采用水足迹理论分析江苏省2000-2010年水资源的真实利用情况,同时从投入产出的角度出发,选取农业用水量、工业用水量、生活用水量、COD排放总量、固定资产投资总额和从业人员数作为投入指标,GDP和粮食产量作为产出指标,运用数据包络分析中的C2R和BC2模型对这11a间江苏省的水资源利用效率进行评价.研究表明:2010年江苏省的水足迹为778.28m3,总体呈缓慢上升趋势.农业用水、工业用水和虚拟水贸易是江苏省水资源利用中的主要组成部分.11a间DEA有效年份占64%,投入冗余和产出不足均为0,即投入和产出达到最优状态.在DEA无效年份中存在冗余,存在资源浪费和污染高排放的情况.可以通过DEA投影结果对其进行改进,实现资源的最优配置.
In recent years,the socio-economic development of Jiangsu Province has entered a new period of rapid development,which is accompanied by the high consumption of energy and the enormous emission of GHG.In 2010,the GDP of Jiangsu Province was 4.142 5 trillion yuan,which is 20% higher than 2009.Meanwhile,in the same year Jiangsu Province consumed 257.737 million tons of standard coal equivalent,with 80% of the energy imported from other provinces.Nowadays energy consumption and economic growth are becoming increasingly salient conflicts in Jiangsu Province.At the same time,GHG emissions also become one of the main restrict factors of economic development in Jiangsu Province.Due to high energy consumption,Jiangsu Province produced 621.2 million tons of CO2 emissions,and GDP per capita CO2 emissions were 3.34 tons/ten thousand Yuan in the year 2005.While in the year 2008 the CO2 emissions were 833.4 million tons and GDP per capita CO2 emissions were 2.69 tons/ten thousand Yuan.The GDP per capita CO2 emissions of the year 2008 just fell by 19.8%,compared to that of the year 2005.According to the actual situation in Jiangsu Province,the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System Model is involved to develop Jiangsu Model in our empirical study.Two scenarios,reference scenario and sustainable development scenario,are set by the potential and vital factors affecting energy demand in Jiangsu Province.The future energy demand and CO2 emission trends in each scenario from 2010 to 2050 are simulated and predicted,and accordingly,the energy development stratagems for Jiangsu Province are put forward as conclusion.The results of our empirical study show that,in two kinds of scenarios,the total energy demand of Jiangsu Province will continue to rise until the year 2045.In the reference scenario,the total energy demand of Jiangsu Province will be 331.075,394.057,482.775 and 472.999 million tons of standard coal equivalent in the year 2020,2030,2040 and 2050,respectively.While the total energy demand in the sustainable development scenario is assumed to fell by 12.50% in the year 2020,7.34% in the year 2030,11.5% in 2040 and 17.9% in the year 2050,compared to that of the reference scenario.In future,the second industry is still energy-intense sector,but on development trends,and its proportion of the total energy demand by the second industry will be reduced.In contrast,the energy consumption by the tertiary industry,ranked the second,is assumed to rise gradually.The primary energy demand in the future will still give priority to coal,but because of treatment costs and other constraints,the coal demand increase slowly,and the proportion of coal demand is assumed to decline.However,the share of renewable energy is assumed to rise steadily,and it may become the important alternative energy sources for coal.Research also shows that the CO2 emission and CO2 emission intensity in sustainable development scenario is lower than that in reference scenario.
The paper attempted to employ the water footprint approach to calculate the situation of water resource in Jiangsu Province between 2000 and 2009, and investigate the changes of water utilization and water pressure in economic growth by introducing the conceptual model of "re-linking" and "de-linking". The total water footprint of Jiangsu was on the slightly rise from 699.82 in 2000 to 773.77 billion cubic meters in 2009, mainly consists of the agricultural water and the industrial water. Simultaneously, the water utilization level kept continuous growth, increasing by 2.77 times in the last decade. However, the weak "de-linking" and strong "de-linking" status between water resource and economic growth accounted for two-thirds and one-third of the sample years, separately. The alternative change of weak "de-linking" and strong "de-linking" status showed the pressure of water resource still existed in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization, and, therefore, strategies should be adopted for more vigorous economic development and consistent water resource use in Jiangsu.
The study combines the Material Flow Analysis method and the Ecological Footprint Model to establish an indicator system of sustainable development.On the base of the indicator system, the state of ecological sustainable development during 2000-2010 in Tongling City was appraised.The results show that: (1 ) The direct material input ( DMI) keeps increasing averagely, with a value in 2010 2. 65 times higher than in 2000.The proportion of imports goes downward, while the DMI still depends heavily on import activities.Domestic hidden flow takes a large percentage in DPO;(2) The resource productivity of Tongling City has lagged behind the average of the whole country, though a progress has been made in the past decade; (3) Ecological footprint shows an increasing trend, with 7 hm 2 per capita in 2010.The gap between the ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity has been widening; (4) The indicator system shows that the level of sustainable development of the city is gradually decreasing.To achieve a real sustainable development, it is necessary to adjust the proportions among the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and transform the mode of economic development by building circulation economy.
In this paper, the methods of emergy analysis and data envelopment analysis (DEA) were adopted to establish a measurement model of eeoefficieney of urban material metabolism. The sustainable development of eeo-eeonomy system in Nanjing City during 1990 -2010 was evaluated in the respects of metabolic flux and eeoefficiency. The results showed: (1) in the last 21 years, the energy yield rate and sustainability index were continually reducing, while environmental loading rate was increasing constantly; (2) eeoeffieieney kept an increasing trend as a whole, and the resource ecoetticiency had been lower than environmental ecoeffficiency during 1990 - 2006. Since then in spite of the increasing ecoefficieney, the development faced an obstacle of speedy increasing environmental pressure. Therefore some measures should be taken in Nanjing such as optimizing the input composition of emergy, strengthening development of renewable energy, improving utilization rate of nonrenewable resources and promoting wastes reusing.
The establishment of reasonable standards for ecological compensation has significant implication in the sustainability of regional economy.Based on the main function zoning,the value of ecological compensation paid by the external part was accounted by analyzing the cost for a county in northern Jiangsu Province as a conservation area to realize the service function of eco-system and determining the cost-sharing coefficient on the basis of the theory of location quotient.The value of ecological compensation in the county during 2010-2020 was calculated to be 5.28 billion RMB yuan.The accounting of the ecological cost induced by realizing the main function zoning was designed,and it would be convenient to the determination of the ecological compensation standards for the main function zoning.