ESTUDIO Y COMPARACIÓN DE MODELOS BASADOS EN RATIOS PARA LA PREDICCIÓN DE INSOLVENCIAS EN SEGUROS NO VIDA

SUMMARY One of the main objectives of the insurance sector public supervision is to guarantee an adequate level of solvency. To achieve this goal it is necessary that the prudential supervisor has in place an early warning system that allows it to react in a timely manner before the institution soundness is too damaged that it was not possible to get the situation back. This article addresses the analysis of the estimation of the probability of insolvency in the insurance sector using financial ratios. The aim of the article is to compare the performance of three models widely used in the US for this purpose. First, the RBC used by the NAIC, the BCAR used by the A. M. BestCompany and the FAST model use by the NAIC as an early warning system are briefly described. Two empirical studies where the RBC model performance is compared with the other two models using two different US insurance companies' samples are presented. Finally some conclusions are highlighted in the paper in view of the results of these studies.