IntroductionNonnative fishes in streams and inland lakes can substantially alter aquatic ecosystems by degrading habitat conditions, competing with native species, and restructuring food webs. Identifying invasion hotspots can inform proactive management and prevention of nonnative species establishment.MethodsIn this study, we identified streams and lakes across the conterminous United States that are vulnerable to invasion by 18 nonnative stream and 28 nonnative lake fish species. Habitat suitability models were developed separately for stream and lake species across nine ecoregions using natural and anthropogenic predictors, and species occurrences were predicted by integrating model results with climate match scores based on comparisons between environmental conditions in species’ native and potential nonnative ranges. We classified areas with both high habitat suitability and strong climate similarity as having high invasion potential and generated hotspot maps by stacking species-level predictions.ResultsFlorida exhibits the highest invasion risk for both habitat types. Stream hotspots were concentrated near major metropolitan areas, whereas lake hotspots were more widely distributed across the Great Lakes basin and the northeastern U.S. Twelve species were predicted to invade both habitat types, with goldfish (Carassius auratus) and pirapitinga (Piaractus brachypomus) showing particularly high invasion potential.DiscussionThese findings provide a comprehensive assessment of nonnative freshwater fish invasion risk and support targeted monitoring and management strategies.

Fluvial fishes, those primarily inhabiting rivers and streams, are facing substantial threats in their native ranges from habitat degradation which contributes to decreases in richness and abundance of many species. Because distributions of fluvial species are often not well developed across large spatial scales, the ability to understand the consequences of threats is limited. Species distribution models were recently developed for roughly one third of freshwater fish species in the United States typically found in fluvial habitats. To highlight locations of potential value for species management and conservation, we developed 18 fluvial fish species richness metrics. Metrics were developed using results of 415 readily available species distribution models that indicate likelihood of species presence on approximately 2.3 million stream reaches of the conterminous United States as characterized by the National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2.1. Specific metrics fall into groups including the full set of 415 modeled species, migratory species, species of greatest conservation need, and game fish species, providing utility for varied conservation and management priorities of fluvial fishes.

To address increasing demand for ecological models of aquatic species that can inform the management of national freshwater resources, we leveraged manager input to develop suites of environmental data layers characterizing freshwater habitats for the contiguous United States. Using the National Hydrography Dataset, these new data cover lentic and lotic systems under current and near-future environmental conditions. The data include a variety of covariate categories including climate, soil chemistry, land use and land cover, and human modification of the surrounding landscape. The predictor resolution for atmospheric climate predictors was the lake (wetland) or stream reach, and, for the terrestrial proxies, the subwatershed (HUC12) surrounding the lake or stream reach was chosen to capture the relevant land features surrounding the habitat. Future land use, land cover and streamflow predictions were included from present to mid-century. These data are available for the development of freshwater ecological models in the contiguous United States for a variety of applications, including species distribution modeling and exploring change in spatially diverse aquatic systems in time.

Identifying habitats that non-native fluvial fishes are likely to invade provides information for proactive management, conservation planning, and understanding the ecology of biological invasions. We identified streams in the conterminous United States with high invasion risk from 20 non-native fluvial fish species. Specifically, we (1) developed habitat suitability models for each species using nine natural and six anthropogenic predictors within nine large ecoregions, identifying the potential invasion hotspots; (2) evaluated the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic predictors for each species; and (3) assessed potential invasion risk to protected stream habitats. Predicted invasion hotspots included much of Florida, coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana, and areas surrounding major metropolitan centers such as Chicago, New York, and Phoenix. Model predictions indicate that goldfish (Carassius auratus), pirapitinga (Piaractus brachypomus), and pond loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus) could occupy extensive suitable habitats across the conterminous United States. The most influential natural predictor across species was network catchment area (a surrogate for stream size), while the most influential anthropogenic predictor was human population density. Goldfish were predicted to be present in protected areas across all nine ecoregions, highlighting their high invasion potential. Collectively, our results provide critical information on regions vulnerable to invasion and the species most likely to become established and identify areas at risk of invasion within protected landscapes.

