Using a deterministic population model to evaluate population stability and the effects of fruit harvesting and livestock on baobab ( Adansonia digitata L.) populations in five land-use types

•Fruit harvest levels of 33–90% sustainable under moderate to zero livestock numbers.•High livestock numbers result in baobab population decline.•Baboon predation of immature fruit results in baobab population decline.•Infrequent in-season rainfall is a threat to successful recruitment.•Active planting is required to secure the future of baobab populations in arid areas.