Potential reduction in terrestrial salamander ranges associated with Marcellus shale development

•We model the occurrence of terrestrial salamanders in the Marcellus shale play.•We predict range losses from two future development scenarios.•Range losses vary greatly with the spatial pattern of development.•Plethodon electromorphus, P. wehrlei, and P. richmondi had highest predicted losses.•There is high uncertainty in species ranges, indicating pressing research need.