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流行性乙型脑炎预警指标体系研究

Li WANG,Liang-ping LU,Fen MA,Bo YANG,Xian-jia ZENG,Li PAN,Hui LI,Kang-lin WAN

Disease Surveillance（2011）

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Abstract
目的 建立流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)预警指标体系.方法 首先采用文献调研和专家会议法拟订乙脑预警指标体系初始框架和指标,然后应用德尔菲法确定预警指标和指标权重.结果 建立了包括人群免疫水平、传播媒介、贮存宿主、社会因素及病例相关指标的5项一级预警指标及对应的10个二级预警指标.结论 建立了适用于中国乙脑防控的预警指标体系,但需要利用历史疫情对该指标体系的信度和效度进行评价,并在实际应用中进一步完善.
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Key words
Japanese encephalitis,Delphi method,early warning,indicator system
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