Biological invasions, driven by the spread of non-native species, have become a critical global issue because of their far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Effective communication of the risks of biological invasions is essential for implementing robust policy and legislation and gaining public support for conservation efforts. However, current policies often suffer from fragmentation and ineffectiveness, largely due to inadequate risk communication and complex multi-level governance. To address this challenge, we develop a global framework designed to enhance clearer communication about biological invasion risks. The framework contextualizes key terms across three domains in invasion science: species invasiveness, risk analysis, and decision support tools. Using both diffusion-of-English and ecology-of-language paradigms, and following a three-step process involving preliminary consensus, AI querying, and ground-truthing with final consensus, we validate the framework in 70 non-English languages which, together with English, have official status in at least one country and collectively cover all 195 countries worldwide. Our findings reveal that while terminology for risk analysis is well established, terminology for species invasiveness and, especially, for decision support tools remains underdeveloped in many languages, hindering effective communication and policy implementation. Our framework underscores the importance of cultural and political neutrality. By promoting clearer risk communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public globally, we aim to reduce policy fragmentation and foster enhanced collaboration in risk mitigation. We recommend expanding multilingual decision support tools to include the full risk analysis process: risk identification, risk assessment, and risk management. This will support intergovernmental mitigation efforts and promote a unified global response to biological invasions.

Flooded areas can create temporary connections between adjacent drainages and are a relatively understudied pathway for the spread of aquatic invasive species. The Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database’s Flood and Storm Tracker maps were developed to help natural resource managers with post-storm aquatic invasive species detection and assessment efforts. As of the summer of 2023, 16 Flood and Storm Tracker maps have been published from hurricanes and flooding events in the United States and territorial islands. Three regions along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean had overlapping areas of repeated flood impacts, and fifteen pairs of adjacent river basins were potentially connected during floods. Each map had a median of 77 non-native freshwater taxa and a median of 3 U.S. prohibited species within their respective flood-impacted area. The Flood and Storm Tracker maps provide resource managers with information about new aquatic invasions due to potential flood dispersal that can assist with early detection and rapid response systems.

The aquarium trade is a global industry responsible for the movement of live plants and animals, but it also serves as a major pathway for the introduction and spread of aquatic invasive species. Invasive species contribute to biodiversity loss, disrupt ecosystems, and can have widespread economic and societal impacts. A significant but poorly understood invasion risk in the plant aquarium trade is the transport of hitchhiking species, which are organisms unintentionally transported along with a species of primary interest in trade. Aquatic hitchhikers can persist in aquaria and later be released into the wild, potentially establishing invasive populations. While some studies have identified hitchhiking as a pathway for aquatic species spread, it remains largely unrecognized in international regulations. Increased awareness, triggered by incidents such as zebra mussels found in aquarium plants, highlights the need for further investigation into this emerging pathway of concern. As a response, we reviewed the current state of knowledge regarding aquatic plants in the aquarium trade as vectors for transporting invasive hitchhiking species, with a particular focus on how morphological complexity of plants influences associated hitchhikers. We found that although awareness of hitchhiking species in the aquarium trade is increasing, few studies have empirically examined aquarium plants as vectors for invasive species. Understanding this pathway can help to inform invasive species management around the plant aquarium trade and to keep aquarium organisms in a sustainable manner.

The spread of non-native freshwater mussels in North America is a growing threat that has already resulted in substantial ecological and economic damage to infested areas. A primary vector by which invasive mussels spread is watercraft that are transported over land from an infested waterbody to an uninfested waterbody. Management efforts such as watercraft inspection and detection programs that attempt to intercept infected watercraft can help limit this type of spread, but optimizing the effectiveness of these programs under limited resources is complicated. Studies have looked at developing watercraft inspection and decontamination program strategies that focus on policy-specific objectives such as maximizing the number of infested watercraft interceptions. However, there is limited work that has considered the heterogeneous impact of protection efforts across different regions and waterbodies. Knowledge about this heterogeneity can highlight regions that would benefit the most from protection as well as regions that would require less effort to protect, e.g., areas with naturally unsuitable water quality for dreissenids. To this end, we construct a composite relative risk index (CRR) for watersheds within the Missouri River Basin, a region in the United States on the front line of dreissenid spread. The CRR uses a model that mirrors an expected value model but uses relative indexing as a proxy for the model components. The CRR incorporates a wide array of data sets to account for the direct and indirect damages from a potential infestation along with the risk of an infestation occurring. Our results suggest that the relative priority of a specific watershed—measured through CRR—can depend on whether we consider the entire Missouri River Basin or just the watersheds in the same state. This also indicates substantial state-level heterogeneity in the CRR. Another contribution is that the CRR index includes user-specified weights for certain parameters so that a user can adjust the relative importance of various factors to match their specific context. An accompanying web tool allows users to view the CRR results and adjust multiple parameters to see the resulting impacts on the CCR for watersheds in the Missouri River Basin.

