, the Belgian countryside was not spared, and the south of the province of Luxembourg was one of the gateways to the pandemic in 1866. This article answers two questions. Firstly, why were some areas heavily affected by the pandemic while others were spared? Secondly, what were the characteristics of individuals who recovered and those who died, and to what extent did they differ? In Belgium, the 1866 cholera pandemic was the subject of specific data production, giving rise to detailed nominal lists of people affected (cured or deceased) by the disease. This article is based on these individual data for municipalities located in the provinces of Namur and Luxembourg.In Belgium, the pandemic is affecting all the major towns, but cholera mortality rates are highest in certain rural municipalities. In addition, the situation is highly heterogeneous in the provinces of Namur and Luxembourg, with highly variable levels of incidence and mortality. The intensity of the pandemic is mainly determined by proximity to contagion hot spots (e.g. close to the Luxembourg border) and the presence of road, rail or sea links. Local spread depends on local mobility and population density. Concerning the determinants of cholera mortality, the analyses confirm the structuring effect of age, with a high risk of death among the most vulnerable, i.e. the youngest and the oldest. Differences were also observed according to the individuals’ socio-professional background and can be explained essentially by poverty, frequency of interpersonal contacts and proximity linked to working conditions.

A major cholera pandemic struck Belgium in 1866, resulting in 43,400 deaths (around 30% of all deaths in 1866) and a drop in life expectancy of more than 5 years. Although cholera is often presented as an urban disease, the Belgian countryside was not spared, and the south of the province of Luxembourg was one of the gateways to the pandemic in 1866. This article answers two questions. Firstly, why were some areas heavily affected by the pandemic while others were spared? Secondly, what were the characteristics of individuals who recovered and those who died, and to what extent did they differ? In Belgium, the 1866 cholera pandemic was the subject of specific data production, giving rise to detailed nominal lists of people affected (cured or deceased) by the disease. This article is based on these individual data for municipalities located in the provinces of Namur and Luxembourg.In Belgium, the pandemic is affecting all the major towns, but cholera mortality rates are highest in certain rural municipalities. In addition, the situation is highly heterogeneous in the provinces of Namur and Luxembourg, with highly variable levels of incidence and mortality. The intensity of the pandemic is mainly determined by proximity to contagion hot spots (e.g. close to the Luxembourg border) and the presence of road, rail or sea links. Local spread depends on local mobility and population density. Concerning the determinants of cholera mortality, the analyses confirm the structuring effect of age, with a high risk of death among the most vulnerable, i.e. the youngest and the oldest. Differences were also observed according to the individuals’ socio-professional background and can be explained essentially by poverty, frequency of interpersonal contacts and proximity linked to working conditions.

RésuméLes inégalités sociales de mortalité au-delà de 65 ans sont une problématique importante dans le contexte actuel de vieillissement de la population, d’augmentation de l’espérance de vie et de politiques visant à augmenter l’âge légal de départ à la retraite. Cet article pose trois questions : les inégalités sociales face à la mort, très présentes aux âges actifs, se maintiennent-elles durant la vieillesse ? Comment ont-elles évolué au cours de ces dernières décennies ? Quel est le rôle de l’état de santé sur le différentiel social de mortalité aux âges élevés ? Nous utiliserons une base de données appariant les informations du Registre national (1991-2016) avec celles des recensements de la population de 1991, 2001 et 2011. Des tables de mortalité par groupe social et état de santé subjectif ont été calculées et nous aurons aussi recours à des modèles de régression logistique. Les résultats montrent qu’au-delà de 65 ans, les inégalités sociales face à la mort sont importantes et ont même augmenté aux cours des 25 dernières années. En contrôlant l’état de santé, des différences de mortalité subsistent entre les groupes sociaux mais varient en importance en fonction du gradient social. Les plus âgés doivent donc faire l’objet d’une attention particulière, non seulement parce qu’il s’agit d’une population intrinsèquement plus fragile mais aussi parce que leurs effectifs croissent. Il s’agit là d’un défi actuel et futur majeur de santé publique.AbstractSocial inequalities in mortality beyond the age of 65 are an important issue in the current context of population ageing, increased life expectancy and policies aimed at extending the legal retirement age. This article asks three questions: do social inequalities in the face of death, which are very present at working ages, continue in old age? How have they evolved over the last few decades? What is the role of health status on the social differential in mortality at advanced ages? We will use a database matching information from the National Register (1991-2016) with information from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 population censuses. Mortality tables by social group and subjective health status have been calculated. We also use logistic regression models. The results show that social inequalities in the face of death beyond the age of 65 are significant and have even increased over the last 25 years. Controlling for health status, mortality differences remain between social groups but vary in magnitude along the social gradient. The elderly therefore need specialattention, not only because they are an inherently more fragile population, but also because their numbers are increasing. This is a major current and future public health challenge.

