The 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus And Its Effects On The Presidential Nomination Contest

We surveyed Iowa caucus goers and other Republicans to assess how representative the 2012 caucuses were of Republicans in Iowa. We find that demographically and ideologically, people reporting they would attend the caucus were quite similar to self-identified Iowa Republicans who said they would not caucus. We then model outcomes in Iowa and New Hampshire as a function of mass media expectations and find the model predicts Mitt Romney's Iowa vote share well but underpredicts Rick Santorum's Iowa result substantially. As in previous elections, we find national media attention shifted to a candidate (Santorum) who the media overlooked prior to Iowa and that this likely made Santorum's eventual second-place finish possible. Romney strengthened his front-runner share of media attention by meeting expectations in Iowa and then winning New Hampshire. This study confirms research documenting the important influence that early states have in the nomination process.