The United States imports thousands of live vertebrate species annually as part of legal trade. Escapes and releases from captivity are major pathways of invasion, however, the risk posed by the thousands of imported vertebrate species has not been systematically assessed. We conducted a horizon scan that used a data-driven climate match to filter a list of nearly 15,000 taxa drawn from across the globe of imported fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals for rapid assessment by taxonomic experts. Experts evaluated 840 species and identified 32 (22 reptiles and 10 fishes) as having the highest risk for establishment, spread, and negative impacts. Of those high-risk species, the majority have the capacity to disrupt ecosystem processes via their role as top predators or the unique ecological niches that they occupy, while several of the snake species pose a threat to human health. High-risk species were often scored with high confidence while in contrast, low scores were attributed to a combination of ecological redundancy, low propagule pressure, or low climate match while low confidence arose from a lack of information in the literature (i.e., data deficiency). Our study therefore highlights legally imported species likely to cause the greatest harm with the recognition that many other species could also become invasive in the United States. The ranked list of vertebrate threats can be used to prioritize watchlists and inform the development of targeted regulations for importation can be applied to regions to provide a rapid, preliminary screening for large pools of potential invaders.

Although the aquarium trade is an important pathway for direct and indirect non-native species introductions into freshwater systems, knowledge and attitudes of participants in the trade regarding alien species issues is largely undocumented. Therefore, we administered a survey to investigate attitudes and behaviors of aquarists and non-aquarists regarding the aquarium trade as a pathway for invasive species introductions. We hypothesized aquarists would be better educated on potential introductions than non-aquarists. Due to their engagement with organisms and replication of natural habitats, we also expected aquarists would exhibit more positive attitudes and behaviors toward the environment than non-aquarists. Most respondents seemingly understood the severity of invasive species problems, regardless of status as an aquarist. Aquarists thought the aquarium trade was less responsible for species introductions than non-aquarists and also felt more aware of laws regarding invasive species. However, over half of aquarists disposed of aquarium water down a drain in their house or directly into a nearby water body, which is a known mode of invasion. This information can inform further efforts to provide educational opportunities for participants in the non-native pet/aquarium trade, with the goal of enhancing protection efforts for native biodiversity.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework 2030 calls for the conservation of 30

First posted May 16, 2024 For additional information, contact: Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research ProgramU.S. Geological Survey12201 Sunrise Valley DriveReston, VA 20192Contact Pubs Warehouse The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers high-quality data, technologies, and decision-support tools to help managers both reduce existing populations and control the spread of dreissenid mussels. The USGS researches ecology, biology, risk assessment, and early detection and rapid response methods; provides decision support; and develops and tests control measures.

Preventing the spread of aquatic invasive species is an important management action. Identifying the characteristics of lakes that are susceptible to invasion creates an opportunity for management groups to prioritize limited resources for high-risk areas. In this study, we leveraged big data from a popular fishing app and other publicly available sources of environmental and human-use exposure measurements to develop machine learning models to predict aquatic invasive species presence in 30,375 lakes in the upper Mississippi river basin of the United States. Our results predicted that an additional 665, 771, 544, 703, and 638 lakes in the basin are invaded or at high risk of invasion by Eurasian watermilfoil, curly-leaf pondweed, rusty crayfish, Chinese mystery snail, and dreissenid mussels, respectively. Lake invasions were predicted by a combination of environmental, human-use exposure, and community dynamics variables. Features that made a lake more attractive to recreationists were consistently important across our models including the presence of a boat ramp, larger lake size, and surrounding natural landscape. The importance of co-occurring invasive species in some models could reflect several scenarios including invasional meltdown, facilitation among species, similar pathways for introduction, or similar response to the environment. Our models predicted a higher proportion of invasions in less popular lakes compared to known invasions. The finding underscores the potential importance of less popular lakes in the invasion process and suggests that the detection of invasions may be lower in these lakes. These results serve as a valuable tool for data-driven management decisions and can provide actionable insights for effective aquatic invasive species management.

