The Implications For Personnel-Selection Of Apparent Declines In Predictive Validities Over Time - A Critique Of Hulin, Henry, And Noon

Hulin, Henry, and Noon (1990) reviewed evidence from a number of studies which supported, in their view, the position that predictive validities decreased over time. If correct, their results would have significant implications for personnel selection practice and research. However, further analysis of their evidence suggested that their results may have only limited generalizability. More specifically, few of the studies they used to support their claim of decreasing predictive validities were field studies of prediction-criterion pairs. Furthermore, reported data on lagged intercorrelations were of limited relevance to the question of decreasing validities. Finally, a large body of data relevant to the issue of time-lagged validities in a personnel selection context were omitted because the data did not meet Hulin et al.'s restrictive criteria.