Research On The Economy Fluctuations With Energy Consumption Of China Based On H-Pfiltration

The relationship between the energy consumption (EC) and the economy growth of China during the period of 1981 to 2008 was studied with the application of co-integration approaches base on H-P filtration. The results show that a stationary positive relationship between the total energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) exists, and the main reason of the rising energy consumption is the continuous growing of GDP.The characteristic of common trends and volatilities between the energy consumption and the economy growth was obtained after H-P filtration. From the view of trend components, a long-term equilibrium relation between the two sides was clearly proved, which explains that the growth of China's energy consumption is inevitable in a considerable period. However, it was found that in a long-term, the growth of GDP doesn't necessarily depend on the large input of energy. The economy cycle will profoundly affect the energy cycle components, and the both sides will be linked more closely in the future. However, different energy consumption cycles have a little different influencing factors. For example, in the period of 1997 to 2004, with the rapid development of economy in China the energy consumption cycle had a greater volatility under the influence of both energy structure and industry structure. Therefore, the transitions of economy development model need to be accelerated and the measures of energy-saving and cost-reducing need to be developed.