The Impact Of Visa-Free Entry On Outbound Tourism: A Case Study Of South Korean Travellers Visiting Japan

Although visa-free entry is important to tourism flows across borders there has been limited academic research into the effects of this arrangement on international tourism demand. Using the ARIMA, the ARIMA intervention, Winters Exponential Smoothing and the Stepwise Autoregressive models, this study examined the effect of visa-free entry on tourism demand between South Korea and Japan, and estimated the impact of this visa-free travel on tourism numbers and receipts. The results showed that for Koreans visiting Japan, introducing visa-free travel was statistically significant with a positive sign. In the first year tourists increased by 12.1 percent and receipts by $US246 million and in the second year tourists increased by 25 percent and receipts by $US792 million. The key finding is that in a market with strong effective demand, the influence of a change to visa-free entry could be greater than 20 percent. However, as individual, national and external reasons modulate each context, further research into the influence of visa controls on various established tourism markets is recommended.