While concepts regarding invasive species establishment patterns and eradication possibilities have long been a topic of invasion biology, the specific terminology referring to early detection of and rapid response to (EDRR) invasive species emerged in scientific literature during the early 2000s. Since then, the EDRR approach has expanded to include a suite of detection, planning, and management tools. By conducting a systematic literature review, we attempt to characterize the field of EDRR in the United States and its territories as reflected by publication records. Specifically, we assessed publication data such as the number of publications per year, the most common journals where papers were published, and the relationship between author's keywords for studies focusing on aquatic and terrestrial habitats. For publications that used invasive species occurrence or abundance data (whether collected for the purposes of the respective publication or acquired from another data source), we manually vetted additional information such as focal taxa, data collection years and locations, sources of other data used, and whether data or code were deposited in open access formats. We also conducted network analyses for the author institutions that coauthored papers together most frequently and for the references most cited by EDRR publications. Overall, we found that silos existed in terms of which author institutions worked together, which existing literature was cited, and which topics were frequently explored. We also found evidence of substantial gaps in data access and use. For example, although a wide variety of data sources for invasive species occurrences are available, these sources were seldom cited by published literature, and newly collected data were not often deposited into invasive species databases or other open-source data repositories. Considering the continued advocation for a centralized national EDRR information system, our study indicates that facilitating access to data, decision support tools, and other informational resources represents a key opportunity for improving EDRR capabilities.

Hundreds of fish species enter the United States through human intervention (e.g., importation) and some of these fishes pose a substantial risk to the nation's assets and ecosystems. Prevention, early detection, and rapid response (EDRR) are vital to stop species invasions, but time and resources to manage the large suite of fish species that enter the nation are limited. Evaluating the risk of a species' invasion in a location is one way to prioritize among many species for management action. Species risk assessments are often associated with information systems or are published within grey literature or peer -reviewed journal articles. Improving access to available risk assessments could help in prioritizing management action for the most potentially invasive fish species. We aggregated fish species risk assessments, synthesizing the current knowledge on the risk of fish invasions in the United States. To accomplish this, we searched information systems and conducted a literature review. We then summarized risk assessment results along with the importation statuses of fish species and identified if imported, high -risk species are managed under federal or state policy. Within the scope of the conterminous U.S., we found 98 high -risk fish species. Eighteen of these species are imported to the country, but only three species have been recently prohibited from importation according to the Lacey Act. We observed similar patterns at the scales of the Great Lakes region and Florida. Collectively, our work provides a baseline estimate of the high -risk fish invaders that enter the U.S. through importation, underscoring species to consider for priority management action, as well as a benchmark of species that lack risk assessments. Insights from this work can be enriched when joined with other invasive species information, which could be accomplished through a national EDRR information system, an information sharing hub in development by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Effective conservation of stream fishes and their habitats is complicated by the fact that human stressors alter the way in which natural factors such as stream size, catchment geology, and regional climate influence stream ecosystems. Consequently, efforts to assess the condition of stream fishes and their habitats must not only attempt to characterize the effects of human stressors but must account for the effects of natural influences as well. This study is an assessment of all stream fish habitats in the Mississippi River basin, USA. The basin supports over 400 stream fish species, drains a land area of 3.2 M km2, and includes a myriad of human stressors such as intensive agriculture, urbanization, nutrient loading, and habitat fragmentation by dams and road/stream crossings. To effectively characterize types and levels of human stressors specifically impacting the basin’s stream fish species, our assessment approach first accounted for the influence of natural landscape conditions on species abundances with multiple steps, including stratifying our analyses by region and stream size and quantitatively modeling the influences of natural factors on stream fishes. We next quantified individual fish species responses to explicit human stressors for different measures of land use, fragmentation, and water quality, including summaries of measures in local vs. catchment extents. Results showed that many species had negative threshold responses to human stressors and that impacts varied by species, by region, and by the spatial extents in which stressors were summarized. Our spatially explicit results indicated the degree of stream reach impairment for specific stressor categories, for individual species, and for entire assemblages, all of which are types of information that can aid decision makers in achieving specific conservation goals in the region.