In Belgium, studies on divorce with a demographic approach are rare and those on its spatial dimension, especially in relation to internal migration, are almost non-existent. The objective of this article is to try to fill this gap, at least partially, by analysing the evolution of the spatial distribution of divorced people in Belgium since 1970 on the one hand, and the characteristics of the migration of newly divorced people on the other hand, while linking the two phenomena. This research is based on the exploitation of exhaustive data from the 1970 and 1981 population censuses and the DEMOBEL database constructed by Statbel (Statistics Belgium). The latter includes demographic information from the Belgian National Register for the period 1991-2017 coupled with data from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 population censuses. The mapping of the divorced in Belgium and its evolution since 1970 has highlighted a phenomenon of spatial diffusion, marked in the first part of the process by cultural and secularisation geography, and by a diffusion within the urban hierarchy. This geography of the divorced may also be shaped by their migration. Nevertheless, the results of the analyses highlight a strong local anchoring of the newly divorced, who most often remain in their local environment following the divorce. Moreover, the municipalities that receive the most newly divorced migrants also tend to be the municipalities where the divorced are over-represented, thus confirming that the migration of newly divorced people tends to reinforce existing spatial structures.

Background Poor housing conditions have been associated with increased mortality. Our objective is to investigate the association between housing inequality and increased mortality in Belgium and to estimate the number of deaths that could be prevented if the population of the whole country faced the mortality rates experienced in areas that are least deprived in terms of housing. Methods We used individual-level mortality data extracted from the National Register in Belgium and relative to deaths that occurred between Jan. 1, 1991, and Dec. 31, 2020. Spatial and time-specific housing deprivation indices (1991, 2001, and 2011) were created at the level of the smallest geographical unit in Belgium, with these units assigned into deciles from the most to the least deprived. We calculated mortality associated with housing inequality as the difference between observed and expected deaths by applying mortality rates of the least deprived decile to other deciles. We also used standard life table calculations to estimate the potential years of life lost due housing inequality. Results Up to 18.5% (95% CI 17.7–19.3) of all deaths between 1991 and 2020 may be associated with housing inequality, corresponding to 584,875 deaths. Over time, life expectancy at birth increased for the most and least deprived deciles by about 3.5 years. The gap in life expectancy between the two deciles remained high, on average 4.6 years. Life expectancy in Belgium would increase by approximately 3 years if all deciles had the mortality rates of the least deprived decile. Conclusions Thousands of deaths in Belgium could be avoided if all Belgian neighborhoods had the mortality rates of the least deprived areas in terms of housing. Hotspots of housing inequalities need to be located and targeted with tailored public actions.

In Belgium, studies on divorce with a demographic approach are rare and those on its spatial dimension, especially in relation to internal migration, are almost non-existent. The objective of this article is to try to fill this gap, at least partially, by analysing the evolution of the spatial distribution of divorced people in Belgium since 1970 on the one hand, and the characteristics of the migration of newly divorced people on the other hand, while linking the two phenomena. This research is based on the exploitation of exhaustive data from the 1970 and 1981 population censuses and the DEMOBEL database constructed by Statbel (Statistics Belgium). The latter includes demographic information from the Belgian National Register for the period 1991-2017 coupled with data from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 population censuses.The mapping of the divorced in Belgium and its evolution since 1970 has highlighted a phenomenon of spatial diffusion, marked in the first part of the process by cultural and secularisation geography, and by a diffusion within the urban hierarchy. This geography of the divorced may also be shaped by their migration. Nevertheless, the results of the analyses highlight a strong local anchoring of the newly divorced, who most often remain in their local environment following the divorce. Moreover, the municipalities that receive the most newly divorced migrants also tend to be the municipalities where the divorced are over-represented, thus confirming that the migration of newly divorced people tends to reinforce existing spatial structures.

The aim of this study is to investigate whether diffusion contributed to the geography and the speed of the fertility transition. To this end, we assembled a new and unique dataset from historical sources in Belgium containing yearly information on fertility at the municipality level and a range of structural and cultural indicators over 47 years (1887-1934). We use this dataset in diffusion models based on multilevel event-history analysis. We find that diffusion between neighboring places influenced the geography of the fertility transition only in its early stages; and diffusion accelerated the speed at which municipalities initiated fertility decline at the onset of the transition. We argue that, in the early stages of the transition, the bulk of people's interactions was confined to their own communities and neighboring places and, as such, new ideas, attitudes, and information about fertility would spread among adjacent areas. Later on, since the turn of the twentieth century, the way people interacted in space was transformed by the growing urbanization, the development of transportation infrastructure and labor migration. In this new context, opportunities for social learning were less constrained by space.