Imitation Analysis Early Prediction Of The Market Demand For Major Innovations

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to describe a method of estimating the likelihood that a person with particular characteristics will imitate a particular new behaviour (i.e. the use of an innovation). This estimation can be used to provide a new form of forecast for the likely market demand for an innovation.Design/methodology/approach - This method, termed imitation analysis, is based on imitation theories from the behavioural sciences and is applied in two recent case studies in The Netherlands: broadcast TV on mobile phones and a mobile friend-network service.Findings - These cases illustrate how: the market segments with the highest potential can be identified; marketing communication can be focused on specific issues important for each segment (e.g. based on the highest imitation potential); product design can be improved (by highlighting the characteristics with the most room for improving the imitation potential); and market demand can be modelled (the overall chance of imitation occurring).Practical implications - Management implications for the two services, as well as the usefulness of imitation analysis in forecasting studies, are discussed.Originality/value - The paper expands on original work published in this journal in 2005, showing the value of the approach in real-world settings.