Warming winters due to climate change can facilitate the range expansion of invasive non-native species. In the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme winter temperatures determines the northern range limits of many tropical organisms including many species of invasive non-native plants. However, the effects of winter climate change on invasive species’ range limits have been understudied. Here, we used temperature and species occurrence data to examine the sensitivity of invasive tropical plant species to freezing temperatures. We also examined the potential for northward range expansion of these species due to winter climate change. From an initial group of 81 invasive plant species selected due to their ability to transform native plant communities, our analyses identify and quantify species-specific temperature thresholds for 40 tropical, cold sensitive species. Future winter warming scenarios indicate that these tropical invasive plant species have the potential for northward range expansion across the southeastern United States in response to small changes in the severity of winter cold temperature extremes. The potential for range expansion is greatest in coastal areas, which typically have warmer temperatures than inland counterparts. Thus, coastal regions are likely to serve as biological invasion hotspots from which invasive species expand into inland areas. The state of Florida has become a global hotspot for biological invasions, with tens of millions of dollars (US) spent annually to control the ecological and societal impacts of invasive plants on publicly held conservation lands. Collectively, our results underscore the need to better anticipate and prepare for the northward range expansion of invasive plants from Florida into the southeastern United States in response to winter climate change.

Managing invasive species with prevention and early-detection strategies can avert severe ecological and economic impacts. Horizon scanning, an evidence-based process combining risk screening and consensus building to identify threats, has become a valuable tool for prioritizing invasive species management and prevention. We assembled a working group of experts from academic, government, and nonprofit agencies and organizations, and conducted a multi-taxa horizon scan for Florida, USA, the first of its kind in North America. Our primary objectives were to identify high-risk species and their introduction pathways, to detail the magnitude and mechanism of potential impacts, and, more broadly, to demonstrate the utility of horizon scanning. As a means to facilitate future horizon scans, we document the process used to generate the list of taxa for screening. We evaluated 460 taxa for their potential to arrive, establish, and cause negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and identified 40 potential invaders, including alewife, zebra mussel, crab-eating macaque, and red swamp crayfish. Vertebrates and aquatic invertebrates posed the greatest invasion threat, over half of the high-risk taxa were omnivores, and there was high confidence in the scoring of high-risk taxa. Common arrival pathways were ballast water, biofouling of vessels, and escape from the pet/aquarium/horticulture trade. Competition, predation, and damage to agriculture/forestry/aquaculture were common impact mechanisms. We recommend full risk analysis for the high-risk taxa; increased surveillance at Florida's ports, state borders, and high-risk pathways; and periodic review and revision of the list. Few horizon scans detail the comprehensive methodology (including list-building), certainty estimates for all scoring categories and the final score, detailed pathways, and the magnitude and mechanism of impact. Providing this information can further inform prevention efforts and can be efficiently replicated in other regions. Moreover, harmonizing methodology can facilitate data sharing and enhance interpretation of results for stakeholders and the general public.

Prevention of non-native species introductions and establishment is essential to avoid adverse impacts of invasive species in marine environments. To identify potential new invasive species and inform non-native species management options for the northern Gulf of Mexico (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas), 138 marine species were risk screened for current and future climate conditions using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. Species were risk-ranked as low, medium, high, and very high risk based on separate (calibrated) thresholds for fishes, tunicates, and invertebrates. In the basic screening, 15 fishes, two tunicates, and 26 invertebrates were classified as high or very high risk under current climate conditions. Whereas, under future climate conditions, 16 fishes, three tunicates, and 33 invertebrates were classified as high or very high risk. Very high risk species included: California scorpionfish Scorpaena guttata , red scorpionfish Scorpaena scrofa , purple whelk Rapana venosa , and Santo Domingo false mussel Mytilopsis sallei under both current and future climates, with weedy scorpionfish Rhinopias frondosa , Papuan scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis papuensis , daggertooth pike conger Muraenesox cinereus , yellowfin scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis neglecta , tassled scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis oxycephalus , brush-clawed shore crab Hemigrapsus takanoi , honeycomb oyster Hyotissa hyotis , carinate rock shell Indothais lacera , and Asian green mussel Perna viridis under climate change conditions only. This study provides evidence to inform trans-boundary management plans across the five Gulf of Mexico states to prevent, detect, and respond rapidly to new species arrivals.