A dissipative deterministic BTW model with an activation scenario of strong events

An increase in seismic activity is usually a precursor of a strong earthquake. Grid models of earthquake formation related to the BTW sandpile model [Bak et al., 1987] reflect regularities close to those observed in reality; however, they demonstrate “incorrect” prognostic properties. Strong model earthquakes are preceded by a certain quiescence [Pepke and Carlson, 1994]. Weak dissipation of the BTW model is evidently responsible for its inversion scenario. We will construct a generalization of the BTW model with nontrivial dissipation. In the new model, a strong earthquake is preceded by an outburst of activity, which agrees with the dynamics of real seismicity. Strong events can be predicted with definite efficiency. The prediction efficiency is nonuniform in time.