Parameter uncertainty in generating capacity reliability evaluation

A simple and computationally efficient method of including uncertainty concepts in generating capacity reliability evaluation of an isolated system is described. Extension of the method to two interconnected systems is also presented. In addition, a simple procedure for developing an equivalent reliability model for two groups of parallel components connected in series is discussed. The method is then used to study the impact of uncertainties in system parameters of radial and dual interconnected systems on their reliability indices. Numerical examples illustrating the effects of various uncertainties in system parameters on the system indices are presented.