A simple novel model to predict hospital mortality, surgical site infection, and pneumonia in elderly patients undergoing operation.

Background/Aims: Predicting models of operative morbidity and mortality in the geriatric population are important in the prevention of adverse surgical outcomes. Methods: A retrospective review of medical records was performed for patients over 80 years of age who underwent gastrointestinal surgery from 1998 to 2008. Results: 215 patients were identified with a mean age of 83.7 years. Overall morbidity and mortality rates were 48.8 and 14.4%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that serum albumin levels [odds ratio (OR) = 0.367, p = 0.0267], postoperative pneumonia (OR = 3.471, p = 0.0101), hollow organ perforation or anastomosis combined with leakage (OR = 7.600, p = 0.0126), and preoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome (OR = 3.186, p = 0.0323) were significant predictors of hospital mortality. Moreover, albumin (OR = 0.270, p = 0.0002) and physical disability (OR = 3.802, p = 0.0009) were significant predictors of postoperative pneumonia, and albumin (OR = 0.491, p = 0.0212) and enterotomy (OR = 3.335, p = 0.0208) were significant predictors of surgical site infections. Conclusion: This study provides novel predicting models to identify the elderly surgical patients at high risk, who should receive more intensive preventive and perioperative care. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel